AL-Change Research: Moore +6 (final poll)

[The Other Castro]

Roy Moore - 51%
Doug Jones - 45%

1 point gain for Jones since the previous poll.

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-holds-six-point-lead-on-election-eve-51c1f6502a4b

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

[Pericles]

DOUG-MENTUM!

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

[Matty]

DOUG-MENTUM!

More like statistically insignificant movement

[kyc0705]

New rule: Anyone who attempts to predict the outcome, turnout, and/or margins of this race with anything approaching total certainty is a hack who has no idea what they're talking about.

[President Johnson]

Why isn't the write-in Republican not picking up more support? Maybe that could throw the election to Jones with a plurality of the votes.

[Doimper]

This election is wild.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

In similar races, like MA '10 and MO '12, all of the late polls showed Brown/McCaskill ahead. Here we're seeing a mixed bag at best for Jones. I stand by my earlier statement that Jones has about a 30% chance of victory, but obviously I'm going to go with the 70% chance Moore has from a prognostication standpoint.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

In similar races, like MA '10 and MO '12, all of the late polls showed Brown/McCaskill ahead. Here we're seeing a mixed bag at best for Jones. I stand by my earlier statement that Jones has about a 30% chance of victory, but obviously I'm going to go with the 70% chance Moore has from a prognostication standpoint.

30% ≠ Over. 30% chance is pretty significant, and 70% is very far from a sure thing.

[IceSpear]

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This is what we're dealing with, folks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

In similar races, like MA '10 and MO '12, all of the late polls showed Brown/McCaskill ahead. Here we're seeing a mixed bag at best for Jones. I stand by my earlier statement that Jones has about a 30% chance of victory, but obviously I'm going to go with the 70% chance Moore has from a prognostication standpoint.

30% ≠ Over. 30% chance is pretty significant, and 70% very far from a sure thing.

I seem to recall some other election recently where one candidate was given a 30% chance and won...now what was that...

(This is of course not meant to imply that one 30% event occurring means that another necessarily will; I'm just agreeing with Castro that 30% is indeed far from "over".)

[Landslide Lyndon]

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This is what we're dealing with, folks.

Some people are born 65 years old.

Seriously though, why do a poll Friday and then another one Monday. Of course there will be no change.

[The Other Castro]

Was this landline-only too?

It says it was conducted online.

[DrScholl]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

[Matty]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

Which ones? Only fox is showing jones ahead

Are you saying fox should be trusted over the 7 other recent polls? That seems a bit hopeful

[The Other Castro]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

Which ones? Only fox is showing jones ahead

Are you saying fox should be trusted over the 7 other recent polls? That seems a bit hopeful

Traditional, live-caller, reputable pollsters: WashPost (J+3), FOX (J+10), Monmouth (Tie).

[Matty]

I feel like live caller polls could actually be less accurate when one guy is an accused child molester

[Sestak]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

Which ones? Only fox is showing jones ahead

Are you saying fox should be trusted over the 7 other recent polls? That seems a bit hopeful

Traditional, live-caller, reputable pollsters: WashPost (J+3), FOX (J+10), Monmouth (Tie).

Yeah. Especially with Fox's reported cell phone swing.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When we start screaming fake news when we see something we don't agree with, we are no better than the intolerant garbage coming from a large part of the GOP today. Again, not all GOP, just some, a loud some.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

It's not the pollsters people don't trust, it's Alabama.

[Brittain33]

I feel like live caller polls could actually be less accurate when one guy is an accused child molester

This does worry me.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I am willing to go down with the ship here, but my final prediction is Jones +3.

[Cactus Jack]

I am willing to go down with the ship here, but my final prediction is Jones +3.

Good man. Now batten down for a firebombing at the hands of the usual trolls and pants-s**tters.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I am willing to go down with the ship here, but my final prediction is Jones +3.

Good man. Now batten down for a firebombing at the hands of the usual trolls and pants-s**tters.

Most the skeptics want Jones to win though. It's just that we're not going to put faith in freaking Alabama just to get burned. Particularly when Moore is still ahead in the RCP average.

Look at the intensity gap and how much the Democrats were able to outperform the polls. Strong disapproval is in the mid to high 40's and strong approval is in the low 20's. Democrats outperformed the RCP average by 6 in VA and had some stunningly close over performances in the earlier house special elections.