MD-GOV 2018: Rate it.

[Dr. MB]

Lean R, close to Tilt though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tossup at this point. Hogan is still in for a tough fight because it’s Maryland and the amount of crossover voting he’ll need to win, but he’s not DOA.

[Rhenna]

Likely R

[Kevin]

Lean/Tilt R as of now.

[The Other Castro]

Lean R for now, but it has a strong potential to tighten up.

[KingSweden]

Lean/Tilt R as of now.

[fluffypanther19]

Lean R, close to Tilt though.

[UncleSam]

Lean R - had this as tossup and it could well get back there, but the Hogan collapse and Baker surge Atlas promised me all winter haven't happened yet.

Still plenty of time though, obviously.

[NewYorkExpress]

Tilt D, but in terms of the ratings used on the screen Tossup.

Unless Democrats run a really stupid campaign this race will be close, and they will be slightly favored. Remember Bob Ehlrich?

[Mike Thick]

Lean R for now, but it has a strong potential to tighten up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lean R for now, but it has a strong potential to tighten up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This one is so tough to predict. Hogan's apparent popularity versus a potential Democratic wave in one of the (Atlas) reddest states in the country. I'll go with Lean R though. It's still probably too early to say for sure, but I didn't put the word "pessimistic" in my username for nothing!

[Cold War Liberal]

Lean R against anyone but Baker, Tossup with Rushern. Most polls show that Hogan is polling well ahead of every Democrat (including Baker), but he's mostly kept under 50% IIRC (though it's usually 48-49% with like ~10% undecided, so little room for error from the Democrats if polling stays the same) so it's not Safe R or anything.

If there are any blue state Republicans who stand a chance of surviving a Democratic tsunami, they're Hogan and Charlie Baker. Still, I'm hoping the wave is big enough to wipe them both out, but I'm pessimistic about Baker's chances, even if I love him.

I will probably volunteer for Baker's campaign in the summer. I have also been appointed an election judge, which is something Hogan technically did (not in person). Awkward!

[Senator-elect Spark]

Lean R

[Duke of York]

Safe R. Northeastern states love their sensible Republicans. Places like MA, MD, and VT eat that stuff up. These are state contests too. It will be pretty much divorced from any national Trump problems. Not to mention that MD probably remembers why they elected Hogan in the first place.

I would not underestimate the potential for an upset in Maryland. Democrats have a very high floor there around 48 percent. In 2006 Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich was rather popular and lost handedly to Martin O Malley.

[Canis]

Would be tossup  with a good candidate but Hogans approvals are too high the dems are polling to low so right now Likely R

[Kleine Scheiße]

Much, if not most, of Hogan’s approval is attributable to name recognition and the fact that he isn’t Anthony Brown or Martin O’Malley. Outside of rural areas (which would largely vote Republican anyway), Hogan is more tolerated and appreciated than he is actually approved of. Nobody knows who most of the Democrats are outside of us junkies, let’s get real. Anecdotally (which is meaningful but hardly any end-all-be-all) a surprising number of the Democrats I know that “approve” of Hogan just think he’s doing “alright” but have no shortage of complaints. Palatability and concession of political skill isn’t approval though it sounds similar through polling.

Tilt D, but closer to tossup than I’d like to admit.

[Del Tachi]

Tossup at this point. Hogan is still in for a tough fight because it’s Maryland and the amount of crossover voting he’ll need to win, but he’s not DOA.

[Ye We Can]

Safe R. Northeastern states love their sensible Republicans. Places like MA, MD, and VT eat that stuff up. These are state contests too. It will be pretty much divorced from any national Trump problems. Not to mention that MD probably remembers why they elected Hogan in the first place.

I would not underestimate the potential for an upset in Maryland. Democrats have a very high floor there around 48 percent. In 2006 Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich was rather popular and lost handedly to Martin O Malley.

Hogan is much more popular than Erlich ever was though

[Bidenworth2020]

Something interesting to think about- In 2002, Erlich had MUCH better margins in the big three and did better nearly across the board in margins (besides eastern MD), yet he had a margin of victory nearly identical to Hogans. This was because, in 2002, turnout was MUCH better in the big three and about the same in rep areas, compared to 2015, where turnout dropped by double digits in the big three. Hogan undoubtedly won because of the terrible turnout. If the 2014 election happened under a 2002 turnout model, Brown wins by 2. Now, you could say that Hogan has established a brand while in office, but 2 arguably much bigger factors are 1, Trump being radioactive, and 2, the turnout gap that we have seen in special elections. If either of these two factors goes the Democrats' way, like huge turnout in PG and MoCo for Dems(which, if Baker is the nominee, will really give him a boost), will tilt this towards the Democrats. As for polling, it is pretty impressive that they have already gotten their name rec so high, really shows that people are looking for another option(like me). I fully expect the polling to tighten up and, for this race to be a true tossup.

[Vespucci]

Tossup at this point. Hogan is still in for a tough fight because it’s Maryland and the amount of crossover voting he’ll need to win, but he’s not DOA.