TX SEN: Cruz +14 (CB Polling)

[Doimper]

lmao @ how easily LimoLiberal was suckered by this fake poll

[DrScholl]

Fake polls are so sad.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to illustrate what I mean with the "inurl:" command. Posts published both before and after the supposed date of publication of the AL-SEN poll post show up just fine; all posts in fact show up via that command...except the one last modified today claiming they predicted a tied Alabama race. What are the odds?

[Adam Griffin]

In their defense, it appears this image was uploaded to Imgur 18 days ago (AFAIK that can't be forged), so perhaps they really did have some poll showing this result somewhere...but the spoofing of the broader post to appear as if it was made before the election calls into question any validity of their outfit whatsoever.

[LimoLiberal]

Holy sh**t. Nice work. Still no blue wave, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's this tweet from 28 minutes before.

"Democrat @GDouglasJones on verge of clinching #ALSEN race tomorrow."

https://twitter.com/CBPolling/status/940559922856693760

The odd thing is that it includes a URL that says Roy Moore built a significant lead, but then redirects to that link.

Maybe they just decided that was a dumb URL and renamed it.

If they were really sneaky, they could have deleted tweets and deleted webpages.

Anyways, while they could be the next Overtime, Griffin's analysis is inconclusive.

[Young Conservative]

Safe Republican.

A 14 point lead 11 months before the election and with a questionable pollster is safe? Ok.

It isn't safe because of this, but it is still safe R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can't win em all.

[Bidenworth2020]

Can't win em all.

do not focus on being down and focus on BTFOing Cruz!

[gorelick]

The poster here is wrong. They didn't change the content. They just changed the URL of the post.

Look at the Twitter post timelines.

twitter dot com/CBPolling/status/940401150762934272


They posted their poll on Dec 11, night before elections. They just changed the URL of the post. Not their results or content.

The OP should delete his post as its based on inaccurate premise.


"TL;DR: at best, "CB Polling" edited the AL-SEN post above after the fact to make it look like it was predictive; at worst, the post itself was created today to defend its track record on here and then "gorelick" posted the fake AL-SEN poll info on here. There's no evidence - unlike the other, comparably old posts on CB's website - that the page existed prior to the AL-SEN election."

This is totally wrong and unsupported assertion. Also they host their pdf results on different page and link to it. Can OP check thru Sitemap when this page was hosted -  cbpolling.press/home/alabama-senate-general-election-2017/


Further proof - this was posted to reddit a day  before the election .   reddit dot com/r/Conservative/comments/7j8a52/democrat_doug_jones_on_verge_of_clinching_alabama/

OP is literally spreading FAKE NEWS.
 

[The Other Castro]

At best, this is a group of people taking some Google Surveys and making them look pretty. At worst, it could be someone trying to use these “polls” to manipulate PredictIt markets by tricking users that don’t know any better. Regardless, CB Polling should not be considered a pollster in any sense of the word.

[gorelick]

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Can I know why a pollster that uses Google surveys shouldn't be considered reliable ?

Nate Silver rates them 'B', which is pretty respectable


 projects.fivethirtyeight  dot com/pollster-ratings/

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This statement makes no sense, they are just displaying results of Google Surveys. They are not making numbers up.

[Blair]

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Can I know why a pollster that uses Google surveys shouldn't be considered reliable ?

Nate Silver rates them 'B', which is pretty respectable


 projects.fivethirtyeight  dot com/pollster-ratings/

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This statement makes no sense, they are just displaying results of Google Surveys. They are not making numbers up.

I assume you're in no way connected to said polling company

[gorelick]

Nice deflection. When you can't argue on merit of arguments, then attack the source. Its an old high school debate trick.

Some people here first called the poll fake, when I disproved it then you proceed to attack Google Surveys.

When I pointed out that Google Surveys is rated a respectable 'B' by 538, then you attack the poster.

[The Other Castro]

Idk what Silvers’ basis is, but a history of those surveys on this forum and elsewhere should make people skeptical of the results. Anyway, CB Polling is not a pollster, nor would I be a pollster if I called myself Atlas Polling and published Google Surveys on a website. It is very easy to take multiple Google Surveys with wildly different results (as can occur with multiple Google Surveys of the same race, see MT-AL special), keep the one that’s in the best interest of the survey creator, and promote it under the guise of a legitimate polling group. I’m not saying the Google Surveys themselves are fake, just that they can be misused, and taking a Google Survey and giving your group a real-sounding name (not really though) does not make you a pollster.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

There's this tweet from 28 minutes before.

"Democrat @GDouglasJones on verge of clinching #ALSEN race tomorrow."

https://twitter.com/CBPolling/status/940559922856693760

The odd thing is that it includes a URL that says Roy Moore built a significant lead, but then redirects to that link.

Maybe they just decided that was a dumb URL and renamed it.

If they were really sneaky, they could have deleted tweets and deleted webpages.

Anyways, while they could be the next Overtime, Griffin's analysis is inconclusive.

Oops. I take back my earlier comment. CB polling is real therefore there Texas poll is real therefore blue wave narrative is BTFO.

I can't wait to see your reaction on November 9th, 2018.

[gorelick]

@Castro

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Totally agree with this, thats why CBPolling seems to conduct 3 different Google polls and combine results to reduce any sample bias.

You would have known that if you had spent few minutes reading the post instead of jumping on "Fake News" bandwagon just because you didn't like the poll.

[The Other Castro]

Interesting how defensive one can be regarding a group to which he or she totally isn’t connected. I did read the polls, I checked out their website, and just as they could cherrypick one out of a few surveys to promote, they could also cherrypick a particular three out of several surveys to promote. I’m not saying this kind of malicious action has been taken in this case, just that one cannot tell, and that one must be especially weary of these kinds of groups given that there have been similar groups that have done this exact kind of thing with the intent of manipulating PredictIt markets.

[gorelick]

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PredictIt uses RealClearPolitics as sources for their polls. and CBPolling is not listed on RCP. So to argue that CBPolling is being used to manipulate PredictIt markets is an argument with no backing.

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This is just a  ridiculous statement. You are saying they do 10-15 polls everytime and cherry pick the one they want?  Lets see what they had for Virginia and Alabama Senate.

For Virginia, they had a virtual tie and for AL they had a slight lead for Jones. Both those polls are inline with results of mainstream pollsters. Quinnipiac had race tied in Virginia and Jones was leading slightly in Monmouth in Alabama. So your argument of poll cherry picking is an argument proven wrong by those 2 results.

At this point, you are just clutching to straws trying to find some minor thing somewhere to discredit them

[The Other Castro]

There’s probably no sense in arguing since I do suspect you may be associated with this thing, but trust me I know how PredictIt works. I’ve laid out my concerns with this group and this poll.

[gorelick]

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Your argument is nonsense. If anyone wanted to manipulate betting markets like PredictIT then why would they release polls which agree with mainstream pollsters like Monmouth and Quinnipiac.

If I wanted to manipulate betting markets then I would release polls which are way off mainstream to cause panic among bettors. Your argument is shallow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX, TN aren't tipping point races. However, if the wave is big enough they will fall into Democratic hands.

[cvparty]

fake poll!!

[heatcharger]

Lmao this has to be the most prominent example of astroturfing on Atlas since StatesPoll, right?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

If O'Rourke pulls this off it would be the biggest victory for progressives in a long time.
Sadly though I don't see it happening except with very high urban turnout or some scandal against Cruz.