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| | |-+  6th October, Latvian elections
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Author Topic: 6th October, Latvian elections  (Read 2726 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2018, 05:04:42 pm »

The last vote dump (not sure if actually from the UK or Ireland) has indeed increased the gap between KPV LV, which are now well over 14%, and the New Cons; and NA has overtaken ZZS. Harmony now below 20%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2018, 06:28:31 pm »

On current numbers the seat distribution would be:

Harmony 24
New Cons 16
KPV LV 15
NA 13
PAR 13
ZZS 11
New Unity 8
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 06:31:48 pm by DavidB. »Logged
Diouf
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2018, 04:05:43 am »

With 16 polling places remaining

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DavidB.
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2018, 07:10:21 am »

All votes are in. One seat shifted from Harmony to KPV LV.

Harmony 19.4%, 23 seats (-1)
KPV LV 14.3%, 16 seats (new)
New Conservative Party 13.6%, 16 seats (new)
PAR 12%, 13 seats (new)
National Alliance 11%, 13 seats (-4)
ZZS/Greens and Farmers 9.9%, 11 seats (-10)
New Unity 6.7%, 8 seats (-15)
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bigic
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2018, 09:03:29 am »

No government without Harmony, KPV LV or NA possible Sad
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DavidB.
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2018, 09:50:25 am »

Because of the fact that KPV LV is now equal with the New Conservatives in terms of seats (and was always bigger in terms of PV), Kaimins would now have the most legitimate claim to the position of Prime Minister in any coalition not including Harmony. And Harmony isn't going to be in the coalition.

Would place my bets on KPV LV and the New Cons and then some combination of NA, ZZS and New Unity with a majority - PAR seems less likely given the profile of KPV LV and the New Cons, but could also be included instead of any of these others, who really knows.
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2018, 09:55:15 am »

I doubt that Latvian parties would like to have coalition with KPV LV which had some allegations about financing from Russia and ties with Moscow.
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Diouf
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2018, 10:11:11 am »

LSM thinks a broad centre-right coalition is the most likely, and focus quite a lot on the role of the President:

Quote
Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis will face a tricky decision in the near future when he will have to nominate a potential Prime Minister to attempt to form a new government coalition.

Though the self-styled social democrat Harmony party topped the poll this time around with 20% of the vote, it is unlikely Vējonis will choose Prime Ministerial candidate Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis as his nominee. Harmony, which draws much of its support from Latvia's large Russian minority, has topped the poll in the past but has never been in government as "Latvian" parties have tended to band together to form a large enough bloc to prevent Harmony having any chance of a workable parliamentary majority.

It is even less likely Vējonis will choose Aldis Gobzems of the new and overtly populist KPV LV party, which finished in second place with 14%, as Vējonis said before the vote he would be looking for a nominee willing to carry on with the general direction of the outgoing administration in several key areas rather than introduce the radical changes that were part of KPV LV's election program.

Behind that pair of parties is a clutch of right-of-center parties with 10% to 13% of the vote and the formerly powerful New Unity party now trailing with just over 6% of the vote. That makes a four or five party right of center alliance perhaps the most likely bet to replace the current three-party coalition.

Though regarded a a safe pair of hands, it might prove difficult to nominate outgoing Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis again if it is confirmed that his Greens and Farmers Union party saw a significant fall in support and it finished in sixth place.

Former Foreign Minister and Defense Minister Artis Pabriks is likely to be a front runner for the nomination. He is the PM candidate for the new For Development/For! alliance, which finished in fourth place.

Third placed Janis Bordans of the New Conservative Party, a former Justice Minister, is another possibility, though his antipathy for his former party, the National Alliance, may prove a sticking point. Similarly, the National Alliance's candidate, MEP Roberts Zīle is generally regarded as a capable politician but the bad blood between the National Alliance and the New Conservatives might stymie his chances too.

Another possibility - though a very small one - would be the nomination of a non-partisan candidate to try and bring parties together, though sucha  controversial move would only be likely after protracted negotiations had proven fruitless. Where such a unifying force might be found would perhaps be no easier for Vējonis than the other alternatives in front of him.

Vējonis indicated via Twitter October 7 that he would start consultations with political parties in two weeks' time. Usually the parties will have talked among themselves in a more informal manner before that so that he has some idea of the likely alliances and antagonisms of any coalition model.

He also repeated his earlier pledge that the new government would have to "not change the current course of foreign policy and continue to strengthen national security" and be in favor of a balanced budget and continuation of key reforms.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/features/commentary/latvian-election-results-pose-problem-for-president.a295064/
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Diouf
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« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2018, 06:25:41 am »

New Latvian Saeima will be slightly younger, much more female. The number of Women MPs rise from 19 to 31 in the 100-MP Saema. The average lowers from 49.1 to 47.3 years.

There are talks of a government with New Conservatives, KPV LV, For Development/For!, The National Alliance and New Unity. "The potential next prime minister, Janis Bordans of the New Conservative party (JKP) who has been taking the leading role in negotiations thus far, on Friday afternoon presented his vision of a coalition of five political forces, including a suggested division of ministerial portfolios. In his press conference Bordans emphasized that the proposed model of the five-party coalition will not be extended to include ZZS."We see that there is a unique opportunity to form a government without Harmony and the Greens and Farmers Union," Bordans said.""

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/five-party-coalition-being-discussed-with-zzs-out-in-the-cold.a295807/
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bigic
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« Reply #34 on: November 14, 2018, 12:56:29 pm »

A KPV-JKP-A/Par-NA-JV coalition is not possible - A/Par, NA and JV pulled out of coalition talks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/three-latvian-parties-end-coalition-talks-in-blow-to-pm-s-effort
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Diouf
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« Reply #35 on: December 06, 2018, 08:33:56 am »

Gobzems demands Saturday decision from New Conservatives

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Prime Ministerial nominee Aldis Gobzems on December 6 gave a deadline to the New Conservative Party (JKP) to decide whether or not to join his proposed coalition government. Speaking on LTV's Morning Panorama show, Gobzems said JKP have until Saturday evening to say yes or no to his plan, which forsees a five-party coalition comprising his own KPV LV party, JKP, the National Alliance, New Unity and the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS).

From their formation, through the election campaign and into coalition talks, the New Conservatives have continually insisted they will not work with ZZS, which they regard as an oligarch-controlled party with serious corruption issues. For them to do a U-turn and enter government alongside ZZS would risk them losing a huge amount of credibility with their supporters, many of whom turned to the new party because of its tough anti-corruption stance and specifically anti-ZZS stance.

As recently as December 5, JKP leader Jānis Bordāns said his party had not changed its mind. He confirmed as much on December 6 by issuing a call on Facebook to form a four-party government without ZZS and saying it would still have a majority in the new parliament with 53 seats. Bordāns went as far as to say that it would gladly cede the two ministerial positions offered to ZZS in the new government.

"The government is ready, everything is laid on a plate. It's laid out for the New Conservative Party. They are offered four ministerial portfolios where they can implement their ideas," Gobzems said. "Is the JKP afraid to take responsibility?" asked Gobzems, in what looks like another act of brinkmanship by the man who has taken to describing the highly fractured political situation as if voters had given him an overwhelming mandate. In fact KPV LV controls 16 seats in the 100-seat Saeima."The government can only be torpedoed by the JKP. I would like to ask the JKP to think and contemplate whether torpedoing is a right and a stately step by 8 p.m. on Saturday evening," Gobzems said.

If JKP fails to climb on board with ZZS in the new coalition model, it seems likely President Raimonds Vējonis will turn to a third prime ministerial candidate, two months after parliamentary elections divided Saeima between seven different parties.

However, Gobzems' gambit did not appear to have worked with JKP leader Jānis Bordans responding on social media by saying his party was ready for four-party talks excluding the "unacceptable" ZZS, and that he was confident KPV LV would support this position. Therefore it would now seem it is Gobzems' turn to do a U-turn and offer a four-party coalition instead of a five-party coalition - or see his dream of becoming prime minister put to the sword.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/gobzems-demands-saturday-decision-from-new-conservatives.a302009/
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bigic
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« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2018, 09:39:05 am »

The government formation process is still a mess, as far as I can see.
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Diouf
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« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2018, 05:07:40 am »

The government formation process is still a mess, as far as I can see.

Yes, the President says Gobzems has exhausted his attempt to become PM. He will talk with the parties again, and find agreement on who could be the next candidate. Gobzems said he believed the country was heading towards new elections
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bigic
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« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2018, 11:19:20 am »

Is a solution that includes Harmony in some way likely? Never say never...
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Diouf
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« Reply #39 on: December 17, 2018, 04:00:23 pm »

We might bizarrely end up with a government led by New Unity, the smallest party in parliament and one that got completely destroyed in the election. However, the other centre-right parties in the governing parties and their leaders have strong personal and political grudges against each other, and others seem to have very few political competences. So by process of exclusion, we are now left with New Unity's Krišjānis Kariņš, a MEP. He hopes to form a five-party government with Development/For!, JKP, KPV LV and National Alliance. He proposes that New Unity has the PM, Finance Minister and Foreign Minister post while the remaining parties share all the other posts.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/new-unity-proposes-five-party-latvian-government.a303295/
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Diouf
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« Reply #40 on: January 23, 2019, 09:25:10 am »

Latvia gets a new government led by Krišjānis Kariņš

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Nearly four months after parliamentary elections held on October 6, 2018, the Latvian parliament or Saeima on January 23 finally approved a new government. The five-party coalition will be headed by Latvian-American dual citizen Krišjānis Kariņš, until recently a Member of the European Parliament (MEP), and will consist of his own New Unity party plus the New Conservatives, the Development/For! alliance, the National Alliance plus most of the KPV LV party. Though the parties in some cases make uneasy bedfellows, broadly speaking the coalition might be characterized as center-right in character.

61 Saeima deputies voted in favor of the government and 39 voted against. Speaking to Saeima ahead of the vote, Kariņš said his number one priority would be to complete the clean-up of Latvia's financial sector as failure to do so would be "a threat to the whole of society." He also noted Russian aggression in Eastern Ukraine and elsewhere as an external threat and promised Latvia would "continue its Euro-Atlantic course" under his watch.

"That will not change," he said.

In response, Harmony's Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis said the government would "split society" and listed pre-election promises from all of the parties involved in the coalition that are notable by their absence in the government's proposed legislative program.

Dombrovskis also pointed out the fact that Kariņš himself had not stood in the Saeima elections and that he represented the smallest party in Saeima. 

Prime Minister – Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš (New Unity)
Defense Minister/deputy PM – Artis Pabriks (Development/For!)
Justice Minister/deputy PM – Jānis Bordāns (New Conservatives)
Foreign Minister – Edgars Rinkēvičs (New Unity)
Economics Minister – Ralfs Nemiro (KPV LV)
Finance Minister – Jānis Reirs (New Unity)
Interior Minister – Sandis Ģirģens (KPV LV)
Education and Science Minister – Ilga Šuplinska (New Conservatives)
Culture Minister – Dace Melbārde (National Alliance)
Welfare Minister – Ramona Petraviča (KPV LV)
Environment and Regional Development Minister – Juris Pūce (Development/For!)
Transport Minister – Tālis Linkaits (New Conservatives)
Health Minister – Ilze Viņķele (Development/For!)
Agriculture Minister – Kaspars Gerhards (National Alliance)

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/politics/latvia-gets-a-new-government-led-by-krisjanis-karins.a306967/
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #41 on: January 23, 2019, 12:47:22 pm »

Can't see KPV LV lasting for very long based on that but we'll see - that is the perfect example of a party that historically lasts for all of one term before fragmenting.  Other than that an entirely typical Latvian government: led by a person who didn't stand in the election and by the smallest party in the Parliament and designed to exclude Harmony from government.
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