Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74083 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2018, 11:56:53 AM »

Ha, I meant to put this on IP; but I guess it can be used for the actual election.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure the S led faction will win (Nordics often break towards their government, and they're not polling that badly). The big thing will be whether MP (and KD?) get back in.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #26 on: March 06, 2018, 11:58:06 AM »

Rooting hard for the Social Democrats.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #27 on: March 06, 2018, 11:59:58 AM »

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lilTommy
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« Reply #28 on: March 06, 2018, 01:19:15 PM »

I think this can be the official thread to the Swedish elections. Therefore, here's the average of the polls: (from Wikipedia)

[color=]26.8red% S[/color]
22.6% M
17.8% SD
  9.9% C
  8.2% V
  4.7% L (FP)
  3.8% MP
  3.0% KD
  3.2% Fi/Othersr[/colo]

40.1% Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
38.8% S+V+MP

2014 results:


Change since the 2014 election:

26.8% S - 31%, -4.2
22.6% M - 23.3%, -0.7
17.8% SD - 12.9%, +4.9
  9.9% C - 6.1%, +3.8
  8.2% V - 5.7%, +2.5
  4.7% L (FP) - 5.4%, -0.7
  3.8% MP - 6.9%, -3.1
  3.0% KD - 4.6%, -1.6
  3.2% Fi/Othersr - 2.72%, +0.48

Biggest losses from current S/MP governing parties, gains for SD, C and V. Interesting that M is not really capitalizing here, rather its C and SD; while some left/progressive voters are migrating to V.
Take a look at the Feb 16-18 Poll:

22.4% S
20.5% M
22.1% SD
  9.3% C
  10.0% V
  4.7% L (FP)
  3.4% MP
  2.6% KD
  4.9% Fi/Othersr  
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2018, 01:36:12 PM »

are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2018, 01:51:58 PM »

Go SD.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2018, 02:38:32 PM »

Yes go Social Democrats!
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2018, 02:44:23 PM »

You all know how I am about political Moderates Tongue

LET'S GO MODERATES
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2018, 02:55:52 PM »

I am for the other SD Smiley
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lilTommy
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« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2018, 03:12:41 PM »

are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?

by the looks of the polling, MP (greens) are going to fall out first...

since everyone's doing it Tongue  i'm cheering V! V! V!
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Diouf
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« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2018, 03:21:50 PM »

The court case in the link has dominated coverage in the last week. Two of the three jury members decided not to sentence  a muslim man for spousal violence because he 'comes from a better family than her' and because she was deemed untrustworthy due to going to the police instead of trying to solve the case with his family. The judge and the third jury members wanted him to be sentenced, but with a 2-2 result, there is no conviction.
Both jury members had a immigration background and were appointed by the Centre Party as active members in local politics. One of the two has clearly stated that she thinks Swedish law should allow for Sharia Law rulings. After the intense media attention, both persons have been thrown out of the party, but it is a very poor look for the Centre Party.


 https://www.thelocal.se/20180305/controversial-assault-ruling-sparks-debate-in-sweden-thelocal
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Sestak
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« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2018, 03:28:44 PM »

How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?
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mvd10
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« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2018, 03:34:36 PM »

How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?

In 2014 the mainstream parties (Alliance + S bloc) signed an agreement which would let the leader of the largest bloc be PM while the other bloc abstains on budgets and other important stuff. Does that agreement still stand?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2018, 03:44:38 PM »


This though the Swedish Social Democrats are probably one of ny least favourites in Europe. Still better than everyone else though

Also, what are the policies of the Sweden Democrats other than "f*** the EU" and "deport inmigrants"? Are they economically left or right?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2018, 04:10:11 PM »

I know, I was being cute Wink
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Mazda
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« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2018, 04:44:22 PM »

are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?

by the looks of the polling, MP (greens) are going to fall out first...

since everyone's doing it Tongue  i'm cheering V! V! V!
It seems to be an article of faith that when it comes to crunch time, Feminist voters will vote tactically for the Greens to get them over the line.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #41 on: March 06, 2018, 09:37:08 PM »

The court case in the link has dominated coverage in the last week. Two of the three jury members decided not to sentence  a muslim man for spousal violence because he 'comes from a better family than her' and because she was deemed untrustworthy due to going to the police instead of trying to solve the case with his family. The judge and the third jury members wanted him to be sentenced, but with a 2-2 result, there is no conviction.
Both jury members had a immigration background and were appointed by the Centre Party as active members in local politics. One of the two has clearly stated that she thinks Swedish law should allow for Sharia Law rulings. After the intense media attention, both persons have been thrown out of the party, but it is a very poor look for the Centre Party.


 https://www.thelocal.se/20180305/controversial-assault-ruling-sparks-debate-in-sweden-thelocal
This is why the right makes fun of Sweden. In all seriousness though, it's disturbing and sad to watch the native population give their country away. When migrants can get away with crimes because of liberal judges and/or immigrant jurors but the people complaining about it risk arrest for hate speech, it just adds another level of absurdity.

I'd vote SD, but I doubt they could save Sweden even if they did win.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2018, 10:19:12 PM »

I'm so old that I remember when this particular board used to be a place to discuss psephology, not a place where people posted propaganda.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2018, 04:57:35 AM »

Sweden Democrats is the only good option here. Truly awful parties other than them.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2018, 06:50:12 AM »

1. No one risks being jailed for hate speech because they complain about immigration and crime. Lol.

2. L is close to the threshold but will likely stay in.

3. SD is not particularly interested in economic issues and are therefore a bit all over the place. I guess it sort of averages out to centrist.

4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

A separate thread for analyzing the election without inane cheerleading might be a good idea. Personally I'm pretty unenthusiastic with all our parties. Since I won't vote SD or V and I feel like the government ought to be punished for their actions I'll probably vote for a centre-right opposition party but I'm not sure which one yet.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2018, 02:41:49 PM »

I'm so old that I remember when this particular board used to be a place to discuss psephology, not a place where people posted propaganda.

It hasn't even been that long. I remember those days and I've only been around a few years.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #46 on: March 08, 2018, 08:07:50 AM »

4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

Enough to give SD enough concessions to gain their support, or would they just be banking on their support because they wouldn't want to bring the right bloc down? If the latter, and SD don't play ball, then their unwillingness to see the left bloc govern as a minority will likely be returned.

As for the poll: V
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Mike88
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« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2018, 08:24:07 AM »

More polls: (with some conflicting numbers)

Inizio poll from March:

26.4% S, 105 seats
24.5% M, 97
15.7% SD, 62
  8.8% C, 35
  6.9% V, 27
  5.9% KD, 23
  3.6% L, 0
  3.3% Mp, 0
  2.6% FI, 0
  2.3% Others

42.8% Alliance, 155 seats
36.6% Red-Green, 132

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March. Polled 2,324 voters. MoE of 2.0%

Demoskop poll from March:

27.2% S, 102 seats
21.8% M, 81
18.6% SD, 69
  8.5% V, 32
  7.9% C, 29
  5.1% L, 19
  4.6% Mp, 17
  3.3% KD, 0
  1.8% FI, 0
  1.2% Others

40.3% Red-Green, 151 seats
38.1% Alliance, 129

Poll conducted between 27 February and 7 March. Polled 1,620 voters. MoE of 2.4%
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KingSweden
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« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2018, 09:50:45 AM »

You all know how I am about political Moderates Tongue

LET'S GO MODERATES

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition. My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian
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windjammer
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« Reply #49 on: March 09, 2018, 09:52:17 AM »

Is a M-Kd minority government with SD support the likeliest scenario?

I don't know why but I have the feeling something like that is going to happen.
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