MD-GOV 2018: Rate it.

[Suburbia]

I have MD-GOV 2018 as Lean R.

The Maryland Democrats that are running are Rushern Baker and Ben Jealous, black males. Jealous is seen as the frontrunner.

Main Democrats:
Rushern Baker, Prince Georges' County Executive
Ben Jealous, former NAACP chairman
Kevin B. Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive

Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican elected in the 2014 Republican wave, is running for reelection. I think he wins reelection despite Trump being the face of his party. Hogan can survive the anti-Trump backlash.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Democrats nominate anyone who is capable of running a competent campaign, they win.  Likely D.

[Doimper]

If Democrats nominate anyone who is capable of running a competent campaign, they win.  Likely D.

[Mr. Smith]

Toss-up/Tilt R

[Sestak]

Lean D. If I used tilts I'd have it Tilt D.

[History505]

Toss Up.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Toss-up/Tilt R

[PragmaticPopulist]

I have MD-GOV 2018 as Lean R.

The Maryland Democrats that are running are Rushern Baker and Ben Jealous, black males. Jealous is seen as the frontrunner.

Main Democrats:
Rushern Baker, Prince Georges' County Executive
Ben Jealous, former NAACP chairman
Kevin B. Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive

Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican elected in the 2014 Republican wave, is running for reelection. I think he wins reelection despite Trump being the face of his party. Hogan can survive the anti-Trump backlash.

Jealous isn't really considered the frontrunner, as much as the Bernie people would like you to believe. The state Democratic establishment is mostly divided between Baker and Kamenetz, but two big names, Senator Chris Van Hollen and Attorney General Brian Frosh are backing Baker, so I'd consider him the frontrunner.

As for the general, I have it closest to Leans R (I don't use tilt). MD is an inelastic state, and doesn't have a long history of electing R governors. It also hasn't often split tickets, whichi is what it will have to do in 2018 if Hogan were to win reelection. Cardin's coattails may doom Hogan.

[SNJ1985]

Likely D. Hogan won't be able to overcome the state's inelasticity now that there isn't a Democrat in the White House.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Toss up.

[smoltchanov]

Tilt R

[Rookie Yinzer]

Likely D. Hogan won't be able to overcome the state's inelasticity now that there isn't a Democrat in the White House.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D

There's basically no reason to vote for Hogan this year unless you're a Republican; no one is gonna care if out of state Moderate Heroes like him.

[Suburbia]

Lean D

There's basically no reason to vote for Hogan this year unless you're a Republican; no one is gonna care if out of state Moderate Heroes like him.

You could vote for Hogan for reelection because you liked his tax proposals, job gains, etc., a better feel than in 2014 with O'Malley.

I see him surviving the anti-Trump backlash.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D

There's basically no reason to vote for Hogan this year unless you're a Republican; no one is gonna care if out of state Moderate Heroes like him.

You could vote for Hogan for reelection because you liked his tax proposals, job gains, etc., a better feel than in 2014 with O'Malley.

I see him surviving the anti-Trump backlash.

Not a chance.  It may not even be that close tbh; Hogan needs crossover votes to win and he simply isn't gonna get those in a Democratic year (much less a Democratic tidal wave).  And that's without even getting into the massive Democratic voter turnout you'll see in places like Montgomery County.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tilt/Lean D

Being a Republican is a sin in Maryland, and also the fact that stuff hasn't improved a ton since Hogan got in.

I have talked to people who are offended by you voting for Trump/ being a pub.

[MAINEiac4434]

Likely D, closer to safe than lean. Hogan is DOA.

[Cactus Jack]

I'll give Hogan the benefit of the doubt and say Tossup, but I'm pretty sure he's cooked. The national environment just keeps turning more and more hostile, and Maryland just isn't elastic on the local level in the way Massachusetts is elastic.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Likely D, closer to safe than lean. Hogan is DOA.

This is wishful thinking until we see polls that have him losing.

[InheritTheWind]

Toss Up, but closer to Lean D. People still generally like Hogan; that's virtually guaranteed to go down once campaigning ramps up, just depends on how much it does.

[un]

Lean R. Why? Well, he's popular, simple as that. It really doesn't matter that he's in a deep blue state, at that point of popularity the voters vote for the status quo. Same thing in 2006, when Democrats won in landslides in Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, and Tennessee. All of those went to George W Bush easily. Even Republicans won in landslides that year, mostly in Hawaii, California, Connecticut, and Vermont. If their popular, most of the time, it's an easy win, no matter how red or blue it is.

[RINO Tom]

Toss-up/Tilt R

[_]

Toss-up/Tilt R

[TheSaint250]

Lean R

[smoltchanov]

Would say Tilt-R, but there wasn't such rating. But - obviously depends on Democratic candidate, with Baker, probably, being most electable.