2016: Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) vs. Pres. Mitt Romney (R)

[Lord Admirale]

Discuss with maps

[Kingpoleon]

What has Romney done? Any of these?:
- Healthy Americans Act
- Value-Added Tax
- Military spending
- Welfare spending
- Minimum wage
- Gay marriage*

*I assume Kennedy retired if there was a Democratic Senate in 2015. If so, did someone like Timothy Mark Burgess or Wallace B. Jefferson replace him, or was it a more conservative gentleman?

[Lord Admirale]

What has Romney done? Any of these?:
- Healthy Americans Act
- Value-Added Tax
- Military spending
- Welfare spending
- Minimum wage
- Gay marriage*

*I assume Kennedy retired if there was a Democratic Senate in 2015. If so, did someone like Timothy Mark Burgess or Wallace B. Jefferson replace him, or was it a more conservative gentleman?

More than likely all, and probably intervention in Syria

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Sanders has to spend much of the fall corralling Democrats who supported Hillary in the primaries and only reluctantly accepted him as the nominee; some on the centre-left of the party, dubbing themselves #NeverBernie, cross party lines to vote for President Romney. Nevertheless, Sanders manages to hold on in the party's traditional strongholds.

[Bidenworth2020]

Sanders has to spend much of the fall corralling Democrats who supported Hillary in the primaries and only reluctantly accepted him as the nominee; some on the centre-left of the party, dubbing themselves #NeverBernie, cross party lines to vote for President Romney. Nevertheless, Sanders manages to hold on in the party's traditional strongholds.

[Kingpoleon]

314: Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan - 50.3%
224: Bernie Sanders/Deval Patrick - 45.9%
Others - 3.8%

Romney is originally dragged down somewhat by House Minority Leader Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen. However, when the latter negotiates a $10.25 minimum wage within three years, as well as an immigration limit increase of 15% and an across-the-board income tax cut of 2%, her popularity rebounds. The Republicans gain two Senate seats net, winning Nevada(Heidi Gansert) and Colorado(Jack Graham). Kirk narrowly defeats Andrea Zopp.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Bernie BARELY takes Pennsylvania and holds onto other swing states. Pennsylvania is decided by only about 15,000 votes. Bernie gets higher margins in farther left Democratic strongholds such as Hawaii, Oregon, and Massachusetts.
Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren: 49.8% 278 EV
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 48.7% 260 EV
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: .9% 0 EV
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka: .3% 0 EV
Others: .3%

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A fairly popular incumbent president against a socialist atheist isn't just a defeat for democrats, it's an outright rout.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A fairly popular incumbent president against a socialist atheist isn't just a defeat for democrats, it's an outright rout.

I can't stand Sanders and think he'd do poorly in most match-ups, but this is absurd. no candidate is doing this well in our extremely polarized climate.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) / Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Wisc.) - 310 votes, 47.0%
Pres. Mitt Romney (Mass.) / VP Paul Ryan (Wisc.) - 228, 48.4%

Mitt vs Bernie = Hillary vs Trump.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) / Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Wisc.) - 310 votes, 47.0%
Pres. Mitt Romney (Mass.) / VP Paul Ryan (Wisc.) - 228, 48.4%

Mitt vs Bernie = Hillary vs Trump.

This is also absurd.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A fairly popular incumbent president against a socialist atheist isn't just a defeat for democrats, it's an outright rout.

I can't stand Sanders and think he'd do poorly in most match-ups, but this is absurd. no candidate is doing this well in our extremely polarized climate.

That's a 17 point win. Polarization absolutely reduces the margin of Romney's victory, but Sanders is such a god awful candidate I find it tough to imagine him winning any substantial portion of swing voters.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A fairly popular incumbent president against a socialist atheist isn't just a defeat for democrats, it's an outright rout.

I can't stand Sanders and think he'd do poorly in most match-ups, but this is absurd. no candidate is doing this well in our extremely polarized climate.

That's a 17 point win. Polarization absolutely reduces the margin of Romney's victory, but Sanders is such a god awful candidate I find it tough to imagine him winning any substantial portion of swing voters.

He's not only losing swing voters, here, he's losing reliably Democratic voters too.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A fairly popular incumbent president against a socialist atheist isn't just a defeat for democrats, it's an outright rout.

I can't stand Sanders and think he'd do poorly in most match-ups, but this is absurd. no candidate is doing this well in our extremely polarized climate.

That's a 17 point win. Polarization absolutely reduces the margin of Romney's victory, but Sanders is such a god awful candidate I find it tough to imagine him winning any substantial portion of swing voters.

He's not only losing swing voters, here, he's losing reliably Democratic voters too.

Turnout drops a lot, mostly.

[YE]

Questions like these are hard to answer without assuming the external circumstances of the election.

Are we assuming the economy is still good? Do Dems control the Senate in 2012 (possible in theory assuming uniform swing of 5.5% in swing states and a better Senate candidate in Nevada)? Is the electorate anti-establishment like 2016? Jalwest's map is possible if Romney had a 65-75% approval. Otherwise, no.

Romeny with....

55% approval? Sanders put up a decent fight and makes no serious gaffes but tanks big time in the suburbs.

45% approval? Sanders losers in a tight, polarized, hard fought race.

40% approval? See Obama 12 map.

Not sure how Romney's approval sinks below 40% barring a crisis. Dem base is restricted to millennials, inner cities, minorities, with eroding WWC support that largely depends on Romeny's job performance. There's no Trump to cause the suburban curbstomping we've seen IRL lately. Also not sure how Bernie gets nominated in the first place. Either Obama makes a comeback in 2016 or Dems likely move to the center, and nominate someone like Cory Booker.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd be expecting Romney to have an approval slightly higher than that of Obama's because of less Democratic polarization and him getting more credit for the boom in Obama's second term, so somewhere around 60%, maybe a bit below. I have him getting 54% of the vote, so he doesn't really win many voters who disapprove of him or are solid democratic partisans. Sanders underperforms mainly because he's too far left to really reach many swing voters, would lead to terrible turnout among the democratic base, and sheds votes to third parties. He'd have done 4 points better if turnout was at OTL 2012 levels.

[President Johnson]

If Mitt is able to unseat Barack Obama, then he'll beat Bernard as incumbent president.

✓ President Willard M. Romney (R-MA)/Vice President Paul D. Ryan (R-WI): 297 EV. (50.32%)
Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Jeff Merkeley (D-OR): 241 EV. (46.35%)

Pennsylvania and Virginia are the closest states, both within about 2%.

[Lechasseur]

Sanders has to spend much of the fall corralling Democrats who supported Hillary in the primaries and only reluctantly accepted him as the nominee; some on the centre-left of the party, dubbing themselves #NeverBernie, cross party lines to vote for President Romney. Nevertheless, Sanders manages to hold on in the party's traditional strongholds.

I think Romney would also take Maine and New Hampshire but otherwise probably about this.

[Chips]

Jesusland map with a few changes.



The election appears close at first. A highly competitive Dem primary results in an unexpected nominee, Bernie Sanders who thought he could use some of his grassroots support to win back key states like Ohio. However, the populist wave just doesn't get the same amount of momentum with a fairly popular incumbent running for a second term.

The final toss-up map looks something like this.



Red flags immediately hit with reports that Virginia was looking a lot more like Bush's solid win in 2004 than Romney's narrow win in 2012. North Carolina was almost immediately called and Ohio also looked bleak.

The race plays out like a quicker 2004. A few key wins for Sanders here and there but it quickly became evident most of the major battlegrounds would fall the president's way. Romney eventually wins 313-225 which was the 2004 map with Pennsylvania and Maine's second district flipped.