Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican

[Bus Wanker]

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 

Chicagoland has the rest of the state doubled on population right now. There's no chance the rest of the state overtakes Chicagoland in our lifetimes. There's simply nothing to attract enough people to the rest of the state, and there's too many businesses in Chicago for it to bottom out. Even in the last few years we've seen ADM and Caterpillar relocate from downstate to Chicago.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois will become a more inelastic state but probably won't trend much either way. The only area that's really growing is the collar counties, though, which is where a lot of swing voters live. Chicago and downstate are actually losing population, I think.

If you look at how well Mark Kirk and Bruce Rauner did in suburban Cook and the collar counties, it's two pretty remarkable performances with unique circumstances that can't necessarily be repeated. Kirk wouldn't have done as well had it not been for the removal of Rod Blagojevich and the corrupt Dem nominee, Alexi Giannoulias. Rauner wouldn't have done as well here had it not been for the pension crisis, latent suburban mistrust of the Illinois Dems due to the aftermath of Blagojevich's conviction, and Quinn's horrifically terrible campaign. Neither would have done as well had both election years not been the Republican sweeps from sea to shining sea that they were.

If Illinois is to swing much in the long term, though, it probably swings Democratic as the suburbs are clearly getting bluer. It is harder to see Republicans pulling 60% in suburbs like Palatine like Mark Kirk did in 2010.

[RINO Tom]

Illinois will become a more inelastic state but probably won't trend much either way. The only area that's really growing is the collar counties, though, which is where a lot of swing voters live. Chicago and downstate are actually losing population, I think.

If you look at how well Mark Kirk and Bruce Rauner did in suburban Cook and the collar counties, it's two pretty remarkable performances with unique circumstances that can't necessarily be repeated. Kirk wouldn't have done as well had it not been for the removal of Rod Blagojevich and the corrupt Dem nominee, Alexi Giannoulias. Rauner wouldn't have done as well here had it not been for the pension crisis, latent suburban mistrust of the Illinois Dems due to the aftermath of Blagojevich's conviction, and Quinn's horrifically terrible campaign. Neither would have done as well had both election years not been the Republican sweeps from sea to shining sea that they were.

If Illinois is to swing much in the long term, though, it probably swings Democratic as the suburbs are clearly getting bluer. It is harder to see Republicans pulling 60% in suburbs like Palatine like Mark Kirk did in 2010.

As a group/region, this is largely true.  However, the inner Collar Counties have actually lost population recently while multiple counties Downstate (including Champaign and some of the "exurbs" of Peoria) have actually gained.

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

[libertpaulian]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Downstate is staying red. Democrats decided they don't need the white working class anymore, and for Illinois at least, that's true. The Chicago suburbs could go either way, but they won't go nearly republican enough to outvote the city. Any republican well suited to the suburbs will also fail to drive up margins in the downstate and vice-versa.

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Both states will be titanium Democratic in the 2020s!

One thing I worry about now is that Pritzker seems like a walking time bomb and Biss would have such a large financial disadvantage that Rauner could either come close or win. This entire site would proceed to say Illinois will trend solidly GOP in 2020 because Hillary wont have this "home state" advantage. lmao.

[RINO Tom]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Both states will be titanium Democratic in the 2020s!

One thing I worry about now is that Pritzker seems like a walking time bomb and Biss would have such a large financial disadvantage that Rauner could either come close or win. This entire site would proceed to say Illinois will trend solidly GOP in 2020 because Hillary wont have this "home state" advantage. lmao.

Get a new hobby, dude.  It's weird.

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Both states will be titanium Democratic in the 2020s!

One thing I worry about now is that Pritzker seems like a walking time bomb and Biss would have such a large financial disadvantage that Rauner could either come close or win. This entire site would proceed to say Illinois will trend solidly GOP in 2020 because Hillary wont have this "home state" advantage. lmao.

Get a new hobby, dude.  It's weird.

No it is not weird. I am very concerned about Midwestern Democrats and find it appalling how some many Midwesterner's have been brainwashed to think NAFTA is the cause of their dire circumstances. NAFTA, if anything, did good for us!

You guys here are the ones who are to obsessive about little stuff. I am not obsessive.

[Virginiá]

No it is not weird. I am very concerned about Midwestern Democrats and find it appalling how some many Midwesterner's have been brainwashed to think NAFTA is the cause of their dire circumstances. NAFTA, if anything, did good for us!

You guys here are the ones who are to obsessive about little stuff. I am not obsessive.

Jimmie you know I love you, but that's just not true

[MT Treasurer]

He’s right, though. There is no indication that IL and NH are going to become solid Republican states soon.

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Why is this so important to you? You seem to obsessed with this. Is it really that difficult to accept that not everyone believes NH is this libertarian, competitive, swingy paradise this forum makes it out to be?

[libertpaulian]

He’s right, though. There is no indication that IL and NH are going to become solid Republican states soon.

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Why is this so important to you? You seem to obsessed with this. Is it really that difficult to accept that not everyone believes NH is this libertarian, competitive, swingy paradise this forum makes it out to be?

I'M obsessed?!?!?!!?!?!?!  You're the one who goes onto every NH thread or starts a thread peddling the theory!  Every time a strong Democrat jumps into a statewide or Congressional NH race, you comment "Good!  It's time the liberals take over that awful state!" 

NH has been trending Republican since Obama's strong victory in 2008 and hasn't stopped.  Republicans have the state trifecta.  Republicans have every statewide office except for one.

NH's statewide offices and trifecta went from solidly Democratic in 2006/2008 to a Republican wipeout in 2010 to a Democratic resurgence in 2012 to Republican gains in 2014 to a total Republican takeover in 2016.  If that's not a series of wild swings in the matter of one decade, I don't know what is.

[jamestroll]

Hey guys! Look how Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb in the rust belt in this regards.

[RINO Tom]

Hey guys! Look how Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb in the rust belt in this regards.

And?  White men WITH college degrees are very Republican, too...

[jamestroll]

That is  to show Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb. In the Midwest. Anyway I will not argue about this topic anymore. This form seems so obsessed with Illinois and New Hampshire become in Republican states. And also we have too many threads about the Missouri Senate race.

[jamestroll]

That is  to show Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb. In the Midwest. Anyway I will not argue about this topic anymore. This form seems so obsessed with Illinois and New Hampshire become in Republican states. And also we have too many threads about the Missouri Senate race.

Agreed. It is Safe R.

Nope it is still a total toss up and am genuinely unsure who will win it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Illinois will be solid Democratic, as long as California stays Democratic. Illinois just passed Equal Rights Law,  so that SSM can have more rights. Just like California

[mvd10]

If wealthy and educated people trend D because of Republican anti-intellectualism, minorities trend D because of Republican racism, poor people trend D because of government programs, middle-class people trend D because <insert reasons>, urban areas trend D, suburbs trend D because they loathe deplorables, rural areas trend D because 'they vote for their interests', young people trend D because of guns and the WWC trends D because of medicare and social security (all of these points seem to be #AtlasConsensus), some of these groups are going to trend R solely by the virtue of not shifting D enough .

[Yellowhammer]

If wealthy and educated people trend D because of Republican anti-intellectualism, minorities trend D because of Republican racism, poor people trend D because of government programs, middle-class people trend D because <insert reasons>, urban areas trend D, suburbs trend D because they loathe deplorables, rural areas trend D because 'they vote for their interests', young people trend D because of guns and the WWC trends D because of medicare and social security (all of these points seem to be #AtlasConsensus), some of these groups are going to trend R solely by the virtue of not shifting D enough .

Don't forget farmers trending D because of muh tariffs, lol.

[Skill and Chance]

Hey guys! Look how Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb in the rust belt in this regards.

And?  White men WITH college degrees are very Republican, too...

Republican leaning, yes, but clearly not in the Republican base anymore, outside of specific industries and religious views.