How would you rate TX-Sen?

[forgotten manatee]

Lyin' Ted at 38/44 approvals!

ALL ABOARD THE O'ROURKE HYPE BOAT

[Holmes]

Borderline between lean and likely R for now, but I'll be perfectly honest and say I've seen O'Rourke speak before and there's something about him that seriously creeps me out. I kind of expect he's going to get caught up in this flurry of sexual harassers getting exposed, at which point it will become safe R. That's just a baseless gut feeling though.

This is a bad post and you should feel bad for clicking the post button.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Tossup

Lyin Ted only wins when turnout is low

Texas has had it with Calgary Cruz

He holds his US passport high
And he throws it in the trash
Calgary Ted!

[junior chįmp]

I've been following O'Rourke on Facebook for the past couple of months. Maybe that means I've drunk the Kool-Aid, but I really think he has a serious shot. He's naturally very charismatic and likable, he's got the same kind of oratorical flourish that Barack Obama has, and his fundraising totals are impressive, especially considering that he's using the Bernie Sanders model. I think this is going to be THE upset 2018. And from there, he's going to inevitably become name dropped as a presidential contender, especially since he fits thematically with the re-emergence of the Democratic party as an electoral force in the Southwest.

Going full on hack and picking "Lean D".

Son....he used to be in a band where the members went on to become Mars Volta:

Beto O'Rourke with Foss - Live El Paso, Texas 1994


Meanwhile, Lyin Ted was creeping out women at Harvard

[junior chįmp]

Tossup

Lyin Ted only wins when turnout is low

Texas has had it with Calgary Cruz

He holds his US passport high
And he throws it in the trash
Calgary Ted!

Lyin Ted didn't even have a US passport until he ran for pres. You guys can have him back

[The Mikado]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Describing Texas' population as overwhelmingly rural is...amazingly misguided. Stunningly so.

The GOP base in Texas isn't rural West Texas or rural East Texas, it's the rich Dallas and Houston suburbs.

[kyc0705]

Cruz seems like exactly the kind of guy that would have a massive scandal revealed about him.

I think many have heard various rumors of some kind or another about him. It's entirely possible that at least one could pan out.

[Skill and Chance]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Describing Texas' population as overwhelmingly rural is...amazingly misguided. Stunningly so.

The GOP base in Texas isn't rural West Texas or rural East Texas, it's the rich Dallas and Houston suburbs.

As of 2010, 84.7% of Texans live in a place defined by the Census Bureau as urban or suburban and only 15.3% in rural areas. I imagine that gap has only gotten bigger in the seven years since.

The path to a Democratic Senate win in Texas is replicating the suburban swings we've been seeing and cranking up Democratic turnout in the major cities to 2016 Presidential levels.

Yes, I really think it will be one of these 2 scenarios at the end of the day:

1. Cruz maintains Romney's margins in the suburbs, loses only modest ground in the cities themselves and wins by 10-15.

2.  O'Rourke continues the 2016 trends even further, flips Tarrant, wins the narrow Clinton suburban districts TX-07 and TX-32 by 10-15% and barely flips TX-21 and/or TX-02 to create a < 3% race either way statewide.  This would be the Dem wave equivalent of Warner vs. Gillespie 2014, maybe even Gardner vs. Udall if O'Rourke can thread the needle.

So I would rate it Lean R right now, but I really think it will be either Safe R or a Tossup by next November.

[Angrie]

As of 2010, 84.7% of Texans live in a place defined by the Census Bureau as urban or suburban and only 15.3% in rural areas. I imagine that gap has only gotten bigger in the seven years since.

It is true that Texas can no longer be considered to be a "rural" state, but the Census Bureau's categorizations of urban/rural do not provide any substantive evidence of that.

For example, according to the 2010 Census, 2919 out of the 3367 people in Reagan County, Texas, are categorized as "Urban." That is 86.7% urban, so it is even more "urban" than the state average figure you quote.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_SF1_P2&prodType=table

Here is a satelite picture of the "rban" metropolis of Big Lake that you can find in Reagan County, Texas:



Surely this "urban" area in West Texas is ground zero for the great 2018 anti-trump Urban/Suburban revolt?

[Skunk]

Likely R.

[IceSpear]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Describing Texas' population as overwhelmingly rural is...amazingly misguided. Stunningly so.

The GOP base in Texas isn't rural West Texas or rural East Texas, it's the rich Dallas and Houston suburbs.

As of 2010, 84.7% of Texans live in a place defined by the Census Bureau as urban or suburban and only 15.3% in rural areas. I imagine that gap has only gotten bigger in the seven years since.

The path to a Democratic Senate win in Texas is replicating the suburban swings we've been seeing and cranking up Democratic turnout in the major cities to 2016 Presidential levels.

Yes, I really think it will be one of these 2 scenarios at the end of the day:

1. Cruz maintains Romney's margins in the suburbs, loses only modest ground in the cities themselves and wins by 10-15.

2.  O'Rourke continues the 2016 trends even further, flips Tarrant, wins the narrow Clinton suburban districts TX-07 and TX-32 by 10-15% and barely flips TX-21 and/or TX-02 to create a < 3% race either way statewide.  This would be the Dem wave equivalent of Warner vs. Gillespie 2014, maybe even Gardner vs. Udall if O'Rourke can thread the needle.

So I would rate it Lean R right now, but I really think it will be either Safe R or a Tossup by next November.

Cruz won by 15 in 2012 against a some dude. So him matching that performance is nearly inconceivable, short of O'Rourke being a pedophile.

[Kamala]

For reference, Some Dude in 2012 raised a grand total of 139k. In Texas.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If the GOP is going to lose the Senate anyways, then I’d like to see Cruz go down.

Most of you folks should like him to win to screw up GOP PRESIDENTIAL politics for years. But I guess you need to be careful, as you might run someone as bad as Hillary against him at the time the pendulum is swinging right.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If the GOP is going to lose the Senate anyways, then I’d like to see Cruz go down.

Most of you folks should like him to win to screw up GOP PRESIDENTIAL politics for years. But I guess you need to be careful, as you might run someone as bad as Hillary against him at the time the pendulum is swinging right.

Actually no. That's not why I want to see him lose. Democrats would love to face him in a presidential contest, actually. I want to see him lose just because he is one of the biggest turds in politics.

Also, Cruz would have lost to Hillary *ducks*

[Arkansas Yankee]

If the GOP is going to lose the Senate anyways, then I’d like to see Cruz go down.

Most of you folks should like him to win to screw up GOP PRESIDENTIAL politics for years. But I guess you need to be careful, as you might run someone as bad as Hillary against him at the time the pendulum is swinging right.

b
Actually no. That's not why I want to see him lose. Democrats would love to face him in a presidential contest, actually. I want to see him lose just because he is one of the biggest turds in politics.

Did you not see my first sentence.  He is the most obnoxious member of the Senate.  Gillibrand is beginning to compete imo.

I did not make it clear. I do not think Cruz would win the nomination.  But I must must be careful stating that. He might get it and the Democrats pick someone like Hillary.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Less than 10% of Texas voters live in rural areas. Most people live in the metrapolitan area in the east (contains cities like Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin. I believe 3/10 of americas most populated cities in Texas. You clearly have no understanding of Texas if you think it's mostly white and rural when it is the complete opposite.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Cruz is beyond safe, Democrats are never wining Texas anytime soon because the states black and Hispanic communities never show up to vote and the states white population is overwhelmingly evangelical, rural, and conservative.

Describing Texas' population as overwhelmingly rural is...amazingly misguided. Stunningly so.

The GOP base in Texas isn't rural West Texas or rural East Texas, it's the rich Dallas and Houston suburbs.

As of 2010, 84.7% of Texans live in a place defined by the Census Bureau as urban or suburban and only 15.3% in rural areas. I imagine that gap has only gotten bigger in the seven years since.

The path to a Democratic Senate win in Texas is replicating the suburban swings we've been seeing and cranking up Democratic turnout in the major cities to 2016 Presidential levels.

Yes, I really think it will be one of these 2 scenarios at the end of the day:

1. Cruz maintains Romney's margins in the suburbs, loses only modest ground in the cities themselves and wins by 10-15.

2.  O'Rourke continues the 2016 trends even further, flips Tarrant, wins the narrow Clinton suburban districts TX-07 and TX-32 by 10-15% and barely flips TX-21 and/or TX-02 to create a < 3% race either way statewide.  This would be the Dem wave equivalent of Warner vs. Gillespie 2014, maybe even Gardner vs. Udall if O'Rourke can thread the needle.

So I would rate it Lean R right now, but I really think it will be either Safe R or a Tossup by next November.

O'Rourke winning TX-32 by 10 points might not be as hard as people think. It was Cruz's weakest district in the primary, it almost went for Rubio. So these "suburban" voters not only dislike trump, but they are not impressed with the evangelical right either.

[Brittain33]

Likely R. It's not Safe R because Cruz has a viable opponent and it's a midterm with an unpopular incumbent who won Texas by "only" 9 points. But I'd need to see some pretty dramatic poll results to move this off Likely R to Lean R, and O'Rourke winning would be a major, incredible upset given that Texas Republicans don't seem to have seen Cruz's personality as a firing offense in the past.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Likely R, with the caveat that I need to see more polls to get a better sense of where the race stands.

[The Mikado]

I think Cruz is in for the race of his life, but he should still win by 4-6 points at the end of the day. Certainly not a result a TX Republican should be THRILLED about, but...

[King Lear]

Safe R, Democrats have a solid 45% cealing in Texas due to its massive racial polarization (The only states more Racially polarized then Texas are AL, MS, LA, GA, and SC) with Whites voting 70-80% Republican, Blacks voting 90% Democrat, and Hispanics voting 60-70% Democrat, these numbers make Democratic victory in Texas impossible (unless Cruz is discovered to be a pedophile).

[The Mikado]

Safe R, Democrats have a solid 45% cealing in Texas due to its massive racial polarization (The only states more Racially polarized then Texas are AL, MS, LA, GA, and SC) with Whites voting 70-80% Republican, Blacks voting 90% Democrat, and Hispanics voting 60-70% Democrat, these numbers make Democratic victory in Texas impossible (unless Cruz is discovered to be a pedophile).

It's an extremely polarized state, yes, which means that which groups turn out is more important than ever. Cruz's biggest danger would be unusually low/demoralized Republican turnout coupled with highly motivated Democratic turnout (especially among traditionally-unmotivated Hispanic voters). But the thing is, BOTH of those things need to happen to put him in trouble.

EDIT: Also, TX whites are nowhere near 80% Republican. 70% is more reasonable.

CNN had 2016 among TX Whites as 69 Trump, 26 Clinton, 5 Other, and that is pretty consistent with what you'd expect given the election results.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Safe R. Come on. Cruz is not Roy Moore.

[Cactus Jack]

Safe R. Come on. Cruz is not Roy Moore.

But he is a sleazeball, and Texas isn't Alabama. As I've already pointed out, Russ Feingold lost comfortably in a Wisconsin that was almost as Obama-friendly as Texas is Trump-friendly.

[Former Kentuckian]

Would O'Rourke do better with Lupe Valdez or Andrew White as the Democratic nominee for Governor?