DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[Diouf]

In other news, there is some criticism in the Alternative of party leader Uffe Elbæk, but I'm not sure how big the dissatisfaction is. It has been mainly been Carolina Magdalene Maier, who lost her seat in the election but was parliamentary group leader, and some local councillors and representatives. But Elbæk's original plan was to retire as leader during this new term, before the party suddenly came up with the idea of making him PM candidate. And now that the party does not seem likely to be needed for a majority, Elbæk might leave sooner rather than later in this term.

[Ethelberth]

If Danmark would use Faorese system on national level (two MPs per kreds)

V   85
A   85
B     6
OE   6
C     2

So, Red bloc majority without O representation.

[Diouf]

So far the four parties have spent the time on thematic talks around different issues each day, like climate change, immigration, economy, day care etc. There haven't been a whole lot concrete measures publicly agreed on nor leaked in the media, so little way of knowing how much progress has been really made yet. Thursday-Sunday this week, there is the Folkemøde on Bornholm, where many politicians, media people etc. will go, so I guess the negotiations might stall a bit.

Parliament will open on 20 June, and the new Speaker and deputy Speakers will be elected along with committee members etc. on 21 June. There might not be any agreement on the government yet, which could complicate this election. Among Social Democrats, Henrik Dam Kristensen, who held different ministerial posts 1994-2001, 2011-2013 and 2014-2015, is probably the most likely speaker. However, there is also talk about the Social Liberals getting the post for Marianne Jelved, who was Social Liberal leader 1990-2007, Minister of Economy 1993-2001 and Minister of Culture 2012-2015. Or perhaps even the Social Liberals showing off their centrist credentials by voting for Liberal Bertel Haarder, who has been a MP for more than 38 years (since 1975, interrupted by a MEP term) and the longest-serving minister (more than 22 years) since parlamentarism became the norm in 1901.

[ingemann]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

No, as mentioned earlier in the thread, she is the new leader of Save the Children in Denmark. Red-Green Alliance has a rotation principle, so you can't be a parliamentary candidate after having been in parliament for seven years straight. They also have some rules for parliamentary employees and board members.

This rotation principle also means that the current leader, Pernille Skipper, can't run next election. The red-green alliance are really making things difficult for themselves with this principle. This election also saw the loss of by far their strongest MP on financial matters (something often neglected by the left wing), Palle Dragsted. So far the party has been quite succesful in constantly finding new talented people to put in front, but I wonder how long that will last. I'm not sure when they will make the next leadership change, but seeing that Skipper can't run next time, surely they will have to do so quite soon.

I usual don't defend the Unity List, but I think the concept make a lot of sense for them. Unity List doesn't have the same need for institutional knowledge as parties closer to the center of power, so not a lot is lost on that issue. Also the rotation princip force the Unity List to work on their talent mass, if it hadn't been for that princip we wouldn't have seen Rosenkrantz-Theil, Schmidt-Nielsen and Skipper (of course we would also have avoided Asmaa), instead we would have seen the party's parlimental group being dominated by fossils from the seventies. It's quite likely that Unity List would have disappeared if not for that princip.

[BlueSwan]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

No, as mentioned earlier in the thread, she is the new leader of Save the Children in Denmark. Red-Green Alliance has a rotation principle, so you can't be a parliamentary candidate after having been in parliament for seven years straight. They also have some rules for parliamentary employees and board members.

This rotation principle also means that the current leader, Pernille Skipper, can't run next election. The red-green alliance are really making things difficult for themselves with this principle. This election also saw the loss of by far their strongest MP on financial matters (something often neglected by the left wing), Palle Dragsted. So far the party has been quite succesful in constantly finding new talented people to put in front, but I wonder how long that will last. I'm not sure when they will make the next leadership change, but seeing that Skipper can't run next time, surely they will have to do so quite soon.

I usual don't defend the Unity List, but I think the concept make a lot of sense for them. Unity List doesn't have the same need for institutional knowledge as parties closer to the center of power, so not a lot is lost on that issue. Also the rotation princip force the Unity List to work on their talent mass, if it hadn't been for that princip we wouldn't have seen Rosenkrantz-Theil, Schmidt-Nielsen and Skipper (of course we would also have avoided Asmaa), instead we would have seen the party's parlimental group being dominated by fossils from the seventies. It's quite likely that Unity List would have disappeared if not for that princip.

I do see your point, but even a wing party needs some expertise. As I wrote, I think the loss of Pelle Dragsted is actually bigger than the loss of Johanne. The left is in DIRE need of people with insight into fiscal policy and macroeconomics. I hope he runs again next time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone working on a map for this? I'd be curious to see party and bloc standings.

[mgop]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I assume in Copenhagen that the areas going for B are much more upper-class sorts of people while areas going for Ø are either high immigrant or very working-class? I don't know the coalitions extremely well but I'd assume immigrants were not fans on the A's rightward shift on immigration, yes?

[Diouf]

Negotiations are ongoing. So far it has been negotiations between Frederiksen and the parties individually, but tonight it was the plan that the four parties should meet and conclude an agreement on climate change. However, the Social Liberals don't feel the negotiations have progressed enough to reach that stage, and want concessions on economy and immigration before going on to the stage of concluding agreements. Frederiksen's playbook seems to be to get the parties to agree on the easiest things first (climate, education, culture etc.) so that there are many good things on the table at the end. So if any of the parties hesistate about giving the final approval due to concerns about immigration or economy, she can say "Do you really want to throw away all the nice things we agreed upon?" Social Liberals are trying to prevent that from happening.
Parliament opens tomorrow, and the new Speaker and other parliamentary roles are elected on Friday.

[Diouf]

With the Social Liberals not in the room, Red-Green leader Pernille Skipper on her Instagram story announced that the three parties had agreed on a 70% reduction of greenhouse gasses in 2030. Shortly after, the Social Liberals held a press conference with leader Morten Østergaard and deputy leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen on their reasons for staying away. They stated that they were disappointed with Frederiksen's way of handling the negotiations with announcing a partial agreement on climate today. He said the party has been very clear that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed", so a full government deal needs to be ready. His argument was that the parties risk letting down people's exceptations if they announced big agreements on some areas without an economic policy to back it up, but is clear that it also important for the party not to be cornered in these negotiations. Østergaard said that Frederiksen's conduct had hurt their confidence in her handling of the negotiations. He said he is fully willing to continue negotiations if they don't include partial agreements during the course.

[Diouf]

Parliament opened today, and the most experienced MP Bertel Haarder (Liberals) is temporary speaker until tomorrow, when the Speaker is elected. The only parliamentary business today was to set up the Electoral Committee, who will look into how the election was carried out, and, barring some weird Austrian failures, will tomorrow recommend to the full parliament that the election result is approved.



It seems like New Right's Pernille Vermund is seated next to the Alternative's Sikandar Siddique in the new parliament

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone working on a map for this? I'd be curious to see party and bloc standings.

I would normally have had something up already, but I've been a bit busy - something will be started on soon though.

[Diouf]

The 62-year old Henrik Dam Kristensen (Social Democrats) has been elected as the new Speaker. Dam Kristensen was elected with the support of all parties in parliament. All the Red Bloc parties were behind him, and since he is very well-respected neither of the Blue Bloc parties put up a candidate against him. He was originally a postman for eight years before having shorter stints in the Danish Refugee Council & the Association for Education of Workers (night schools & continuing education). He was elected a MP in 1990, and in 1994 he became Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries. A post he had until 2000 (although being renamed Minister of Food), when he was Minister of Social Affairs for a year before the Social Democrat defeat in 2001. He was elected a MEP in 2004, but already in 2006 decided to return to Denmark, where he ran for parliament again in 2007 and was elected. From 2011 to 2013, he was Minister of Transportation, and from 2014-2015 Minister of Employment.

The Liberals has the First Deputy Speaker post but hasn't chosen a permanent person for the role yet, outgoing Speaker Pia Kjærsgaard (DPP) will be Second Deputy Speaker, former Liberal MP and MEP, Jens Rohde, will be Third Deputy Speaker for the Social Liberals, while Trine Torp will be Fourth Deputy Speaker for SPP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone working on a map for this? I'd be curious to see party and bloc standings.

I would normally have had something up already, but I've been a bit busy - something will be started on soon though.

Much appreciated!

[Diouf]

Agreement between the four parties on a new government. A Social Democrat minority government. Mette Frederiksen will likely be appointed PM today, and then her full government will probably be presented tomorrow or Friday.

[Diouf]

Broad agreement on key priorities allows new government to be formed



Late Tuesday night, the Social Democrats, Social Liberals, SPP and Red-Green Alliance agreed on an 18 page memorandum of understanding, which allows Mette Frederiksen to create a Social Democrat minority government. The main points of the agreement include:

An ambitious climate policy with the goal of a 70% reduction in green house gas emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. This shall help ensure that Denmark fulfills the demands in the Paris Agreement. The exact measures are not described in depth, but it mentions a stop of selling petrol and diesel cars in 2030(EU-regulated), more investments in public transportation and cycling and a more sustainable air transport sector. There are also passages about reducing the emissions from the agricultural sector, increasing plastic tariffs, and including climate and environment assessments in the standard Finance Ministry assessment of new policy measures.

On child care and education, the parties have agreed to introduce minimum staffing ratios in child care (although not what the ratio should be nor whether the municipalities will see fully increased funding or have to transfer funds from other areas to fulfill that centralized demand). Standardised national tests will no longer be carried out among the youngest school children. The funding of the education sector will be increased. Private schools should take in more pupils from challenged areas if they are to avoid subsidy cuts.

There is agreement on finding a new benefit system to replace the current benefit cap and the lower benefits for foreigners. The new system should hinder child poverty, encourage employment and simplify the system. Until a new model has been found and agreed upon, there will be a temporary benefit increase for families with children aged 14 or below.

On welfare, the parties want to educate more nurses and health care personnel, reduce the level of bureaucracy, increase tobacco tariffs and introduce free psychologist treatment for those younger than 25 years.

On immigration, the agreement has some significant conessions to the other centre-left parties, but many of the current broad policy lines are kept. The most significant concession is probably that refugees, who no longer need protection, will be allowed to stay in Denmark if they have worked for two years straight. The whole point of the so-called paradigm shift was that refugees, who no longer need protection, should be forced to leave to a much bigger degree than now, partly by giving much less importance to whether they have worked or finished education while in Denmark. The other concessions were more expected. The families with children at the centre for rejected asylum seekers will be moved to a new, separate centre with better conditions, the proposed new centre for foreign criminals awaiting deportation on a remote island will not be created, and Denmark will start taking UN quota refugees again (number not specified). The Social Democrat wish of a new asylum system is mentioned (with fewer/none spontanteous asyum seekers, more support for areas with many refugees), but it focuses on working on this internationally and staying within conventions.

There is relatively little concrete on the economic policies, but the agreement sets out some guidelines that might be difficult to follow simultaneously. It states that the existing budget laws kept, the overall labour supply should stay at least on the current level (so initiatives to reduce it should be followed by other inititiatives to increase it), inequality must not increase, taxes for high earners shouldn't be lowered and the social safety net should not be worsened. Frederiksen has said in comments that she wants to find money by making "targeted tax increases" but not on income. She mentions increased inheritance taxes, particularly for those inheriting high sums. She also wants to lower the spending on consultants in the public sector (sounds as difficult as the bureaucracy reduction). The parties agree to carry through the previous government + DPP + Social Liberals agreement on improved early retirement possibilities for worn-down workers, but there is not agreement on Frederiksen's own proposal of a differentiated retirement age where some (unspecified groups) will be able to retire early, whether they are worn down or not. Frederiksen says she hopes she can get an agreement for this in parliament with another majority (i.e. probably hoping to convince DPP).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why weren't the Alternative part kf of the agreement?

[Diouf]

Why weren't the Alternative part kf of the agreement?

Their seats weren't necessary for a majority. Social Democrats + Social Liberals + SPP + Red-Green Alliance + Faroese and Greenlandic Social Democrats = 93 seats. It takes 90 seats to reach a majority. And the Alternative message before and after the election was that their PM candidate was party leader Uffe Elbæk and that the party belonged to a separate "Green Bloc". If the above-mentioned parties had not reached 90 seats, the expectation is that the Alternative would have carried on with their Elbæk-idea for a day or three after an election, and would then join the other parties in getting behind Mette Frederiksen as their PM candidate. But since their seats weren't needed and the other parties were quite mad at them for pulling that stunt, they weren't a part of the government negotiations. The Alternative also realized this themselves, and quickly started talking about themselves as the "green watchdog" of the new parliament. If push comes to shove, and Frederiksen in some way was in trouble, I think it's very likely they would support her government in a confidence vote. But since we are unlikely to get to this point, one can argue about the exact status of the Alternative. They are not a support party, but probably not really an opposition party either. And their problem is that it's difficult to imagine that their seats will be decisive at any point. With only five seats, they can't replace any of the other centre-left parties in a majority combination, so it would probably require several defections/rebels on a question for them to become even slightly interesting in the parliamentary arithmetic.
An interesting question is what the Alternative Elbæk-strategy will mean in the coming years. If the Red Bloc majority can carry through green, progressive policies in many areas, the party could crumble away as the majority parties will get all the benefits and attention (even if Alternative will vote for many of these deals). However, if the government fails to deliver on some of their great left-wing promises, the Alternative should be well positioned to pick up disillusioned Red Bloc voters if they get their internal battles under control (and perhaps a new Leader?).

In terms of the green policies in particular, it is BTW worth noting that DPP has made Morten Messerschmidt, their arguably greatest attack weapon, spokesperson on Environment and Climate. So DPP have probably decided to make this one of their best ways of attacking and differentiating themselves from the Social Democrats. And they count on the concrete green policies being much more unpopular and expensive to carry through than the positive ambitious climate targets.

[Diouf]

Youngest ever PM presents government with many young faces



On Thursday, PM Mette Frederiksen presented her new Social Democrat minority government. Frederiksen, aged 41, is Denmark's youngest ever PM, and the average age of the new cabinet is the youngest in history as well with an average age of 41.8, and 9 ministers below the age of 40. However, it is not an inexperienced government. 9 out of the 20 ministers were also ministers during Thorning-Schmidt's term in office.

After Sass Larsen's demise, the third wheel in the party leadership, Nicolai Wammen, gets the influential post as Minister of Finance. The new Minister of Foreign Affairs is a lot more surprising. MEP Jeppe Kofod, who has just been re-elected after being the Social Democrat lead candidate, will now have that prominent post. It is not because his credentials are poor. He studied international relations at Harvard, was a MP 1998-2014 and MEP 2014-2019 with a big focus on international affairs, and he did decently as lead candidate for the Social Democrats in 2014 and 2019. But he has had some "bad cases" which means many did not see him in consideration for such a high post. In 2008, the 34-year old Kofod was a speaker at a Social Democrat Youth conference, where he ended up sleeping with a 15-year old member. The backlash meant he had to give up all committee and spokesperson posts for a while. And in 2016, he again became a semi-caricature after the tweets below, which do not exactly ooze diplomacy and cool-headedness:

https://twitter.com/JeppeKofod/status/732981536270778369
https://twitter.com/JeppeKofod/status/734989622674132992

With regards to the other ministers, it generally seems like the experienced ministers have mostly been awarded new areas, while the younger faces have generally been appointed ministers within the areas where they have spent most of their energy and helped develop policy. In the former category, there is Minister of Justice Nick Hækkerup, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke, Minister of Taxation Morten Bødskov and Minister of Transportation Benny Engelbrecht. In the latter category, you have Minister of Environment Lea Wermelin, Minister of Integration Mattias Tesfaye, Minister of Housing Kaare Dybvad, Minister of Children and Education Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil and Minister of Employment Peter Hummelgaard.

On the important area of climate and energy, Dan Jørgensen has become the new Minister. He was a MEP from 2004-2013 before becoming Minister of Food and Agriculture until 2015, where he was elected MP. He will have a well-known personal friend as one of the biggest political opponents. Jørgensen was a MEP alongside Messerschmidt, and the two became the most well-known Danish MEPs by making popular radio and TV shows where they discussed contemporary EU policy issues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Internal boundary in Dragør a little approximate, but I think probably about right. Ish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that the keys are the same as for the national maps. I might later do a set with a key related more to the results in the city.