2020 Senate Elections

[LeRaposa]

11 Safe Democratic seats: Colorado (Republican held), Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Virginia.

17 Safe Republican seats: Arkansas, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (assuming Collins runs), Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Competitive seats: Alabama (if Jones runs), Georgia, North Carolina, and Montana (If Bullock runs). Due to increasing political polarization and the fact that it is a presidential year, 2020 will see very few competitive Senate races.

I consider competitive to mean that both parties have a real shot at winning. Colorado is not competitive because Cory Gardner will lose. He has no chance at winning reelection in a blue state in a Presidential year.

Iowa and Alaska seem like possible competitive seats, at least under the right conditions. The last two elections in this Alaska Senate seat were very close races, which at the very least goes to show a wave of sorts can flip them. If things keep going the way they are going, I think it's probable that the 2018-2020 period will be like a 2006-2008 redux, although with the Democratic Party probably being somewhat less liked.

Something I also pointed out to someone else was that if Democrats won back the Senate in 2018, and swept competitive races in 2020, they could actually end up holding the Senate through 2022 even if they won back the White House in 2020. The map in '22 isn't that favorable for Republicans, given their performance in the last elections for that class. And if Trump won a 2nd term, Democrats would probably be able to put the prospect of a supermajority on the table.

Collins is safe. She has not had a close race since she first ran for Senate in 1996.

Not having a close race before doesn't mean it will never happen. There are examples of longtime Senate/House incumbents winning easily up until a big wave swept them away, even if only narrowly - Such as Alaska 2008, iirc.

If Mark Begich runs then yeah Alaska would totally have a competitive Senate race but other than that, it's safe. As for Iowa, I'm certain that Trump will win it again in 2020. I think Iowa is moving safely into the Republican corner. Ernst is lucky to be up again in a Presidential year. If it were a midterm year then she would face a real challenge.

Now on the subject Susan Collins, I think she'll be safe in 2020. She won reelection in 2014 by 37 points. If she runs, she'll win.

[TheSaint250]

Concurrent with a Collins retirement. If she runs, Maine becomes safe R.

[Del Tachi]

[YE]

If Mark Begich runs then yeah Alaska would totally have a competitive Senate race but other than that, it's safe. As for Iowa, I'm certain that Trump will win it again in 2020. I think Iowa is moving safely into the Republican corner. Ernst is lucky to be up again in a Presidential year. If it were a midterm year then she would face a real challenge.

Now on the subject Susan Collins, I think she'll be safe in 2020. She won reelection in 2014 by 37 points. If she runs, she'll win.

Trump has a 35% approval rating in Iowa. Why people think it's Safe R is beyond me.

Also Begich isn't the only one who could make AK competitive. Anchorage mayor Ethan Berkowitz could work there.

[MAINEiac4434]

Collins is safe. She has not had a close race since she first ran for Senate in 1996.

Good things people's opinions never ch--

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York,_1998

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_2004

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Utah,_1976

Oh. It's almost as if sometimes longtime, once-popular incumbents can get swept out if they fail to evolve with their states.

[IceSpear]

If that was going to happen, you'd think it would've happened in 2008. Instead she completely demolished a decent Democratic candidate who represented half the state. Dems' only hope of winning the seat is if she retires or loses the primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

And I'm not saying she WILL lose. I'm just saying she will face her toughest election since she lost the Governors race in 1994. Both for the nomination and in the general. She is not a shoe-in by any means.

If that was going to happen, you'd think it would've happened in 2008. Instead she completely demolished a decent Democratic candidate who represented half the state. Dems' only hope of winning the seat is if she retires or loses the primary.

Yeah, but that was before Trump and the tax bill. We didn't really have any reason to hate her.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Click here to see my 2020 predictions

Oh wait...

It is definitely too early to be predicting 2020.

[IceSpear]

And I'm not saying she WILL lose. I'm just saying she will face her toughest election since she lost the Governors race in 1994. Both for the nomination and in the general. She is not a shoe-in by any means.

If that was going to happen, you'd think it would've happened in 2008. Instead she completely demolished a decent Democratic candidate who represented half the state. Dems' only hope of winning the seat is if she retires or loses the primary.

Yeah, but that was before Trump and the tax bill. We didn't really have any reason to hate her.

The Iraq War vote? That was a much bigger issue in 2008 than the tax bill will be in 2020.

[Orser67]

Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, OR, RI
Very Likely D: NM, VA
Likely D: MI, MN, NH
Lean D: CO
Tossup: ME
Lean R: NC
Likely R: AL, AK, GA, IA, MT
Very Likely R: KS, KY, MS, SC, SD, TX
Safe R: ID, LA, NE, OK, TN, WV, WY

A Democratic sweep of all the competitive races (i.e. Likely R or better) in 2018 and 2020 would give the party 60 Senate seats.
49 now
+NV, AZ, TX, TN = 53 in 2019,
+CO, ME, NC, AK, GA, IA, and MT = 60 in 2021.

[InheritTheWind]

Alabama: Toss-Up: It remains to be seen just how Flawless Perfect Doug will vote in the Senate, but he seems to be an excellent campaigner, and there's no guarantee the AL GOP doesn't nominate a total loon again.
Alaska: Lean R: Begich or Berkowitz could make this interesting.
Arkansas: Safe R: lol
Colorado: Likely D: Gardner is waaaaay to the right of his state. It is going to be one hell of an uphill battle for him to survive presidential D turnout.
Delaware: Safe D: Chris Coons went from being the sacrificial lamb of Mike Castle to pretty much having this seat for life.
Georgia: Lean R: Ask me again after 2018.
Idaho: Safe R: I mean, yeah.
Illinois: Safe D: I wonder if Durbin retires?
Iowa: Lean R: I don't really see Ernst losing, especially with the IA Democratic bench in shambles, but if Trump's terrible approval ratings in the state hold she's going to face some sort of competition.
Kansas: Safe R: Bye-bye, Roberts.
Kentucky: Likely R: I'll believe McConnell losing when I see it.
Lousiana: Safe R: Cassidy isn't loony enough to get washed out in a wave, but loony enough to not get (jungle) primaried out.
Maine: Toss-Up: I honestly have no idea what's gonna happen here. Collins has no guarantee at winning a primary, and she's done a good job at pissing off both party bases. Honestly, she might just retire.
Massachusetts: Safe D: It's Massachusetts.
Michigan: Likely D: Given how bad the Michigan GOP has been at coalescing around a candidate against Stabenow for next year, I don't really have high hopes for them here in 2020.
Minnesota: Likely D: Minnesota is still a solidly blue state; regardless of who wins the special election, it's hard to see them sending a Republican to the Senate
Mississippi: Safe R: Will poor Thad Cochran even make it to 2020?
Montana: Likely R: If Bullock runs, this is going straight to toss-up.
Nebraska: Safe R: I could certainly see Sasse facing a tough primary.
New Hampshire: Likely D: Angry NH women re-elect one of their own.
New Jersey: Safe D: There is no end in sight to the NJ GOP's 40+ year losing streak in Senate races.
New Mexico: Safe D: Yeah, not much to say here.
North Carolina: Toss-Up: There are rumors that Tillis will run for Governor, but even if he stays this will be a very competitive race; between Josh Stein, Jeff Jackson, Anthony Foxx, or even a Kay Hagan comeback, the Democrats have some good candidates to chose from.
Oklahoma: Safe R: Inhofe retires to throw snowballs in peace.
Oregon: Safe D: Merkley isn't losing.
Rhode Island: Safe D: I wonder if Reed retires?
South Carolina: Likely R: I mean, I could see Graham losing a primary to a nut job, but the SC Dem bench is nonexistent so...
South Dakota: Safe R: Where's Tim Johnson when you need him?
Tennessee: Safe R: I'm expecting Lamar Alexander to retire, so this is going to be an interesting primary to watch.
Texas: Likely R: Again, ask me again after 2018.
Virginia: Safe D: For the time being, Virginia is gone for the GOP.
West Virginia: Safe R: The West Virginia Democratic party isn't dead, but boy are they reeling. Maybe a Representative Richard Ojeda could make some noise?
Wyoming: Safe R: It's Wyoming.

[Del Tachi]

Definitely retiring:  Cochran (R-MS), Roberts (R-KS),

Likely retiring: Graham (R-SC), Inhofe (R-OK), Risch (R-ID)

Substantial change of retiring:  Collins (R-ME), Alexander (R-TN), Enzi (R-WY), McConnell (R-KY)

Outside possibilities:  Markey (D-MA), Reed (D-RI), Durbin (D-IL), Udall (D-NM)

[LeRaposa]

Definitely retiring:  Cochran (R-MS), Roberts (R-KS),

Likely retiring: Graham (R-SC), Inhofe (R-OK), Risch (R-ID)

Substantial change of retiring:  Collins (R-ME), Alexander (R-TN), Enzi (R-WY), McConnell (R-KY)

Outside possibilities:  Markey (D-MA), Reed (D-RI), Durbin (D-IL), Udall (D-NM)

McConell is going nowhere. He intends to stay on as the Republican leader through...2027. Is that absurd? It sure is.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Definitely retiring:  Cochran (R-MS), Roberts (R-KS),

Likely retiring: Graham (R-SC), Inhofe (R-OK), Risch (R-ID)

Substantial change of retiring:  Collins (R-ME), Alexander (R-TN), Enzi (R-WY), McConnell (R-KY)

Outside possibilities:  Markey (D-MA), Reed (D-RI), Durbin (D-IL), Udall (D-NM)

McConell is going nowhere. He intends to stay on as the Republican leader through...2027. Is that absurd? It sure is.

His days are numbered. The Trumpkins and Democrats both hate him with a passion.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe D: OR, NJ, RI, MA, DE
Likely D: NM, IL (retirement watch), MI, NH
Lean D: VA, CO
Toss-Up: NC, AL
Lean R: AK, MT, IA, GA
Likely R: ME, KY (retirement watch)
Safe R: ID, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, TN, MS, SC, WV

Unpredictable due to unknown incumbent identity: MN

[Xing]

As always, ME is Safe R if Collins runs and wins her primary, Lean D if she retires or loses her primary.

[Pericles]

Democrats gain 4 seats.*
http://www.270towin.com/2014-senate-election/index.php?mapid=JXjkAP
*Collins retires or loses her primary.

[LeRaposa]

I've thought it over and you have all changed my mind on Collins. I agree that if she runs (and I don't think she will) that she will be a big underdog.

[Coldstream]

Alabama: Toss-Up: With an incumbent Senator there’s always a chance, and there’s no guarantee the Republicans won’t nominate Roy Moore again - or hell even someone worse.
Alaska: Tilt R: On the assumption Begich runs and it’s a favourable national environment for Dems.
Colorado: Likely D: Hard to see how Gardner wins especially in a presidential election, be interesting to see who the candidate is - and if it’s a fight between Perlmutter and Salazar (assuming he’s elected AG)  it could be a proxy for the Sanders vs Establishment fight.
Iowa: Lean R: Ernst seems quite popular, although after 6 years with no Dem in the Senate Iowans might want a change. The Iowa Gubernatorial next year will be a good test.
Kentucky: Likely R: I think McConnell retires after they lose control of the Senate next year. Maybe gives an opening to one of the Beshear’s but it seems unlikely it’ll be a non-Republican.
Lousiana: Likely R: Cassidy is another one like Ernst who seems popular, and I don’t think Louisiana will vote Dem in the Presidential Election. Maybe Mitch Landrieu makes it competitive. 
Maine: Toss-Up: If Collins loses to the primary to some tea party loon, or LePage, it becomes Lean D. I still think she’d have the edge if she got through the primary though.
Montana: Likely R: If Bullock runs, this is becomes a toss-up.
New Hampshire: Likely D: I feel like Sununu might run to try and avenge his brother, but then lose.
New Jersey: Safe D: Safe D but it’d be interesting to see what happens re:Booker if he runs for president depending on when he drops out.
North Carolina: Lean R: If Tillis decides to run for government and the national ticket is competitive in North Carolina then perhaps Foxx, Cooper or Hagan have a shot?.
Oklahoma: Safe R: Just mentioning it because I think Scott Pruitt will replace Inhofe.

[Greedo punched first]

TX is not safe R. Likely R if Cornyn wins primary, tossup if Cornyn loses primary or retires.

Safe D: NJ, DE, MA, RI, OR, IL
Likely D: VA, CO, ME (if Collins retires or loses primary)
Lean D: MN, MI, NH
Safe R: ID, WY, NE, SD, OK, AR, MS, TN, KY, WV, KS (if Roberts wins primary)
Likely R: AL, TX (if Cornyn wins primary), ME (if Collins wins primary), LA, SC, KS (if Roberts retires or loses primary)
Tossup: MT, AK, GA, NC, IA, TX (if Cornyn retires or loses primary)

[QAnonKelly]

Alabama: Too early too tell. Jones hasn’t even been sworn in yet.  It’ll be a tough fight in theory but there’s other popular red state Dems that win. We’ll just have to see what he’s like after being sworn in. The GOP could also run another crazy person.
Alaska: Lean R: The State is trending Dem but it’s probably too early to seriously make a play at.
Arkansas: Safe R: Cotton gonna be in this seat for probably 30 more years
Colorado: Safe D: Dude won this seat on a fluke in a GOP wave midterm. He ain’t winning in what will likely end up being a wave Presidental election. He might as well just not run and take a job in the RNC or something
Delaware: Safe D: It’s Deleware
Georgia: Toss Up: Depends on who’s on the presidental ballot but Perdue has attached himself to the RAISE Act. Not too smart for a guy whose state will likely be majority minority by 2020
Idaho: Safe R: It’s Idaho.
Illinois: Safe D: Durbin likely retires and Bustos fills the seat
Iowa: Tilt R : Once again, let’s see who’s on the presidential ballot
Kansas: Safe R: It’s Kansas
Kentucky: Tilt R: I think Turtle retires. Andy Beshear could make it competitive for an open seat
Lousiana: Safe R: LA is gone for Dems for the time being outside JBE
Maine: Toss-Up: Collins likely retires. She won’t coast if she doesn’t bc people are going to blame her if their premiums go up
Massachusetts: Safe D: Markey probably also retires but it's Massachusetts.
Michigan: Likely D: MI voting R in 2016 was a fluke. Peters will be fine in a presidential year
Minnesota: Likely D: I’d put it at safe but let’s see how Smith does and what exactly she chooses to do when the seat is up
Mississippi: Likely R: Cochran is supposedly stepping down in a couple of weeks so let’s see how the special/ primary goes. If a crazy R wins both, a D could have a shot at it
Montana: Tossup: MT could go blue in a presidential wave year and I have a feeling Bullock runs
Nebraska: Safe R: Sasse will also probably be in this seat for the next 30 years
New Hampshire: Likely D: Shaheen will be safe in a presidential year
New Jersey: Safe D: Booker will be fine. Insert Generic D will be fine if he’s on the Pres ticket
New Mexico: Safe D: Solidly a blue state now. Not going R in a presidential year
North Carolina: Toss-Up: For the same reasons as GA
Oklahoma: Safe R: It’s Oklahoma
Oregon: Safe D: It’s Oregon
Rhode Island: Safe D: It’s Rhode Island
South Carolina: Safe R: Long term SC is trending like its other Dixie neighbors but it’s not there yet.
South Dakota: Safe R: Thune is young and in a safe seat. He’ll likely be Majority Leader after this election
Tennessee: Safe R: Unless a crazy person jumps in, this isn’t gonna happen
Texas: Tilt R: Cornyn also likely retires. If Trump is on the ticket, it’ll be a good fight but they’ll probably be able to hold onto this seat for one more cycle.
Virginia: Safe D: VA is officially a blue state on the federal level now.
West Virginia: Tilt R: Capito has played this year all wrong and her approvals ain’t looking so hot. The right person could take her out in the right environment
Wyoming: Safe R: It's Wyoming.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Wild speculation time: Bullock runs in Montana and narrowly wins, Democrats take Gardner's seat but it's closer than the presidential, Democrats take Tillis' seat narrowly, Smith underperforms her 2018 special election because she dosen't have Klobuchar's coat tails, and Collins run for reelection but only wins by 6ish points.