Democrat wave election?

[jman123]

Do you think that Democrats will overcome GOP gerrymandering and win big next year?

[UncleSam]

I think they'll win moderately-large, like a reverse 2014. Voted yes for the poll.

[Pyro]

[Illiniwek]

I like Nate Silver's odds.

1/3: Republicans keep the status quo
1/3: Modest Democratic gains
1/3: WAVE

[progressive85]

Tidalwave!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yes, Doug Jones' and Northam's wins were the beginning signs and I think the FCC just solidified it.

[Pericles]

There will certainly be a big swing and win in the popular vote and gains in the House however given the bad map Democrats face I'm not sure if they'll gain the House or Senate. However I'd say they have a 70% chance of winning the House and a 30% chance of winning the Senate at this point.

[SingingAnalyst]

Not sure, I think the Dems will be defending 25 Senate seats vs. the GOP's 8, or something like that.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

[Free Bird]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

This. These are the variables to look for.

[mcmikk]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

This. These are the variables to look for.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

1. Trumps in the mid 30's with this economy so it's not factoring people's votes right now also no guarantee the economy is good in November 2018
2. Mueller has 4 indictments already
3/4 based on all the elections this year dems se to be more tribalstic right now in their votes
5. Lol dude their is no compromise on this issue that doesn't either piss off one side or the other
6. What are you smoking?
7. I don't know what your talking about there
8. Backlashes in NY and NJ alone over SALT reductions along with the likely backlash in Cali would yield 10-12 seats
9. The only dems in trouble senate wise are Claire and possibly Nelson.

[Free Bird]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

1. Trumps in the mid 30's with this economy so it's not factoring people's votes right now also no guarantee the economy is good in November 2018
2. Mueller has 4 indictments already
3/4 based on all the elections this year dems se to be more tribalstic right now in their votes
5. Lol dude their is no compromise on this issue that doesn't either piss off one side or the other
6. What are you smoking?
7. I don't know what your talking about there
8. Backlashes in NY and NJ alone over SALT reductions along with the likely backlash in Cali would yield 10-12 seats
9. The only dems in trouble senate wise are Claire and possibly Nelson.

Key: As of today. Lot can change in 11 months. Also you miss Donnelly and Heitkamp.

[Yank2133]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

1. Trumps in the mid 30's with this economy so it's not factoring people's votes right now also no guarantee the economy is good in November 2018
2. Mueller has 4 indictments already
3/4 based on all the elections this year dems se to be more tribalstic right now in their votes
5. Lol dude their is no compromise on this issue that doesn't either piss off one side or the other
6. What are you smoking?
7. I don't know what your talking about there
8. Backlashes in NY and NJ alone over SALT reductions along with the likely backlash in Cali would yield 10-12 seats
9. The only dems in trouble senate wise are Claire and possibly Nelson.

Key: As of today. Lot can change in 11 months. Also you miss Donnelly and Heitkamp.

It can.

But history shows that things get worse for the incumbent party the closer we get to election day.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

1. Trumps in the mid 30's with this economy so it's not factoring people's votes right now also no guarantee the economy is good in November 2018
2. Mueller has 4 indictments already
3/4 based on all the elections this year dems se to be more tribalstic right now in their votes
5. Lol dude their is no compromise on this issue that doesn't either piss off one side or the other
6. What are you smoking?
7. I don't know what your talking about there
8. Backlashes in NY and NJ alone over SALT reductions along with the likely backlash in Cali would yield 10-12 seats
9. The only dems in trouble senate wise are Claire and possibly Nelson.

Key: As of today. Lot can change in 11 months. Also you miss Donnelly and Heitkamp.

If you honest to god think thibfs will get better with this doofus then go ahead also I didn't include them because they aren't in trouble. No one is challenging Heitkamp and the GOP primary in Indiania is a ugly battle between two unlined canidates

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

1. Trumps in the mid 30's with this economy so it's not factoring people's votes right now also no guarantee the economy is good in November 2018
2. Mueller has 4 indictments already
3/4 based on all the elections this year dems se to be more tribalstic right now in their votes
5. Lol dude their is no compromise on this issue that doesn't either piss off one side or the other
6. What are you smoking?
7. I don't know what your talking about there
8. Backlashes in NY and NJ alone over SALT reductions along with the likely backlash in Cali would yield 10-12 seats
9. The only dems in trouble senate wise are Claire and possibly Nelson.

Key: As of today. Lot can change in 11 months. Also you miss Donnelly and Heitkamp.

Heitkamp isn't in trouble. the Senate Democrats who should really be worried, IMO, are Claire McCaskill and Donnelly.

[MarkD]

I say yes, there will be a wave that effects majority control of the House and will lift the number of Democrats in state legislatures, but it will not help them in the Senate. Senate Democrats have more vulnerable seats than Republicans and the odds are to experience a net loss there. But the reason we will see a wave in the House is because it is being forecast by the sheer number of Democrats who are running for the House. On average there are three Democrats trying to take on each Republican.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Jones’ election was truly based on exceptional circumstances.

There are several factors that could in themselves or in conjunction limit Democrat gains

   1. Roaring economy

   2. Mueller finds no here/ here or there/there concerning Trump in the Russian influence investigation

   3. Tribal voting that did not exist in 2006 or 2008 continues

   4. Fly over country Republicans who deserted the GOP by voting for Hillary do not desert there local
       Congressmen.

   5. A reasonable compromise is found on immigration issues.

   6. Negotiations commence with North Korea and or negotiations begin between Israel and the
       Palestinians

   7. Republicans send Trump to Atlanta to eat some salmon.  They do not send him to San Francisco for
       obvious reasons.  This might not happen till 2019.

   8. Limitation on deducting state taxes not sufficient to do damage in outstate New York or New Jersey.

   9. The large numbers of Senate seats the Democrats must defend.

This. These are the variables to look for.

These are a statement of variables that could help Republicans.  The opposites of each would favor the Democrat wave.  I am sure there are others.

For instance Trump’s tweeting drives many people of all descriptions crazy.  That could hurt Republicans down the ticket.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Let me make it clear that if the election were today there would be a fairly large wave. They would take both houses.

But it is not today.

[ursulahx]

Holding off on this one for now, because it depends on how you define "big" and "wave". Initial signs are encouraging, but there are too many variables which could push back against it for the time being.

[Gustaf]

Forum discourse on this would really be helped by a standardization of terms - I think Democrats are likely to win the national popular vote by a big enough margin to qualify as a "wave". Whether that wave will translate into big seat gains is another question due to all the factors we all know about.

I suspect the dynamics of these things will lead to Democrats capturing the House but that's more a hunch than anything else.

[here2view]

I think Democrats will gain about 15 to 25 seats to either make things really interest in the House with the Freedom Caucus or they will barely take it all together.

[Orser67]

For the purposes of this election, I would say a wave would constitute:
a)Democrats breaking even in the Senate
b)Democrats picking up >20 seats in the House (either taking control or narrowly missing a majority)
c)Democrats picking up >5 seats in the gubernatorial elections

By this definition, I would say that there's a 50% chance of a Democratic wave, a 10% chance of a 50/50 election (which might see Democrats losing several Senate seats due to incumbents in red states), and a 40% chance of something in between. That 10% chance of a 50/50 election comes largely from unpredictable factors, much in the way that 9/11 indirectly affected the 2002 mid-terms by boosting Bush's approval ratings.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Interesting no one caught my salmon reference.  Please understand I do not advocate it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats are probably taking both the House and the Senate.