Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Can't wait to see who won the write-ins. I have a feeling that Nick Saban will beat Lee Busby.

[NOVA Green]

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

This does make me wonder about what would happen in MS. It's more rural, has a higher % of the Black population, more racially polarized apparently, and also swung towards Trump (mainly due to depressed Black turnout last year).

Good question... the math is certainly much more favorably than Alabama in theory, assuming high voter turnout, and likely we will likely see significant swings among White Suburban Voters in the '20 Pres election in places like Madison, De Soto, and Rankin among other places, assuming Trump is the 'Pres.

Still, although in theory Mississippi Whites in recent years have been voting only slightly more Republican than Alabaman White Voters, you might be on to something with the "Rural", aka Industrialization and Manufacturing sectors compared to Alabama.

Mississippi has one major auto plant in Canton, MS, (Madison County), doesn't have the history of the Shipyards, Defense Plants, Steel Mills, Coal Mines of Alabama...

Is the Democratic Coalition of Alabama transferable to Mississippi?

Absolutely....

Education, Health Care, and decent paying jobs always play well to all of us working-class Americans, and it don't take that many White Votes to flip in MS to put the State in play.

Problem is when so many of us are dealing with working jobs to keep a roof over our head, take care of family members that have nowhere else to go including medical and substance abuse issues, sometimes it gets difficult to find the time to get out and vote on election day, especially in a One-Party State like 'Bama.

Actually, I think it might be a very good time to invest effort into the upcoming 2018 US-SEN election in MS!   

Think there might be some College students and volunteers from Alabama that were part of the stealth Jones Ground War effort from places like Birmingham and Mobile in AL-'17 that would be more than happy to spend some time with their neighbors in MS to make this happen.

Let me know if you need precinct level data from MS, but after what we saw in 'Bama, I won't discount the impact of a mass turnout effort, considering that the only ones who voted for Moore were those 65+....

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a map that shows the extent of the turnout discrepancy and where. Basically, this just shows the percentage-point difference between Democratic and Republican turnout relative to 2016. So statewide, Democrats pulled 92% of their 2016 numbers in this race; GOP 49%. That's a 43-point difference in turnout (92-49) between the two parties relative to 2016.

Both maps show the same thing - the one on the right eliminates numbers and uses starker colors.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a few maps. The first 3 should be self-explanatory. The fourth map uses the benchmarks (margins) for each county that NYT put out yesterday afternoon for a very close race, and then compares the final margins in each county to that. It's worth noting that as a whole/statewide, NYT's benchmarks were quite good - and even held up well in most of the counties.

Green means Moore's margin was less than expected/Jones' was greater than expected.

Red means Moore's margin was greater than expected/Jones' was less than expected.

Some very clear patterns but not inherently tied to any partisan or racial patterns in the state:

I still find the 2012 vs 2017 more interesting because there's a segment of rural low education white voters out there that didn't like Roy Moore's antics enough to vote against him in 2012, but throw in some child molesting and they swing towards Moore in 2017.  Maybe there is some kind of flag they can fly to show their pride in rallying around the diddler. 

[DINGO Joe]

Jones did better in North Alabama than I expected.

Among the yellow dogs along the Tennessee border. Hmmm.

Madison county has the highest rate of Whites with a college degree in the entire state.  There is actually some high tech stuff in Madison via NASA and military spending.  I wouldn't doubt if it actually has the highest % of non-southerners in the state too.  Some of that growth has probably bled out into Limestone and even Florence has a surprisingly high rate of college degree.  Maybe the TVA planted the seed for a higher educated workforce all those years ago.

[DINGO Joe]

Sweet home Alabama, where the skies are so blue

Neil Young wrote a couple of songs in the early 70s, Southern Man and Alabama, that were critical of the racist lynching ways of the South and the second song, obviously, singled out Alabama.

Lynyrd Skynyrd retorted in 1974 with Sweet Home Alabama which included these lyrics:

Well I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well I heard ole Neil put her down
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember
A southern man don't need him around anyhow

In 1980 Warren Zevon wrote a little vignette, Play it All Night Long, that imagined what Southern  country living was really like, as seen through a Southern Man drinking and playing Lynyrd Skynrd loud to try to forget his considerable troubles.  The first part of the lyrics are in my sig below.  Personally, I think Roy could have been Grandpa, Billy and Daddy in the song.

[Hydera]

Here's a few maps. The first 3 should be self-explanatory. The fourth map uses the benchmarks (margins) for each county that NYT put out yesterday afternoon for a very close race, and then compares the final margins in each county to that. It's worth noting that as a whole/statewide, NYT's benchmarks were quite good - and even held up well in most of the counties.

Green means Moore's margin was less than expected/Jones' was greater than expected.

Red means Moore's margin was greater than expected/Jones' was less than expected.

Some very clear patterns but not inherently tied to any partisan or racial patterns in the state:

I still find the 2012 vs 2017 more interesting because there's a segment of rural low education white voters out there that didn't like Roy Moore's antics enough to vote against him in 2012, but throw in some child molesting and they swing towards Moore in 2017.  Maybe there is some kind of flag they can fly to show their pride in rallying around the diddler.  

While the suburbs ignored trump's grab pussy tape and voted for him despite it, child molesting was a step too far.

In contrast in rural areas, that went even more right-wing because of trump doing it so its ok, said meh its fine.

Sweet home Alabama, where the skies are so blue

Neil Young wrote a couple of songs in the early 70s, Southern Man and Alabama, that were critical of the racist lynching ways of the South and the second song, obviously, singled out Alabama.

Lynyrd Skynyrd retorted in 1974 with Sweet Home Alabama which included these lyrics:

Well I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well I heard ole Neil put her down
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember
A southern man don't need him around anyhow

In 1980 Warren Zevon wrote a little vignette, Play it All Night Long, that imagined what Southern  country living was really like, as seen through a Southern Man drinking and playing Lynyrd Skynrd loud to try to forget his considerable troubles.  The first part of the lyrics are in my sig below.  Personally, I think Roy could have been Grandpa, Billy and Daddy in the song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHdXQAQHjd8

shout out to this song. i was embarrassingly singing to this an hour after doug jones won. it really is reminiscent of the working class roots of the state as well as having themes regarding  FDR and the old democrats. (Ignoring the racial attitudes)

[DINGO Joe]

While the suburbs ignored trump's grab pussy tape and voted for him despite it, child molesting was a step too far.

In contrast in rural areas, that went even more right-wing because of trump doing it so its ok, said meh its fine.

I'm sure it has more to do with their descent into Trumptardism than actual support for pedophilia, but inks them and the horse they rode in on.

[Boston Bread]

Another factor in Moore doing better with rural whites is that 2017 was an election for a federal office while 2012 for for a state office. For a federal election polarization is closer to national lines rather than traditional lines of polarization.

[NOVA Green]

Another factor in Moore doing better with rural whites is that 2017 was an election for a federal office while 2012 for for a state office. For a federal election polarization is closer to national lines rather than traditional lines of polarization.

Honestly I think is likely the more accurate assessment for the relative shift in certain counties of the State between '12 and '17.

There is absolutely little doubt in my mind if it were the same two candidates and circumstances Doug Jones would like have been elected Governor of Alabama in a relative Democratic (By Alabama standards) landslide.

This obviously indicates the importance of building a full slate of Candidates in Alabama (And elsewhere), even in extremely challenging regions for all Federal elections, Statewide elections, and even many state House and Senate districts.

You never know when a candidate that looks like a shoe-in is just one step away from potentially losing because of some various type of scandal.

So one the things most impressive about Jones victory, was that he did it in the absence of any significant statewide Party infrastructure outside of some the largest Cities and Counties, a few University towns, and of course in the "Black Belt" region which is heavily Democratic to start with, even in rural areas.

If you don't have at least some type of local party infrastructure in most parts of the State, it makes it extremely difficult to mobilize human capitol, (Campaign volunteers) to make up the difference especially when you are heavily out-funded by your opponent, even in a favorable political opportunity structure.

[NOVA Green]

Here's a map that shows the extent of the turnout discrepancy and where. Basically, this just shows the percentage-point difference between Democratic and Republican turnout relative to 2016. So statewide, Democrats pulled 92% of their 2016 numbers in this race; GOP 49%. That's a 43-point difference in turnout (92-49) between the two parties relative to 2016.

Both maps show the same thing - the one on the right eliminates numbers and uses starker colors.

Thanks Fmr Pres Grif!

I always enjoy your insightful posts and maps, especially regarding politics in Southern States, even though I frequently don't comment.

This map definitely shows the "Tale of Two Turnouts" at a County level, which so far seems to jive pretty closely with precinct data that I've looked at in three Counties of Alabama thus far (Jefferson, Baldwin, and Calhoun County.

One item which I'm also looking at, which doesn't reflect in County level numbers/maps are were their particular places within Counties where turnout collapsed or surged for candidates relative to previous elections, which of the course part of the reason that I used '16 US PRES as the baseline, both because precinct level result is readily accessible for all Counties in AL for the '16 GE, which can be easily matched against '17 data, and also since it is a Federal Election it's a way of testing both the transferability of the Trump brand to other candidates, as well as potentially areas where support for Trump is weakening.

One other thing that I'm looking at are the "Cross-Over" votes by precinct, since not only are these worth the equivalent of two votes (Double book accounting style), but also this shows where the Republican Coalition is Alabama is losing support, which one can't really ascertain simply by looking at County level results.

[Alabama_Indy10]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/alabama_counties_told_to_tabul.html#incart_river_index

Because of the close results, counties are being told to tabulate write-in votes. One step closer to certification.

[Tintrlvr]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/alabama_counties_told_to_tabul.html#incart_river_index

Because of the close results, counties are being told to tabulate write-in votes. One step closer to certification.

Pure delay tactics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/alabama_counties_told_to_tabul.html#incart_river_index

Because of the close results, counties are being told to tabulate write-in votes. One step closer to certification.

Pure delay tactics.

Not at all.  It's a requirement of the state's election law when the number of write-ins exceeds the leader's margin, which it does in this case (22K vs 20K).  In theory, all the write-ins could be for the second-place candidate, in which case they would change the result.  They would be doing the same thing if Moore rather than Jones had won by 20K votes.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/alabama_counties_told_to_tabul.html#incart_river_index

Because of the close results, counties are being told to tabulate write-in votes. One step closer to certification.

Excellent news! I wonder if Saban will break 1%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/943237485743755264

#ALSen: In Morgan County (Decatur), Luther Strange 215 write-in votes, Mo Brooks 72, Nick Saban 8
(PDF): http://www.morgancountyprobate.com/media/28474/write-ins-us-senate-general-121217.pdf … Write-ins 2.2% of Morgan vote

[Kamala]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/943237485743755264

#ALSen: In Morgan County (Decatur), Luther Strange 215 write-in votes, Mo Brooks 72, Nick Saban 8
(PDF): http://www.morgancountyprobate.com/media/28474/write-ins-us-senate-general-121217.pdf … Write-ins 2.2% of Morgan vote

Lee Busby got 152 votes in this county. Bozo "The Clown" got 2, Bugs Bunny with 1, Jeff Sessions with 3, "a competent conservative" with 1.

Apparently, Kingpoleon lives in this county, because Condi Rice got a vote.

[The Other Castro]

Disappointing result for Saban, pretty good for Busby.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/943237485743755264

#ALSen: In Morgan County (Decatur), Luther Strange 215 write-in votes, Mo Brooks 72, Nick Saban 8
(PDF): http://www.morgancountyprobate.com/media/28474/write-ins-us-senate-general-121217.pdf … Write-ins 2.2% of Morgan vote

Lee Busby got 152 votes in this county. Bozo "The Clown" got 2, Bugs Bunny with 1, Jeff Sessions with 3, "a competent conservative" with 1.

Apparently, Kingpoleon lives in this county, because Condi Rice got a vote.

So, will votes for Bozo go towards Roy Moore's total?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

[IceSpear]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

But is he a stronger candidate than Generic Republican?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

But is he a stronger candidate than Generic Republican?

Yeah, there are some rumors about Generic Republicans' shady past, I won't post them here because they're extremely salacious, but even if these aren't proven, I think Competent Conservative is the stronger candidate here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Blank" got 9 votes (does this mean 9 people wrote in the word, or that 9 people left a blank ballot)
"a competent conservative: got 1 vote
"Neither" got 1 vote
Ronald Reagan got 1 vote
Bugs Bunny got 1 vote
Buddy the Elf got 1 vote
Red Squirrel got 1 vote
"Overvote" got 1 vote (does this mean someone wrote in the word, or that it is an actual overvote)

This Competent Conservative fellow sounds interesting.

But is he a stronger candidate than Generic Republican?

Yeah, there are some rumors about Generic Republicans' shady past, I won't post them here because they're extremely salacious, but even if these aren't proven, I think Competent Conservative is the stronger candidate here.

Very likely true, but unfortunately Competent Conservative has retired from politics.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/943237485743755264

#ALSen: In Morgan County (Decatur), Luther Strange 215 write-in votes, Mo Brooks 72, Nick Saban 8
(PDF): http://www.morgancountyprobate.com/media/28474/write-ins-us-senate-general-121217.pdf … Write-ins 2.2% of Morgan vote

Lee Busby got 152 votes in this county. Bozo "The Clown" got 2, Bugs Bunny with 1, Jeff Sessions with 3, "a competent conservative" with 1.

Apparently, Kingpoleon lives in this county, because Condi Rice got a vote.

BTW, Morgan county also posted their official results (including any provisional and late military votes).  Jones added 34 votes while Roy picked up 28 in a county that cast a little over 30,000 votes (and Roy won 62-35).  Again, can't tell if the 28 added to Roy's total included the Bozo votes or not.  Roy may have to go to court to get those votes.