Could this have been the 2008 map if Hillary ran against McCain?
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  Could this have been the 2008 map if Hillary ran against McCain?
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Author Topic: Could this have been the 2008 map if Hillary ran against McCain?  (Read 2441 times)
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Just Passion Through
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« on: January 10, 2018, 03:57:47 PM »



Polls taken before the Democratic primaries were over suggest that Hillary, had she been the nominee, would have underperformed in the upper Midwest but significantly outperformed Obama's numbers in the South.



Would these trends have persisted if Hillary won the nomination, or would the map have stabilized and produced a similar outcome to the real election?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2018, 04:00:30 PM »

I highly doubt it. Even if she wins by more than Obama, the difference would probably be more in terms of margins rather than states carried. In terms of states carried, I could see her winning MO while losing IN. Otherwise I think the map would look the same.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2018, 04:02:45 PM »

I'd say she could have achieved your map plus Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Colorado but take away Kentucky
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2018, 10:49:13 PM »

She was almost definitely gonna win Arkansas, as back then it was still fairly willing to elect Democrats. Gore and Kerry were just bad fits for it at the time. She might have matched Obama's performance in the Midwest by the time of the election though, due to the effect the recession had on the region.
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2018, 02:33:00 PM »

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Pngs/Jun03.png

Obama map from same date.

Clearly that map was overly premature.
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twenty42
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2018, 03:55:11 PM »

This would be my best guess for Hillary vs. McCain 2008:



I think IN, NC, and VA were part of the Obama wave, so they stay Republican against Hillary. I do think Hillary does better than Obama in MO and narrowly flips it. AR, KY, TN, WV are tighter than they were in OTL, but they stay R.

Probably a 5-6% Clinton victory in the PV.
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2018, 04:15:17 PM »

Clinton flips MO, AR, WV, and MT; while winning all actual Obama 2008 states.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2018, 10:58:35 PM »

I doubt it.  Kentucky’s a huge stretch, though she probably would have won Arkansas and made West Viginia close.

Hillary would not have lost Wisconsin and Michigan, lol.

I’m guessing her map map would have been Obama’s plus MO and AR and minus IN and NC.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2018, 04:03:17 AM »

She would’ve won Arkansas and Missouri, carrying the entire midwest but losing VA and maybe NC.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2018, 04:21:34 AM »



I'll go out on a limb and say that Hillary would have won Arkansas, which still was Clinton State at that time. The PUMAs mattered much back then.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2018, 04:30:32 AM »

To answer the actual question:
Simply no.

You have to consider that a devastating economy crisis was going on and that Bush was an extremely unpopular president back then. Plus, under a very old, ailing President McCain the USA would have run the risk of getting a President Palin. There's no way Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa would have voted McCain. I'm not sure about Colorado, which is a bad fit for Clinton, but she'd probably have had a leg-up on him.
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2018, 10:02:23 AM »

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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2018, 01:14:05 PM »



I'll go out on a limb and say that Hillary would have won Arkansas, which still was Clinton State at that time. The PUMAs mattered much back then.


Flip WV Dem and maybe IN if she choose Bayh as her VP
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2018, 04:58:51 PM »

A Clinton/Obama ticket would have crushed.
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super6646
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2018, 11:28:31 PM »



I'll go out on a limb and say that Hillary would have won Arkansas, which still was Clinton State at that time. The PUMAs mattered much back then.

This map, but Virginia greyed out. Really could've gone either way.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2018, 12:21:37 PM »

Lol, Clinton wouldn't have carried Montana. My guess is Obama 2008 - IN - NC - maybe CO + maybe MO.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2018, 03:35:06 PM »

Lol, Clinton wouldn't have carried Montana. My guess is Obama 2008 - IN - NC - maybe CO + maybe MO.
Why couldn't she have carried Montana? Obama only lost it by 2% and I think Clinton would've done better with white voters than Obama did.
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