Could Roy Moore have won in any state?

[henster]

Joe Dorman the guy running against Fallin managed to be 41% of the vote in 2014 and & OK had a Dem elected Governor & AG as recently at 2010. I would actually say OK Dems are better off than AL Dems the state is way less racially polarized than AL just a lot less black voters to work with.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

North Dakota, Idaho, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming (I basically took the Alabama PVI of R+14 and decided to presume that every point of R PVI increase would result in a half a point of the overall vote switching from Jones to Moore, so this means every state with PVI of R+16 and higher results in Moore winning).

[Jeppe]

I think Alabama was the best state for Moore. States like Idaho and Oklahoma have more of an elastic voting population than Alabama, and they would've easily rejected him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

North Dakota, Idaho, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming (I basically took the Alabama PVI of R+14 and decided to presume that every point of R PVI increase would result in a half a point of the overall vote switching from Jones to Moore, so this means every state with PVI of R+16 and higher results in Moore winning).

Write off Utah. Fire-and-brimstone Evangelicals like Moore hate Mormons and and the latter despise religious intolerance, like the one Moore constantly spewed about Muslims.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, I'm not an expert but WV doesn't strike me as the kind of state that likes Moore. They're represented in the senate by Moore Capito and Manchin, after all. In fact, I'd imagine Jones' message of "I'm a great white hunter and let's fix education" would work pretty well in WV.

I'd also lean Oklahoma. If Bushie is any guidance it has the same brand of hypocritical false Christianity that Moore represents and way less black people.

I don't see any way Moore wins WV vs. Jones.  Pre-2012 Democratic primary (and pre-Ice Spear rants, LOL), WV really didn't get lumped in with the likes of AL or MS.  It's a culturally Southern state in many ways, but it's not very evangelical, really didn't have that bad of a civil rights history for a Southern state (to my knowledge) and was perfectly willing to send some very liberal Democrats to Washington, DC.  It's currently being treated like an ex-girlfriend who found a new, absolutely hated boyfriend by red avatars here, but I think Roy Moore would lose by 10+, possibly more.

[mvd10]

Yeah, he could have won Alabama with a better campaign.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

North Dakota, Idaho, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming (I basically took the Alabama PVI of R+14 and decided to presume that every point of R PVI increase would result in a half a point of the overall vote switching from Jones to Moore, so this means every state with PVI of R+16 and higher results in Moore winning).

Moore definitely wouldn't win in North Dakota, West Virginia, Utah, or Wyoming. Idaho and Oklahoma would be close but I still have trouble seeing Moore winning in either state.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Oklahoma comes to mind there is no significant minority population and while Oklahoma and Tulsa county make up 36% of the state population I doubt a Democrat can get a large enough margin to offset the rest of the state. Idaho and Wyoming are other possibilities but they lack the racial polarization and right wing political activism like the SBC that allowed Moore to rise in the first place.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't see any way Moore wins WV vs. Jones.  Pre-2012 Democratic primary (and pre-Ice Spear rants, LOL), WV really didn't get lumped in with the likes of AL or MS.  It's a culturally Southern state in many ways, but it's not very evangelical, really didn't have that bad of a civil rights history for a Southern state (to my knowledge) and was perfectly willing to send some very liberal Democrats to Washington, DC.  It's currently being treated like an ex-girlfriend who found a new, absolutely hated boyfriend by red avatars here, but I think Roy Moore would lose by 10+, possibly more.

The Times They Are a-Changin’. Moore would probably lose, but I don't think it would be the blowout you seem to suggest, especially given the small number of minority voters the Democrats could build on, Trump's endorsement of Moore and his continuing popularity in the state. Also not sure how the state's past is relevant here?

[IceSpear]

I don't see any way Moore wins WV vs. Jones.  Pre-2012 Democratic primary (and pre-Ice Spear rants, LOL), WV really didn't get lumped in with the likes of AL or MS.  It's a culturally Southern state in many ways, but it's not very evangelical, really didn't have that bad of a civil rights history for a Southern state (to my knowledge) and was perfectly willing to send some very liberal Democrats to Washington, DC.  It's currently being treated like an ex-girlfriend who found a new, absolutely hated boyfriend by red avatars here, but I think Roy Moore would lose by 10+, possibly more.

The Times They Are a-Changin’. Moore would probably lose, but I don't think it would be the blowout you seem to suggest, especially given the small number of minority voters the Democrats could build on, Trump's endorsement of Moore and his continuing popularity in the state. Also not sure how the state's past is relevant here?

It's worth noting that the Alabama electorate that turned out gave Trump an evenly split approval rating, so the race pretty much fell along those lines. Of course, that was because a lot of Republicans/right wing independents that couldn't stomach Moore stayed home. But Trump having that low of an approval among the electorate that would show up in WV/OK seems pretty implausible.

[Santander]

RINO Tom still believes that WV voters are just looking for a liberal with the right accent...

[Pericles]

WV is much more prone to ticket splitting so Jones would have wiped Moore out there. Wyoming and Oklahoma may be more Republican but Moore probably is a better fit in Alabama. Wyoming may be possible. Honestly though Moore's pretty pathetic if he can't win as a Republican in Alabama, and against a pro-choice liberal to boot.

[MT Treasurer]

It's worth noting that the Alabama electorate that turned out gave Trump an evenly split approval rating, so the race pretty much fell along those lines. Of course, that was because a lot of Republicans/right wing independents that couldn't stomach Moore stayed home. But Trump having that low of an approval among the electorate that would show up in WV/OK seems pretty implausible.

Yes, I know. And I wasn't saying that Jones couldn't possibly win or that the electorate showing up in a special election wouldn't be more D-friendly, but part of the reason Jones did so well in AL is because urban and suburban Republicans/Republican-leaning voters either defected to Jones or stayed home and Black turnout was through the roof. Such a winning strategy would not be easy to replicate in WV, and Democrats would obviously have to win over more Trump voters there than in AL. Sure, Manchin and Justice won in WV, but I don't think that necessarily proves that Jones would have had an easy path to victory as well, which is what RINO Tom seems to be insinuating. Moore would underperform badly in counties like Jefferson, Berkeley, Monongalia, Kanawha, etc., but I'm not sure if the rural areas would swing enough to the left for Jones to win in a landslide. Gun to my head, Jones wins by 2-3 or something like that, but if the SWVA results are any indication (I know it's a questionable comparison, but still), Democrats will have a hard time making up lost ground in WV.

[Cashew]

Moore would have never won a primary in WV, Wyoming, or Idaho to begin with due to cultural differences. He stands a chance in Oklahoma and Arkansas as they have less minorities than Alabama, but it balances out with more elastic white voters.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don't think Roy Moore would've beaten Doug Jones in any state, even traditionally Republican ones. Jones would've won in every single state, many of them by huge landslides.

[RINO Tom]

RINO Tom still believes that WV voters are just looking for a liberal with the right accent...

Come on, man.  I didn't even insinuate that.  I just insinuated that a Democrat would beat Moore in WV, and given AL could even make that happen, I don't think that's ridiculous.  Manchin probably beats an infinitely better Repub next year.

TN Vol, the past isn't really a good predictor of the future or anything, but it's certainly not irrelevant, IMO.  Moore was an incredibly, uniquely bad Republican, and there are more voters in WV that have recently pulled the trigger for a Democrat than in Alabama.  This isn't some overarching commentary about what I wish to see in a realignment or comment about WV's political figure ... it's simply that I think there's a decent amount of evidence that a Democrat could beat an alleged pedohphile Republican in WV.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If anything, maybe West Virginia. Not a chance Idaho or Wyoming Mormons would vote for him.