Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[junior chįmp]

Rapin' Roy choked like the absolute dog:

[Tender Branson]

Awesome.

AL did it like Austria last year and dodged the extremist bullet.

And I'm extremely happy with my Jones+1.4 and turnout prediction.

After military and provisionals, this might be the final margin.

[Sumner 1868]

Jones did better in North Alabama than I expected.

[Hydera]

Sadly Moore over performed in rural areas compared to his 2012 run.

this map reminds me of something...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

[Former Kentuckian]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

[Electroneer]

I'd never thought that a moderate, let alone a Democrat, in the state of Alabama would win a federal seat. Congrats to Doug Jones and his campaign for a job well done, even if he is almost surely going to lose in 2020.

[Holmes]

Moore didn't visit Mobile or Shelby counties in the last month of the election. Basically "Hillary never visited Wisconsin" but on the other side of the equation.

[john cage bubblegum]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

Agree that that take is highly overrated.  Yeah, Roy Moore being in the Senate would further repulse the demographic groups that have already been repulsed by the Trump era.  But, really, how many votes would Moore gain a Democrat running a congressional race in another state?  A few votes, perhaps.  But the Dems having a Senator from Alabama (!) for 3 years is much more valuable, particularly in such a closely divided Senate..

[ursulahx]

I just woke up to hear the BBC leading with this news. I’m astonished, and very, very glad to have been wrong. Again.

[Former Kentuckian]

Moore didn't visit Mobile or Shelby counties in the last month of the election. Basically "Hillary never visited Wisconsin" but on the other side of the equation.

Not only is he a terrible person, he's a terrible candidate as well. He wasn't even in Alabama the weekend before the election.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And thus, my point is proven.

You honestly believe that this is a productive form of political discourse to shout pedophile loud enough and long enough. That is a problem.

What you and many others here are showing that you aren't amenable to reason in any way shape or form. I was surprised to find the blasts of hate towards Moore, but perhaps I shouldn't be given what his values are and how they differ from yours and from many on the forum.

You want a culture war? I guess you figure that you've won. We'll see how that goes.

I don't think many on the left want a culture war (although some certainly do), but we have no choice in the matter. The Republicans started one when they made "you're infringing on my freedom to oppress you" a rallying cry, and then doubled down with "President" Deplorable.

This is a victory. But it is only one skirmish in what will doubtless be a long and nasty war. I truly hope it doesn't get (more) violent. But with a Republican President and Party who openly advocate for bigotry, sexual assault, war crimes, riots, persecution and murder of his political opponents, and yes, pedophila, I fear some level of violence is inevitable. If for no other reason than to defend our nation and its values from the incoherent rage of the deplorables when the march of time guts their demographics and they end up washed into the political sewer where they belong.

If you think the problem with the Alabama race was people shouting pedophilia, you also probably think the problem with arson is the person pulling the fire alarm. Here's a pro political tip: if the GOP would stop promoting oppression and abuse as core parts of its political platform, maybe it wouldn't attract so many scumbags.

[Sestak]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

[Seattle]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

[Sir Mohamed]

I am deeply relieved even AL has rejected the pedophile dude and with him the orange clown. This gives me hope, that 2018 can be a wave. Democrats should now just not get ahead of themselves. We must fight everyday by setting the right topics and selecting the right candidates.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

No. Trump and the RNC still went all in on a pedophile, and Jones winning doesn't change that. Sure, it staves off embarrassing tirades by Moore from the Senate floor, but no one in another state ever changed their vote because Louie Gohmert said some nutty thing, so why would they for Roy Moore if he had won?

If anything, Jones winning should embolden Democrats in theoretically more winnable races like Texas and Tennessee, if the turnout differentials are any indication at all. Jones got at least 5 points more than Clinton in every county, and in Texas, where Clinton got 43% of the vote, O'Rourke getting 5% more than Clinton in every county would make that race a tossup. Similar thing also coincidentally happened in virginia where Northam got 4% more than Clinton.

As for your signature, I agree that Cruz and Blackburn can certainly lose... if they're outed as pedophiles.

[Sir Mohamed]

So, Roy Moore is still refusing to concede?

As far as I know, most states only allow a recount if the election is within a half percentage point, what is not the case here.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

No. Trump and the RNC still went all in on a pedophile, and Jones winning doesn't change that. Sure, it staves off embarrassing tirades by Moore from the Senate floor, but no one in another state ever changed their vote because Louie Gohmert said some nutty thing, so why would they for Roy Moore if he had won?

If anything, Jones winning should embolden Democrats in theoretically more winnable races like Texas and Tennessee, if the turnout differentials are any indication at all. Jones got at least 5 points more than Clinton in every county, and in Texas, where Clinton got 43% of the vote, O'Rourke getting 5% more than Clinton in every county would make that race a tossup. Similar thing also coincidentally happened in virginia where Northam got 4% more than Clinton.

As for your signature, I agree that Cruz and Blackburn can certainly lose... if they're outed as pedophiles.

Turnout differentials in Texas.

And in TN, Bredesen is arguably of stronger candidate quality than Jones. And Blackburn isn't exactly one that's gonna win over many disaffected Trump 2016 voters.

To be sure though, I still would rate them both as lean/likely R.

Texas is possible in a perfect storm scenario, because Cruz is extremely unpopular with almost everyone, but Tennessee is a different story. I don't think Bredesen wins unless Blackburn has a major scandal or says something really, really stupid (even by her standards).

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

I'm sure Birmingham proper was overrepresented in tonight's result. Not to mention the hugely popular new and young mayor of Birmingham working hard to get people out for Jones. The numbers were amazing. I can't wait until another generation passes and the South becomes the new battleground.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

No. Trump and the RNC still went all in on a pedophile, and Jones winning doesn't change that. Sure, it staves off embarrassing tirades by Moore from the Senate floor, but no one in another state ever changed their vote because Louie Gohmert said some nutty thing, so why would they for Roy Moore if he had won?

If anything, Jones winning should embolden Democrats in theoretically more winnable races like Texas and Tennessee, if the turnout differentials are any indication at all. Jones got at least 5 points more than Clinton in every county, and in Texas, where Clinton got 43% of the vote, O'Rourke getting 5% more than Clinton in every county would make that race a tossup. Similar thing also coincidentally happened in virginia where Northam got 4% more than Clinton.

As for your signature, I agree that Cruz and Blackburn can certainly lose... if they're outed as pedophiles.

Turnout differentials in Texas.

And in TN, Bredesen is arguably of stronger candidate quality than Jones. And Blackburn isn't exactly one that's gonna win over many disaffected Trump 2016 voters.

To be sure though, I still would rate them both as lean/likely R.

Texas is possible in a perfect storm scenario, because Cruz is extremely unpopular with almost everyone, but Tennessee is a different story. I don't think Bredesen wins unless Blackburn has a major scandal or says something really, really stupid (even by her standards).

And I am guessing Bredesen knows something we don't on that front. He's not a fool on a suicide mission, after all.😉

Either that or he's like most people who seek political office - a huge narcissist who will do anything to attain status.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

I'm sure Birmingham proper was overrepresented in tonight's result. Not to mention the hugely popular new and young mayor of Birmingham working hard to get people out for Jones. The numbers were amazing. I can't wait until another generation passes and the South becomes the new battleground.

I'm personally hoping that the entire South eventually becomes solidly Democratic, but just because that would look aesthetically pleasing on a map.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, Roy Moore is still refusing to concede?

As far as I know, most states only allow a recount if the election is within a half percentage point, what is not the case here.

So, Roy Moore is still refusing to concede?

As far as I know, most states only allow a recount if the election is within a half percentage point, what is not the case here.

It appears he can pay for a recount regardless of the margin. If it was within 0.5% the state would pay for it.

[Anna Komnene]

I'm still astonished that Jefferson county went 68-30 for Jones... after only voting for Clinton by 7.

Jones really over-performed there.

I'm sure Birmingham proper was overrepresented in tonight's result. Not to mention the hugely popular new and young mayor of Birmingham working hard to get people out for Jones. The numbers were amazing. I can't wait until another generation passes and the South becomes the new battleground.

I gotta think Jones' win will be a big inspiration to Dems all over the South and maybe the midwest. They might still lose most of the time, but now there's that example to look to that it can actually happen. And that means a lot to have that inspiration.

[Badger]

Erick Erickson, Guy Benson, Stephen Miller and their crew on Twitter are trying to spin this as a Republican win because (paraphrasing): "Jones will only serve one term in a deadlocked Congress. Republicans dodged a bullet." It amazes me than anyone can think of this as anything other than a win for Democrats and Jones. With Jones in the Senate, Republicans can only risk losing one vote from their caucus, this eases the fight to win back the Senate in 2018 for Democrats, and it emboldens the grassroots and  will inspire more candidates to run all over.

To be fair, they may have dodged a bullet in the long run, because they won't have Moore hanging around their necks. Still a huge victory overall for Democrats, makes things much tougher for congressional GOP policy wise.

Also, you should probably reference which Stephen Miller you're talking about in case anyone gets confused.

No. Trump and the RNC still went all in on a pedophile, and Jones winning doesn't change that. Sure, it staves off embarrassing tirades by Moore from the Senate floor, but no one in another state ever changed their vote because Louie Gohmert said some nutty thing, so why would they for Roy Moore if he had won?

If anything, Jones winning should embolden Democrats in theoretically more winnable races like Texas and Tennessee, if the turnout differentials are any indication at all. Jones got at least 5 points more than Clinton in every county, and in Texas, where Clinton got 43% of the vote, O'Rourke getting 5% more than Clinton in every county would make that race a tossup. Similar thing also coincidentally happened in virginia where Northam got 4% more than Clinton.

As for your signature, I agree that Cruz and Blackburn can certainly lose... if they're outed as pedophiles.

Turnout differentials in Texas.

And in TN, Bredesen is arguably of stronger candidate quality than Jones. And Blackburn isn't exactly one that's gonna win over many disaffected Trump 2016 voters.

To be sure though, I still would rate them both as lean/likely R.

Texas is possible in a perfect storm scenario, because Cruz is extremely unpopular with almost everyone, but Tennessee is a different story. I don't think Bredesen wins unless Blackburn has a major scandal or says something really, really stupid (even by her standards).

I give that about a 60/40 chance of occurring.