Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican
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  Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #25 on: December 19, 2017, 06:25:35 PM »

If non-Cook votes 60-38 Republican, and Cook votes 65-35 Democratic, that’s about a 5% Republican win. If Cook County turnout is ~7-8% lower than the rest of the state with those same margins, then it would be a high single digits Republican victory.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #26 on: December 20, 2017, 10:11:26 PM »

Yeah these things all come down to whether polarization will linger on or not.  If so, perhaps not.  If not, then you might as well put all the states in a grab bag, considering how wildly the electoral map swung around during the New Deal era.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #27 on: December 21, 2017, 10:11:31 PM »

Yeah these things all come down to whether polarization will linger on or not.  If so, perhaps not.  If not, then you might as well put all the states in a grab bag, considering how wildly the electoral map swung around during the New Deal era.

Even in a polarized environment states shift over time. Like in 1904 when TR won Missouri, which previously had almost always voted with the former Confederacy. You still had polarization in that the North voted Republican, South voted Democratic, but Missouri had become a Midwest state with the growth of St. Louis. Now the state has become more Republican partially because St. Louis has declined significantly. I think the most unrealistic of projections of was those that foresaw the 2004 map existing forever. We have since seen VA and CO become Democratic states.

I do think that regardless of whether or not polarization ebbs, it will decline in terms of the current divisions and at the very least shift to a new set of dividing lines.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2017, 02:57:04 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2017, 02:58:36 PM by RINO Tom »

Slow day at work, so I thought I would mess around with this.  These are what most consider the main "regions" of Illinois:

CHICAGOLAND: 8,488,857
Chicago: 2,704,958
Instate Suburbs: 5,783,899
- Cook Suburbs: 2,498,541
- Collar Counties: 3,285,358

DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS: 4,312,682
Northern Illinois: 1,182,137
Central Illinois: 1,921,129
Southern Illinois: 1,209,416
- Metro East (STL Suburbs): 600,315
- Other Southern Illinois: 609,101

In 2016, Clinton won the state 55.4%-39.4%.  Chicagoland voted like this (counties are in order of size):

Cook: 74.4% DEM, 21.4% GOP
DuPage: 53.9% DEM, 39.8% GOP
Lake: 57.3% DEM, 37.0% GOP
Will: 50.2% DEM, 44.6% GOP
Kane: 51.4% DEM, 42.4% GOP
McHenry: 50.7% GOP, 42.7% DEM
Kendall: 47.5% GOP, 46.0% DEM

As for the rest of the state, Clinton only won the following counties:

NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DeKalb: 47.8% DEM, 44.7% GOP (where Northern Illinois University is)
Rock Island: 51.2% DEM, 42.8% GOP (Illinois side of the Quad Cities ... fairly diverse and poor)

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Peoria: 48.3% DEM, 45.6% GOP (high Black population)
Champaign: 55.7% DEM, 37.3% GOP (where the University of Illinois is)

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
St. Clair: 50.5% DEM, 44.9% GOP (some very blue collar suburbs of St. Louis, including East St. Louis ... most of the nicer ones are north in Madison County)
Jackson: 47.4% DEM, 44.4% GOP (where Southern Illinois University is)

So, bad news for Republicans is that they seem to have mostly maxed out support in Downstate Illinois (though good GOP candidates often flip Peoria), and trends in the suburbs (the most populous region in the state) favor the Democrats right now ... I think a GOP that is competitive in Illinois is a GOP that has a more suburban coalition.  Of course, the GOP's coalition right now is much, much more suburban than the snobs on Atlas would allow the numbers to inform us, but I am talking a GOP that is almost as suburban as it was in the 1980s and 1990s.  There is a small bright spot for the GOP, though (besides the fact that, ya know, Democrats have ruined this state, but I digress); according to the Census, these were literally the only counties in the state that gained population between 2015 and 2016 (how they voted is colored):

Kendall (Chicagoland): +1.42%
Piatt (Central IL): +1.10%
Monroe (Southern IL, Metro East): +.52%
Johnson (Southern IL): +.51%
Will (Chicagoland): +.41%
Kane (Chicagoland): +.38%
Champaign (Central IL): +.33%
Stark (Central IL): +.21%
Jefferson (Southern IL): +.18%
Edwards (Southern IL): +.05%
Boone (Northern IL): +.02%
Cumberland (Central IL): +.01%

It's just one year and a lot of those counties are small, but it can't hurt ... the fastest growing areas in the Chicago area are actually the most Republican.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #29 on: December 27, 2017, 12:48:56 AM »

I never disagreed that the GOP needs to become "more suburban", my main disagreement is that I think the Republicans need to do that by becoming more focused on an economic message that actually benefits most people who live in suburbia, not the fictional cast that elites like to think inhabit them.

The Republican losses among the suburbs are not driven by trade, or frankly even immigration It is the simple fact that Republican no longer have the golden economic key to their economic interest that made them Republicans, regardless of all other issues. Remember these are some of the same white flight suburbs who largely stuck with Goldwater compared to other places. 

The economic interests have shifted and the Republican's purist direction on economics has gone the other direction. Which has in turn, made the purist direction on social issues since the 1990's just that more salient and damaging. To the extent that trade motivates some lower middle class outer suburban or exurban resident to vote Republican, is a good thing relative to say trying to use taxes to leverage the children of tax conscious Reagan voters, who are far more concerned about a mountain of student debt, lack of wage increases, climate change and equality issues.
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JoshPA
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« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2018, 01:50:39 PM »

The only way Illinois is competitive, barring a massive nationwide GOP landslide, is if Cook County rapidly starts losing population.
so massive gang war in chicago then?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2018, 08:23:16 PM »

https://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/downstate-illinois-secession-history/Content?oid=34519694

also I often note that the IL Sen contest in 2016 should be scary for the GOP.  More so than the Presidential contest even if the collar counties were closer for Duckworth v Kirk.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2018, 10:06:37 PM »

Rubio would have made Illinois a single digit Democratic victory. Kasich would've made it seriously competitive.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2018, 11:16:49 PM »

Rubio would have made Illinois a single digit Democratic victory. Kasich would've made it seriously competitive.

In a national landslide of a Republican popular vote victory I do agree the state could flip. But this site seems to think it will become as Republican as Indiana and Missouri.
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dw93
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« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2018, 11:28:26 PM »

Rubio would have made Illinois a single digit Democratic victory. Kasich would've made it seriously competitive.

In a national landslide of a Republican popular vote victory I do agree the state could flip. But this site seems to think it will become as Republican as Indiana and Missouri.

It'll never be as Republican as Indiana or Missouri. Chicago and Cook County in general would keep that from happening. I do think however if the GOP ends up moderating on Social Issues, the Dems are in trouble when it comes to winning anything outside of Cook and if Chicago's population declines enough, Illinois could become a swing state or even lean Republican. Granted, this wouldn't happen until the 2030s or 2040s at the very earliest if it is to happen at all.
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Boss_Rahm
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« Reply #35 on: January 17, 2018, 12:32:29 AM »

Back when Mark Kirk was in the House, he represented a suburban district (my old district, actually). He was a moderate who capitalized on a pro-GOP national environment and the Blagojevich scandals to win narrowly in 2010. But if any Republican could consistently win in Illinois, it was Mark Kirk.

He lost by 15 points in 2016.

So no, I don't see Illinois shifting rightward any time soon.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #36 on: January 17, 2018, 12:35:42 AM »

Not that I believe Illinois is going to be competitive anytime soon, but didn't Kirk kind of implode at the end with some racist remark(s)? There isn't a lot of polling on RCP so I can't really tell.
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Boss_Rahm
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« Reply #37 on: January 17, 2018, 12:41:02 AM »

Not that I believe Illinois is going to be competitive anytime soon, but didn't Kirk kind of implode at the end with some racist remark(s)? There isn't a lot of polling on RCP so I can't really tell.

Yeah, he made disparaging remarks towards Duckworth in a debate. However, I doubt that would account for the entirety of his 15-point loss.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #38 on: January 17, 2018, 08:02:14 AM »

Not that I believe Illinois is going to be competitive anytime soon, but didn't Kirk kind of implode at the end with some racist remark(s)? There isn't a lot of polling on RCP so I can't really tell.

Yeah, he made disparaging remarks towards Duckworth in a debate. However, I doubt that would account for the entirety of his 15-point loss.
He probably would have ended up with an 8-point loss if he would have kept his mouth shut.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #39 on: January 17, 2018, 02:08:55 PM »

Illinois swung D in 2016 despite it being Obama's home state. Only on Atlas would you find people who think it will soon be a Republican state, lol.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #40 on: January 17, 2018, 02:12:55 PM »

Illinois swung D in 2016 despite it being Obama's home state. Only on Atlas would you find people who think it will soon be a Republican state, lol.

Atlas is full of nerds who dream of realignments because they read about them and think they'd be cool to *experience*.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #41 on: January 17, 2018, 02:28:26 PM »

Illinois swung D in 2016 despite it being Obama's home state. Only on Atlas would you find people who think it will soon be a Republican state, lol.

Atlas is full of nerds who dream of realignments because they read about them and think they'd be cool to *experience*.

I don't know if it's entirely about some 'coolness' factor. If the realignment for 2020 played out in any way like the 1980s, there would be no clear consensus that an alignment even took place until at least 2024, as it would be a blowout, and as we all know, blowouts don't happen post-80s. Unless there is a major shift in Congressional power under a Democratic president which results in Democrats not losing Congress in the president's midterm, it may be the case that a consensus on such a realignment is only reached years after the fact.

Also, I think for a lot of Democrats, the dreams of a realignment has more to do with the left finally being able to implement their policy wishlist rather than face years of more obstruction from Republicans. I can't speak for everyone else, but that's how I see it. Sure the elections would be fun to watch, but it's really about actually getting things done.

I would also add that another part of my dream for such a realignment is to put an end to conservative smugness that they are the only people who have a right to govern in America.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #42 on: January 24, 2018, 09:50:43 PM »

Apparently Illinois will remain a quasi swing state down ballot due to incompetent Democrats and presidential voting patterns not extending down the ballot yet in the collar counties.

Once they do it will be a disaster for the GOP there. This could become the nations most Democratic state.

By the way without Cook County:

Trump defeats Clinton 49.6 to 43.3. Trump could not even break 50%.

Kirk defeats Duckworth 49.2 to 45%. lol!!!!

For the special election for Comptroller.. Munger (R) defeated Chicago City Clerk Mendoza 56% to 38%.

Now without Cook County and the collar counties:

Trump defeats Clinton 55 to 37. Similar margin as Missouri and Indiana! Both states Democrats need to hold to  retake the senate next year!

Kirk defeats Duckworth 51.9 to 42.3. Similar to Indiana Senate 2016.

Munger defeats Mendoza 56 to 38. So on this contest it was similar to Illinois without Cook.

This does suggest the state is still a quasi swing state on the state level but if presidential voting patterns extend down the ballot in the collar counties the Republican Party of Illinois is over.

And to many democratic friendly areas down state for it to ever counter in any significant way.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #43 on: January 24, 2018, 11:40:50 PM »

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #44 on: January 25, 2018, 01:38:29 AM »

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 

Before I go into anything else.. I would like to ask:

Um... why would anyone want to move to downstate Illinois? lmao
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #45 on: January 25, 2018, 06:58:04 AM »

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 

Before I go into anything else.. I would like to ask:

Um... why would anyone want to move to downstate Illinois? lmao
I don't know. If North Dakota can be the fastest growing state, anything is possible.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2018, 05:46:57 PM »

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 

Before I go into anything else.. I would like to ask:

Um... why would anyone want to move to downstate Illinois? lmao

There are plenty of nice places to live in Downstate Illinois...?
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Donerail
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« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2018, 03:22:30 PM »

I don't know. If North Dakota can be the fastest growing state, anything is possible.
yeah, lemme know when they strike oil in Peoria
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2018, 03:59:23 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2018, 04:00:58 PM by RINO Tom »

I don't know. If North Dakota can be the fastest growing state, anything is possible.
yeah, lemme know when they strike oil in Peoria

I'm headed to Peoria this weekend, and I'm sure I'll have a great time just as I always do. Smiley

Screw you, haters!
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BlueDogs2020
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« Reply #49 on: January 27, 2018, 01:30:36 PM »

I totally agree with you here! I am a resident of DuPage county myself, and we have taken quite a leftward swing recently. Many people here voted for the Democrat for the first time EVER in 2016, because we used to be a very Republican area. Still, most local offices are held by Republicans, and Rauner is really popular here. That also doesn't mean he will win in 2020, as far as I'm concerned it is a Tossup kind of race.
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