How do Republicans win California now?

[Suburbia]

How do Republicans win in California, in the era of today? The California demographics clearly Democrats, as an influx of immigrants from Mexico have voted for the California Democratic Party to create a one-party state like the Texas Republicans. Past California Republicans such as Ronald Reagan, Pete Wilson, Richard Riordan, even Arnold Schwarzenegger are no longer there to provide advice to the California Republican Party.

http://blueprint.ucla.edu/sketch/california-republicans-where-have-they-gone/

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/republicans-are-nearly-extinct-in-parts-of-california.html

Darrell Issa, Duncan Hunter, Jr. look vulnerable in 2018 House midterm elections.

How do California Republicans win? Where do California Republicans win?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It would require some sort of realignment, wherein the Republican Party becomes socially moderate, liberal on immigration, and center-right on economics.

[RFayette]

It would require some sort of realignment, wherein the Republican Party becomes socially moderate, liberal on immigration, and center-right on economics.

That may be enough to win California circa 1996 or even 2004, but the California of today is also quite left-wing economically due to generational replacement and demographic changes.  It will vote for the more progressive of two parties in almost any alignment of the two parties.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It would require some sort of realignment, wherein the Republican Party becomes socially moderate, liberal on immigration, and center-right on economics.

That may be enough to win California circa 1996 or even 2004, but the California of today is also quite left-wing economically due to generational replacement and demographic changes.  It will vote for the more progressive of two parties in almost any alignment of the two parties.

At the very least, going left on social issues and immigration should allow Republicans to at least keep California within 10-15 points in a close national election.

[Dr. MB]

Republicans' last major victory in California was Proposition 8. Today, there's no chance in hell it could get passed. New York City elected a string of two Republican mayors. Today, even Bloomberg would have a hard time (if he ran as a Republican, that is). Things can and do happen in a very short amount of time, but I think the leftward shift in California is permanent (at least for a generation or two).

[MarkD]

A peek at the electoral college maps of 2000, 2004, and 2016 indicates that Republicans don't even have to try to win California.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A peek at the electoral college maps of 2000, 2004, and 2016 indicates that Republicans don't even have to try to win California.

That doesn't really answer the question though. 

[Suburbia]

Kevin Faulconer or Steve Knight could win in California if the CA Democrats implode or wear out after over-promising. Maybe.

[LeRaposa]

They can't. California is just not a state where any Republican can compete at the state level. The GOP is too far to the right to compete in the state anymore. Sure Republicans can win in places likes Massachusetts and Vermont but those states are different.The demographics are very different from California.

[King Lear]

As someone who lives in California, I can happily assure you this state is not voting Republican at any level anytime soon. I could envision Californias Democratic streak lasting as long as the Republican streak lasted in Vermont (from 1856-1960) due to the fact the state is overwhelmingly Nonwhite, heavily urbanized, and Nonreligious all factors that favor Democrats. Evan Orange County, that as recently as a couple years ago was viewed as a "unpenatrable Republican stronghold" was won by Hillary Clinton last year (by 9 points even), and if next year goes well for Democrats could see all its Republican congresspeople thrown out. Finally, unlike others on this forum I find it difficult to imagine the republicans going to the middle on social issues and immigration, because even if that would cause them to win a few more minority's and young people, they would lose many White Evangelicals (many would stay home) which would negate whatever slight gains they made with other groups and cause them to lose by even larger margins.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

California Democrats rule with an iron fist from 2010-2030/2034 and in the second half become increasingly corrupt and complacent in their actions. This boils over to the point where the California Republican Party looks like a palatable option to enough voters by 2030-2034.

This is certainly a possibility, I would also throw in the possibility of friction between various groups that compromise the Democratic Party. A divide between say middle class Asians and Hispanics versus Progressive elements perhaps, that with the top two system a wealthy self funding Republican could wedge him or herself between and ride to victory. There are other possible ethnic + socioeconomic clashes that could likewise lead to a Republican Governor victory.

[YE]

An R vs. R runoff.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How much did Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor hurt the gop there

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

How much did Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor hurt the gop there

Not as much as Pete Wilson's did.

[twenty42]

At some point in the 21st century, we will have an extremely unpopular Democratic president who will put all of safe/solid D states in play. Polarization isn’t going to last forever, and I assume we will revert to the mean and get back to having alternating landslides in presidential elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How much did Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor hurt the gop there

Not as much as Pete Wilson's did.

I don’t think he can be blamed as much as he has been as the gop was still competitive state wide their until 2008(senate elections had incumbents and those are usually easily won if they are popular)


It seems like the really collapsed during Bush’s 2nd term

[President Johnson]

How much did Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor hurt the gop there

Not as much as Pete Wilson's did.

I don’t think he can be blamed as much as he has been as the gop was still competitive state wide their until 2008(senate elections had incumbents and those are usually easily won if they are popular)


It seems like the really collapsed during Bush’s 2nd term

Well, in some 2010 races they did also well. Kamala Harris won her first term as attorney general by about 1% (46-45%).

The new primary system is certainly not helping the GOP either because they mostly get to a run-off if the Democrat is an incumbent. On the state level, it also depends on the person. I think Kevin Faulconer would be competative in a year with a bad national climate for Democrats.

[Free Bird]

The best course would probably to focus on criminal justice reform and moderate on social issues then pray to every deity known to man.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kamala Harris almost lost the state in 2010 in her attorney general campaign.

[TheSaint250]

How much did Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor hurt the gop there

I'd say what hurt it the most was the instituting of the current top-two system

[IceSpear]

If the parties switch again like they did after the Civil Rights Act.

[IceSpear]

At some point in the 21st century, we will have an extremely unpopular Democratic president who will put all of safe/solid D states in play. Polarization isn’t going to last forever, and I assume we will revert to the mean and get back to having alternating landslides in presidential elections.

Bush's 25% approval rating, extremely unpopular Middle East quagmires, botched Katrina response, and even topping it off with an economic collapse less than 2 months (!) before the election didn't put safe R states into play unless you count Indiana. I don't see it happening.

[Ye We Can]

They don't.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the parties switch again like they did after the Civil Rights Act.

In How many elections from 1896-1960 did the GOP nominate the more Liberal Candidate.

[Suburbia]

Orange County, California is still R+1-R+5. Lean R, but the demographics are trending towards Democratic (Hispanics, white liberal suburbanites)

Kevin Faulconer and Ashley Swearengin are the future of the CA GOP, not minuteman Tim Donnelly and the right wing CA GOP operatives.

A Faluconer/Swearengin ticket could beat a overconfident, divided, exhausted CA Democratic Party machine in the 2020s or 2030s.