Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope (user search)
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  Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope (search mode)
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Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope  (Read 68431 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: December 13, 2017, 01:34:10 AM »
Awesome.

AL did it like Austria last year and dodged the extremist bullet.

And I'm extremely happy with my Jones+1.4 and turnout prediction.

After military and provisionals, this might be the final margin.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2017, 01:15:29 PM »
A fitting image for last night and this race in general:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2017, 12:38:33 PM »
When is AL going to certify the results ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2017, 12:39:56 PM »

Thx.

I'm curious how many votes will be added to the election night figures. I guess there are some military and provisional ballots that will be added.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2017, 02:00:10 PM »

Meanwhile, it also seems an AL judge has dismissed Moore's challenge.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2017, 02:12:04 PM »

Doesn't matter any longer. The mighty sword of justice has just come down on him.

A concession would only show that he's still *somewhat* human, but ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2017, 02:32:54 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on December 28, 2017, 02:29:30 PM
On election night, Roy Moore claimed that Military absentees would help him to win... they actually expanded Jones' victory margin.

It probably had more to do with there being more provisional ballots (lean very Democratic) and a smaller number of military ballots (lean Republican).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2017, 02:38:10 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on December 28, 2017, 02:34:48 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 28, 2017, 02:32:54 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on December 28, 2017, 02:29:30 PM
On election night, Roy Moore claimed that Military absentees would help him to win... they actually expanded Jones' victory margin.

It probably had more to do with there being more provisional ballots (lean very Democratic) and a smaller number of military ballots (lean Republican).

Maybe, but Moore's supporters cheered at the thought their precious military members would help him bridge a 20,000-vote gap.

Moore and his supporters have no clue when it comes to elections ...

It is mathematically impossible for an off-year Senate election to have enough military ballots to make up a 20.000 vote margin.

I even doubt there are 20.000 people from Alabama in the military who are stationed abroad (and 100% of them would have to vote and 100% of them would also have to vote for Moore).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2017, 01:32:48 AM »
Interesting side-fact:

There were ca. 5.400 ballots left to count after election day (some 400 military absentees and 5.000 provisional ballots).

About 4.400 of them were counted as valid. Jones won them by 63-35-2, which is why his overall winning margin increased a bit.
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