How would you rate TX-Sen?
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  How would you rate TX-Sen?
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Poll
Question: How would you rate TX-Sen?
#1
Lean dem
 
#2
Toss up
 
#3
Lean rep
 
#4
Likely rep
 
#5
Safe rep
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 160

Author Topic: How would you rate TX-Sen?  (Read 9045 times)
windjammer
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« on: December 13, 2017, 07:24:09 AM »

Discuss
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2017, 07:59:39 AM »

Cruz seems like exactly the kind of guy that would have a massive scandal revealed about him.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2017, 10:32:18 AM »

Lean R at the moment. But closer to likely R than to toss-up.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2017, 10:57:22 AM »

Likely R, but:

Cruz seems like exactly the kind of guy that would have a massive scandal revealed about him.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2017, 11:03:37 AM »

Likely R, but:

Cruz seems like exactly the kind of guy that would have a massive scandal revealed about him.

Nah, not really.  He's been in the national spotlight for the better part of 5 years and has endured a presidential campaign, if there was something especially damning about him it would have come out by now.

Doesn't change the fact that 2018 is going to be a strong year for Dems, Beto is a good recruit and Cruz is now out-of-step with his state on a lot of issues.  Likely R, with a downgrade to Lean R very possible in the next couple months.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2017, 11:56:09 AM »

Likely R with a Lean R flavor.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2017, 11:58:43 AM »

Likely R
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2017, 12:01:16 PM »

Likely Cruz.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2017, 12:03:59 PM »

Likely R but worth throwing some money into
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2017, 12:09:35 PM »

Tossup

Lyin Ted only wins when turnout is low

Texas has had it with Calgary Cruz
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2017, 12:12:37 PM »

Cruz's favourables in TX aren't exactly great.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2017, 12:28:25 PM »

Lean R at the moment. But closer to likely R than to toss-up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2017, 01:49:46 PM »

Likely R. Cruz is pretty formidable, isn't a pedophile (probably), and will have the funds to blanket the airwaves in super expensive Texas whereas I'm not sure O'Rourke will.
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Kamala
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« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2017, 02:02:04 PM »

Likely R. Cruz is pretty formidable, isn't a pedophile (probably), and will have the funds to blanket the airwaves in super expensive Texas whereas I'm not sure O'Rourke will.

O'Rourke has $3 million on hand and has outraised Cruz for two straight quarters. I think he'll have enough money to get his message out there if the environment propels this race.

I read somewhere that Greg Abbott (governor) has about $40 million raised. Texas is not only big, but I think all of its media markets are also expensive. So $3 million is a good amount raised, but there's still a while to go.

In 2012, for reference, Cruz raised $9 million while his Democratic opponent raised less than $150k. So O'Rourke's doing better than 2012, but of course, there's still some to go.
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Sestak
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2017, 02:04:14 PM »

Safe -> Likely, I think.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2017, 02:05:43 PM »

Still safe, imo. Last night was a special election. And even though the Dems will have the advantage cruz will be fine
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windjammer
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2017, 02:09:20 PM »

I voted Lean Rep for the record.
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Kamala
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2017, 03:09:26 PM »

Tilt R. What happened in the Richmond, Atlanta, Birmingham, etc. suburbs is likely to repeat itself in Texas. Cruz is definitely more likely to lose than someone like Heitkamp at this point.

Yeah - I think that the enthusiasm boost of college students and other young democrats basically guarantee O'Rourke winning counties like Hays and suburbanites' anger will mean that Fort Bend will vote for O'Rourke and margins in Williamson, Tarrant, Collin, and Bell will be tight, probably even tighter than 2016.
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Figueira
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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2017, 03:19:01 PM »

Likely R. There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of O'Rourke but it's hard to ignore the trends in places like Texas.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2017, 03:19:03 PM »

Tilt R. What happened in the Richmond, Atlanta, Birmingham, etc. suburbs is likely to repeat itself in Texas. Cruz is definitely more likely to lose than someone like Heitkamp at this point.

Agree on your second point. After seeing what happened in Shelby county last night, a lot of suburbs in Texas that swung towards Clinton but didn't vote for her will have some wild swings towards Democrats. And so will the burbs that Clinton did win.
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2017, 03:27:28 PM »

Lean R at the moment. But closer to likely R than to toss-up.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2017, 04:06:09 PM »

Lean R
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #22 on: December 13, 2017, 04:50:39 PM »

Lean R at the moment. But closer to likely R than to toss-up.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: December 13, 2017, 04:55:54 PM »

Safe R until I see several reputable polls showing a close race. Texas is going to have to show me some real evidence that it's in play before I believe it, and one junk poll from Texas Lyceum showing 37% undecided doesn't do it.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #24 on: December 13, 2017, 05:10:05 PM »

SAFE R. Maybe Likely but if it’s likely then it’s closer to safe than lean. Drawing conclusions from NOVA or the Alabama Senate race where the republican was a literal pedophile is a flimsy argument. Dems will focus on Arizona, Nevada, and defense.
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