AL-Trafalgar: Moore +5

[Brittain33]

Let's stay on topic to this Alabama poll. --Mod

[Matty]

Why does it seem like MT-Treasurer and IceSpear cause every thread to go off the rails?

[MT Treasurer]

Why does it seem like MT-Treasurer and IceSpear cause every thread to go off the rails?

1. Pointing out that Trafalgar is far from a perfect pollster isn't trolling. They underestimated Northam by like 8 points and did poorly in the AL GOP primary runoff as well.
2. Speaking of trolling... you might want to check out this thread. And what about that IA poll your twin brother leaked to you?
3. I know you're sweating like a dog over this race, but don't blame me or IceSpear for the fact that it is close

[Sumner 1868]

Is anyone else a little suspicious at MT Treasurer's posts on this race? I think he must be planning on busing Angry New Hampshire Women to Alabama for the Jones campaign.

[Mr. Smith]

Is anyone else a little suspicious at MT Treasurer's posts on this race? I think he must be planning on busing Angry New Hampshire Women to Alabama for the Jones campaign.

Like he bused in people for Georgia's 6th when he was adamant about Ossoff?

Or is doing that a reverse psychology trick? In which case he got Handel to do better than the combined R vote, impressive trick.

[new_patomic]

Trafalgar has Moore winning 18-25 year olds by a 20+ point margin.

With the cross-tabs also being that 18-25 year olds are... 48 percent white to 41 percent black?

That all together strikes me as... suspicious.

[OneJ]

Trafalgar has Moore winning 18-25 year olds by a 20+ point margin.

With the cross-tabs also being that 18-25 year olds are... 48 percent white to 41 percent black?

That all together strikes me as... suspicious.

Probably a low sample size. Some previous polls do show Jones doing much better with this group, however.

[Xing]

Yeah, Trafalgar has definitely been wrong before, but this seems to be in line with other polls. Let's not kid ourselves, Senator Pedophile (R-AL) is inevitable.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, Trafalgar has definitely been wrong before, but this seems to be in line with other polls. Let's not kid ourselves, Senator Pedophile (R-AL) is inevitable.

At the same time, there may be a reason this is in line with other polls. Perhaps the race is around this margin, or perhaps no pollster wants to be the one that called the race incorrectly.

[HAnnA MArin County]

The deplorables are coming home to roost.

[IceSpear]

I made a handy flowchart for Atlas poll reactions. Should I add anything else?

Does the poll say what you want to hear and/or fit your preconceived notions?
Yes -> Great poll!
No v

Does the poll have questionable demographics?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No v

Does the poll have questionable crosstabs?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No v

Does the pollster have a questionable track record?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No -> Outlier!

[Sestak]

I made a handy flowchart for Atlas poll reactions. Should I add anything else?

Does the poll say what you want to hear and/or fit your preconceived notions?
Yes -> Great poll!
No v

Does the poll have questionable demographics?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No v

Does the poll have questionable crosstabs?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No v

Does the pollster have a questionable track record?
Yes -> Junk poll!
No -> Outlier! v

Is this poll in line with other polls?
Yes -> Herding!
No -> Outlier!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some gold standard this is.