Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Diouf]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

Even if the Sweden Democrats were to be a part of a government, I am certain they would not lead it, not matter whether they are the largest party or not.

[DavidB.]

If SD really get close to 30%, a minority government of M supported from the outside by SD (and L) seems difficult to avoid unless they really want to give the finger to all these SD voters. But it's probably going to be somewhere in 20-25% territory.

[Aboa]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible?

No, not really

[DavidB.]

YouGov poll for June

Which parties other than AfS are below the threshold under "Other" and will get more than a non-negligible share of the vote? If there are none, AfS could be close to 3% in this poll.

[Former President tack50]

Maybe the Pirates are still around?

Looking at the 2014 election, only the Pirates (0.43%) and a tiny party called "Unity" (0.1%) got above 0.1%. I guess all the random tiny parties might add up to an additional 0.5%.

So assuming they all stay at their 2014 levels AfS should be polling at 2.4%

Honestly, if pollsters are polling the Feminist party, there's no reason to poll AfS, which is probably around the same level as them

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I believe there's some kind of Islamic party that could get a decent 1% of the vote from diehards. There's also an animal rights party, and that sort of single issue party often gets a surprising amount of votes (from people who are like "I don't like politics much and politicians are all crooks, but animals are cute I guess").

[FredLindq]

https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".

[DavidB.]

https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".

What is the difference between this party and the Liberals (or the Moderates, for that matter)?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

[Lord Halifax]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

[The Lord Marbury]

In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not a smart issue to talk about right before an election. That said, I don't think it was antisemitic. I followed the controversy, and his argument was that Sweden (essentially like Russia) is a multicultural society that comprises multiple peoples: the Swedish nation, but also Jews and Sami. According to this line of reasoning Jews and Sami are equally Swedish in terms of citizenship but are distinct peoples with a right to their own culture and heritage, together making up Sweden. Not recognizing this would essentially force these minorities into the Swedish mold.

One can agree or disagree with this. I am on the fence, and I understand why many Jews would dislike the perception of their Swedishness being questioned. I certainly would feel awkward if the Dutch right started talking about this subject. However, I don't think it is antisemitic, as I think Söder meant to say what I outlined in the above paragraph.

Of course you can decide what you feel is anti-semitic and what isn't, though Willy Silberstein (President of the Swedish Committee Against Anti-Semitism, 2009-2017) certainly didn't feel the same.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/debatt/a/21edj4/jo-bjorn-soder--jag-ar-bade-jude-och-svensk

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's also worth to note that Söder extended the same sentiment towards Tornedalians, which resulted in the Minister for Rural Affairs Sven-Erik Bucht (a Tornedalian) angrily calling out Söder's statement as "ing bullsh**t" (rough translation), and saying that he saw no problem at all with being both Swedish and Tornedalian. Söder once again doubled down on his original statement when responding to Bucht's comments.

This whole talk about "nations" seems to boil down to nothing more than ethnicity as a defining factor; those who Söder see as a part of the Swedish nation are those who are ethnically Swedish but what meaning does that actually have, perhaps beyond genetic markers which would purely be of scientific interest? If he just defines a Swede as someone who can be considered to be ethnically Swedish, thus meaning that no person with a background which isn't 100% ethnically Swedish could ever be considered Swedish, that's pretty much the textbook definition of racism.

Also, given that the Torne Valley has been a part of Sweden for at the very least 200 years longer than Scania (which Söder comes from), one could argue that any random Tornedalian is far more closer to being Swedish than Björn Söder could ever hope to be, going by his own logic.

[The Lord Marbury]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

In both the 2010 and 2014 elections the Sweden Democrats saw their largest increases in support in municipalities which had the largest unemployment figures, there were no real connection seen between a large number of immigrants/refugees and increased support for SD, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

That being said, in the north the Social Democratic and union organisations are generally stronger compared to the rest of the country, and class based/tribal voting is still far stronger than down south so I expect S to hold their ground up there, at least in this election. If anything, they should be real worried about losing votes to the Left Party instead, especially in places like Västernorrland where cuts to health care and hospitals by S-led county administrations have had a harsh impact.

So harsh in fact that Stefan Löfven was placed at the top of the Social Democratic list for the Riksdag in Västernorrland because the local party fears a total hammering due to cuts to maternity care at Sollefteå hospital.

SD also suffers up north because they still have so few competent local politicians that have managed to make a name for themselves, and they've also suffered from several defections during the term, as well as "empy chairs", where they've won seats on municipal councils but have been unable to fill them. One such example is from my own home town where they won two seats on the municipal council but both were left vacant from the start. Partly because they only had one (1) candidate on the ballot, and party because he was a resident of another municipality and thus couldn't take his seat. Eventually they managed to fill the seat for a few months or so, until the person they brought in just gave up and left. There are also numerous examples of local SD organisations failing to even present a budget proposal, which is one of the most basic duties that a party in the municipal council has. In the cases they do you end up with situations like in Luleå where the local SD chapter just straight up copied the budget proposal from the Sweden Democrats in Lund. That certainly caused a lot of confusion and laughs among the other parties, as you suddenly had SD council members of a northern town proposing significant investments in rural Scania.

[DavidB.]

Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

[Lord Halifax]

If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

In both the 2010 and 2014 elections the Sweden Democrats saw their largest increases in support in municipalities which had the largest unemployment figures, there were no real connection seen between a large number of immigrants/refugees and increased support for SD, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

I assumed it would be different this time because it's the first election after the 2015 migrant crisis and the growth in SD's support is primarily a result of how that influenced Sweden .

[FredLindq]

MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.

[DavidB.]

MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.

They have way fewer likes on Facebook than AfS (11k vs. 23k). Perhaps not a good metric to measure actual support (and I imagine quite some foreigners -- like me -- have liked their page, which will not be the case for MED), but it's almost solely Swedes liking and replying to their posts. It does seem as if there is some momentum here, and I think they might be doing better in the polls than MED too. Though SD's high polling numbers probably hurt AfS.

[The Lord Marbury]

Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

From my point of view this whole talk about Swedishness just seems like a waste of time. Instead of getting bogged down in vague cultural matters which would be incredibly difficult to legislate I just prefer this simple definition:

1) Do you have a Swedish citizenship?
-If yes:
2) Do you feel Swedish?
-If yes:
Then you are Swedish.

[Aboa]

Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

From my point of view this whole talk about Swedishness just seems like a waste of time. Instead of getting bogged down in vague cultural matters which would be incredibly difficult to legislate I just prefer this simple definition:

1) Do you have a Swedish citizenship?
-If yes:
2) Do you feel Swedish?
-If yes:
Then you are Swedish.

So for example this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_Olof_Freudenthal wouldn't be Swedish by your definition.

[The Lord Marbury]

Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.

[DavidB.]

I don't think this was a debate on legislation (which is also one of the reasons why it was unwise for Söder to speak out about it).

[Aboa]

Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.

Freudenthal didn't identify as Finland-Swede, in fact much of his work was aimed at proving that Finland's Swedes weren't Finns (in ethnic sense) but part of Swedish nation.

To me it seems absurd to mix ethnicity with legal concept of citizenship and to deny someones ethnic identity just because they don't hold certain citizenship.

[catographer]

The Jewish/Sami issue makes an interesting point: whether you need to be ethnically identical to the majority to be Swedish. Should Swedish identity allow for subcultures within broader Swedish culture? The US's model would probably be one country/overall mainstream culture overlaying a mosaic of smaller subcultures and ethnic identites, all under the American umbrella. Another model, like France, would be all people regardless of ethnicity or background being (forced or otherwise) one national cultural identity, with little variation.

[Tender Branson]

Red-Green government approval rating:

15% approve
66% disapprove

Top-5 campaign issues for voters:

52% Healthcare
49% Immigration/refugee policy
32% crime
26% integration
25% schools/university/education

Voting intention by gender:

Men

36.4% Sweden Democrats
19.0% Social Democrats
15.7% Moderate Party
  7.8% Left Party
  4.7% Center Party

Women

25.2% Social Democrats
19.8% Sweden Democrats
19.0% Moderate Party
11.0% Left Party
  9.7% Center Party

[JonHawk]

I know the election is roughly 2 months away... but i still think SD will end up between 20-25%... its whether or not they are the largest or second largest

[Tender Branson]

I know the election is roughly 2 months away... but i still think SD will end up between 20-25%... its whether or not they are the largest or second largest

I think there's a good enough chance they will slightly win the election, with some 25%.

The Social Democrats slightly behind at 24% or something and the Moderates down a bit more.