Jeff Flake running in 2020 as Independent?

[5280]

According to this, Jeff Flake wants to run against Donald Trump in 2020 as Independent if he cannot win the primaries. What's your thoughts?

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/washington/2017/12/24/jeff-flake-president-trump-2020-election/980218001/

[Mr. Morden]

According to this, Jeff Flake wants to run against Donald Trump in 2020 as Independent if he cannot win the primaries.

I don't read it that way at all.  Flake said that in his opinion, Trump's governing approach will lead to a primary challenger, or an a 3rd party challenger, but he didn't say that he, Jeff Flake, was going to do either of those things.  He gives the standard non-denial "I don't rule anything out", but it's a big jump to go from there to "Jeff Flake wants to run against Donald Trump in 2020".

[Cold War Liberal]

I like Jeff Flake, which is why he won't come close to beating Trump in a national Republican primary battle. He probably wouldn't even win Arizona. The only Republican I see having a shot at successfully winning a state against Trump is John Kasich, and even then I don't expect him to unseat Trump for the nomination.

The problem with Flake (and Murkowski and Collins and Corker and other people [besides Kasich] who have been floated as 2020 challengers) is that he's opposing a President who's still supported by ~80% of Republicans. That's still astonishingly low, but not low enough that his renomination is in trouble if he seeks it (and I think he will if he can).

[Mr. Morden]

The only Republican I see having a shot at successfully winning a state against Trump is John Kasich, and even then I don't expect him to unseat Trump for the nomination.

Kasich appears more likely to run in the first place, but I don't think Kasich running 1 on 1 against Trump would necessarily do any better than Flake running 1 on 1 against Trump.  Either of them could conceivably win one or two of Utah, DC, and Puerto Rico, but that's probably about it.  If there's a solid faction of Trump-skeptical Republicans in those places, then I'm not sure the identity of the challenger matters that much.

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To be sure, job approval and support to be re-nominated aren't quite the same thing.  Even now, we have polls that have Trump getting "only" 60-75% of Republicans in a hypothetical primary matchup against various challengers, despite 80% of Republicans approving of the job he's doing:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PPP_Release_National_121417.pdf

Bush got "only" 73% of the vote in the 1992 GOP primary when challenged by Pat Buchanan, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump ending up somewhere similar.  But that's obviously not enough for him to lose.

[Cold War Liberal]

The only Republican I see having a shot at successfully winning a state against Trump is John Kasich, and even then I don't expect him to unseat Trump for the nomination.

Kasich appears more likely to run in the first place, but I don't think Kasich running 1 on 1 against Trump would necessarily do any better than Flake running 1 on 1 against Trump.  Either of them could conceivably win one or two of Utah, DC, and Puerto Rico, but that's probably about it.  If there's a solid faction of Trump-skeptical Republicans in those places, then I'm not sure the identity of the challenger matters that much.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be sure, job approval and support to be re-nominated aren't quite the same thing.  Even now, we have polls that have Trump getting "only" 60-75% of Republicans in a hypothetical primary matchup against various challengers, despite 80% of Republicans approving of the job he's doing:

-snipped since I don't have 20 posts and thus can't post links-

Bush got "only" 73% of the vote in the 1992 GOP primary when challenged by Pat Buchanan, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump ending up somewhere similar.  But that's obviously not enough for him to lose.

Good points. As of right now, I really don't see Trump's renomination being in any trouble. Additionally, despite being historically unpopular, I don't see that changing unless his approvals drop into the teens, which I don't see as being probable due to polarization. Hell, Nixon still had a 25% approval rating when he resigned.

That doesn't mean there won't be a challenger, and if there is Kasich or Flake are probably the ones who will consider it (maybe Collins too) but I don't see them as being successful. Especially if there's more than one challenger splitting the anti-Trump vote.

[UncleSam]

Flake won't run against Trump and if he does he will get embarrassed.

Flake running as a third party may well hurt Dems down ballot in that anyone voting for him is a conservative who wasn't going to vote for Trump and therefore might not have bothered showing up for lesser races. Maybe he takes a quarter of a percent from Trump, but I doubt it is a significant amount or that he flips any states.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Can't flake the Flake.

[tosk]

Can't flake the Flake.

can't shake the flake?

[Medal506]

He'd do worse than Evan McMullen as Flake is not even a real conservative

[junior chįmp]

Hopefully he chooses Jeb! as his running late so we can return to the hillarity of the 2016 GOP primaries

[beaver2.0]

He'd do worse than Evan McMullen as Flake is not even a real conservative

How?  How is Jeff Flake not conservative?

[Grassroots]

Don't know much but the idea of a republican running as an independent is getting me interested. Will post tomorrow with my opinions this.

[Canis]

Flake as a indy would be like Johnson/Weld but worse he'd only get 2-3% of the vote tops and I'd be surprised if he got more than 5% in any state (besides utah if theirs not a mormon running in 2020 Flake could conceivably top 20% in Utah)

[Dr. MB]

Flake as a indy would be like Johnson/Weld but worse he'd only get 2-3% of the vote tops and I'd be surprised if he got more than 5% in any state (besides utah if theirs not a mormon running in 2020 Flake could conceivably top 20% in Utah)

Well Jeff Flake is a Mormon...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Flake as a indy would be like Johnson/Weld but worse he'd only get 2-3% of the vote tops and I'd be surprised if he got more than 5% in any state (besides utah if theirs not a mormon running in 2020 Flake could conceivably top 20% in Utah)

Well Jeff Flake is a Mormon...

If Trump is the Republican candidate, I could see Flake winning Utah. Probably nowhere else though (aside from maybe a county in Idaho).

[beaver2.0]

He'd do worse than Evan McMullen as Flake is not even a real conservative

How?  How is Jeff Flake not conservative?

The criteria is supporting Trump personally, not any policy. Anyone who doesn't is apparently a RINO.

If true, that is perhaps the most idiotic definition of the word conservative I've ever heard.

Flake as a indy would be like Johnson/Weld but worse he'd only get 2-3% of the vote tops and I'd be surprised if he got more than 5% in any state (besides utah if theirs not a mormon running in 2020 Flake could conceivably top 20% in Utah)

Well Jeff Flake is a Mormon...

I actually did not know that.

[IceSpear]

Flake has no principles. He's a "deficit hawk" who voted for the deficit busting tax scam. He's just as much of a fraud as Trump.

[TJ in Oregon]

'Tis the mark of a bad politician when you've managed to make everyone on every side hate you.

[MAINEiac4434]

Flake as an Indy should siphon off just enough GOP voters to flip Arizona to the Democrats.

[IceSpear]

Flake as an Indy should siphon off just enough GOP voters to flip Arizona to the Democrats.

I doubt he'd even do as well as McMullin.

[Grassroots]

We don’t need another mormon running for President.

Mormon = bad thing now?