2020 Senate Elections

[LimoLiberal]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020#/media/File:2020_Senate_election_map.png

Here's the map (though we actually don't know which party the Minnesota incumbent is pending the special election next year).

Its not a necessarily great map for Democrats, but they are almost 100% on offense. Only problem spot is Alabama. Minnesota, Virginia, Michigan, and New Hampshire could be competitive, but I doubt Trump wins any of those states and I see no reason why incumbent democrats would lose, save for Mark Warner or Gary Peters touching some kiddies. Maybe Sununu runs in New Hampshire, or Snyder in Michigan. But, bottom line, all incumbent democrats are heavily favored save for Jones.

On the R side, they have a bit of a numbers problem. They don't have a lot of blue-state Rs, but just a lot of extension. Gardner in Colorado is DOA, but Tillis, McConnell, Perdue, and Ernst will all have competitive races. Strongly favored, but still slightly vulnerable include Collins, Capito, and Daines. And there's plenty of moderate to deep R states where a scandal a la pedophilia could make it competitive.

Early prediction for Democrats:
 '18: +Arizona +Nevada -Missouri -Indiana
 '20: +Colorado +North Carolina -Alabama

So a 50-50 split at the end of the decade with probably a Democratic vice president assuming office.

[Bidenworth2020]

is collins running for reelection?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

is collins running for reelection?

she will but she will not be able to easily coast like she has in the past.

[TheSaint250]

is collins running for reelection?

she will but she will not be able to easily coast like she has in the past.

Lol she’s fine

[Holmes]

I wouldn't even definitely say Collins is running for re-election.

[Figueira]

I agree with Maine being a tossup actually. I could easily see Collins either not running, losing the primary, or losing the GE. Probably Tilt R though, since the first two scenarios could still result in a Republican hold.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Pretty static since I have no clue who’s running yet

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This is what I would say as a baseline - ME obviously depends on if Collins retires, which I think she will at this point - tossup if so, Safe R otherwise. MN is Lean D until the picture is more clear regarding the special.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

very early map

90% safe
60% likely
30% lean 
Green Tossup

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

ME is Lean (or even Likely) R if Collins is the nominee.

[TheSaint250]

Collins gonna lose her primary

K

[Bidenworth2020]

This is what I would say as a baseline - ME obviously depends on if Collins retires, which I think she will at this point - tossup if so, Safe R otherwise. MN is Lean D until the picture is more clear regarding the special.

the state went tohilldog, come on

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst, Collins, Gardner and Tillis will go down and Dems will keep AL

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

[TheSaint250]

Collins gonna lose her primary

K

RINO's on Atlas don't want to believe their party is insane but she's literally underwater among Republicans rn

K

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

If Dems are gaining Tennessee and Texas, they are almost certainly not "easily" losing WV and MO to Republicans.

In my opinion, Claire McCaskill faces an uphill battle for re-election in a state that President Trump is still popular in and is already between 3-16 points behind in the polls. I also think that Joe Manchin might switch over to the Republican Party, considering that he voted in favor of most of President Trump’s Congressional agenda. Joe Manchin is also a bit of an odd man out in the Democratic Party, as he is strongly pro-life and pro-gun rights, is opposed to gay marriage, and is conservative on energy policy.

[YE]

Republicans do not say "Medicare for all should be considered", which Manchin has. Also Manchin is on Dem leadership.

[MATTROSE94]

2018: Republicans easily gain Missouri and West Virginia, but lose Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee. The Democrats may also pick up Utah if a “Never Trump” Republican such as Evan McMullin runs as a third-party candidate. As a result, the Democrats end up with around 51 or 52 seats.

2020: Democrats narrowly hold onto Alabama and pick up Montana, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, giving them around 58 or 59 seats.

If Dems are gaining Tennessee and Texas, they are almost certainly not "easily" losing WV and MO to Republicans.

In my opinion, Claire McCaskill faces an uphill battle for re-election in a state that President Trump is still popular in and is already between 3-16 points behind in the polls. I also think that Joe Manchin might switch over to the Republican Party, considering that he voted in favor of most of President Trump’s Congressional agenda. Joe Manchin is also a bit of an odd man out in the Democratic Party, as he is strongly pro-life and pro-gun rights, is opposed to gay marriage, and is conservative on energy policy.

McCaskill has never been more than 6 points behind a named opponent in Josh Hawley, and that was 6 months ago.

Both Josh Hawley and Blaine Luetkemeyer already hit 50% in polls against Claire McCaskill. I know it is a bit early, but Claire McCaskill is definitely the underdog in the 2018 Missouri Senate race.

[Hoosier_Nick]

The 2018 special will definitely impact Minnesota's rating. Also whether or not Collins runs definitely changes it. One thing for this map... I'm not leaving many races safe for Republicans that I think that they have a chance of losing.

[MT Treasurer]

Seems reasonable. May be overestimating Ernst and overestimating Dems in the South outside of NC and GA. Other than that this is my map. I assume Collins won't be the nominee in maine.

Beating Ernst (or any incumbent Senator in IA, for that matter) isn't going to be easy, she's actually more popular than you would expect and will likely outperform Trump. It would really take a big wave to beat her IMO.

If 2020 is a burbstompin', several Southern states could fall, which is why I only rated them Likely R or Tossup. NC, GA and TX are obvious, but Dems could also put MS (with Hood), LA (with JBE) and SC into play.

I was also thinking about rating MT Lean D with Bullock given that the NRSC seems to have given up on winning Tester's race, but I still think Daines could win in a more neutral year, despite all his flaws. That said, even if Bullock declines to run Daines will be vulnerable, particularly if Tester wins big next year like most people expect. So Tossup/Tilt D (with Bullock) and Tossup/Tilt R (without Bullock) would be my rating at this point.

[LeRaposa]

11 Safe Democratic seats: Colorado (Republican held), Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Virginia.

17 Safe Republican seats: Arkansas, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (assuming Collins runs), Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Competitive seats: Alabama (if Jones runs), Georgia, North Carolina, and Montana (If Bullock runs). Due to increasing political polarization and the fact that it is a presidential year, 2020 will see very few competitive Senate races.

I consider competitive to mean that both parties have a real shot at winning. Colorado is not competitive because Cory Gardner will lose. He has no chance at winning reelection in a blue state in a Presidential year.

[MAINEiac4434]

is collins running for reelection?

she will but she will not be able to easily coast like she has in the past.

Lol she’s fine

lol no she isn't.

https://bangordailynews.com/2017/12/08/news/state/faith-leaders-arrested-for-sit-in-at-collins-portland-office-released-from-jail/

http://bangordailynews.com/2017/12/10/news/bangor/protesters-voice-anger-over-tax-bill-outside-susan-collins-bangor-home/

https://bangordailynews.com/2017/12/15/politics/protesters-play-cribbage-on-floor-of-collins-office/

She's done. She may not even run for reelection at this point.

[LeRaposa]

Collins is safe. She has not had a close race since she first ran for Senate in 1996.

[Virginiá]

11 Safe Democratic seats: Colorado (Republican held), Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Virginia.

17 Safe Republican seats: Arkansas, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (assuming Collins runs), Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Competitive seats: Alabama (if Jones runs), Georgia, North Carolina, and Montana (If Bullock runs). Due to increasing political polarization and the fact that it is a presidential year, 2020 will see very few competitive Senate races.

I consider competitive to mean that both parties have a real shot at winning. Colorado is not competitive because Cory Gardner will lose. He has no chance at winning reelection in a blue state in a Presidential year.

Iowa and Alaska seem like possible competitive seats, at least under the right conditions. The last two elections in this Alaska Senate seat were very close races, which at the very least goes to show a wave of sorts can flip them. If things keep going the way they are going, I think it's probable that the 2018-2020 period will be like a 2006-2008 redux, although with the Democratic Party probably being somewhat less liked.

Something I also pointed out to someone else was that if Democrats won back the Senate in 2018, and swept competitive races in 2020, they could actually end up holding the Senate through 2022 even if they won back the White House in 2020. The map in '22 isn't that favorable for Republicans, given their performance in the last elections for that class. And if Trump won a 2nd term, Democrats would probably be able to put the prospect of a supermajority on the table.

Collins is safe. She has not had a close race since she first ran for Senate in 1996.

Not having a close race before doesn't mean it will never happen. There are examples of longtime Senate/House incumbents winning easily up until a big wave swept them away, even if only narrowly - Such as Alaska 2008, iirc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not having a close race before doesn't mean it will never happen. There are examples of longtime Senate/House incumbents winning easily up until a big wave swept them away, even if only narrowly - Such as Alaska 2008, iirc.

Arkansas 2014 is a good example too.