Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote (user search)
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote (search mode)
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74077 times)
The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2018, 01:46:16 PM »

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2018, 02:51:52 PM »

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?

SD and Jimmie Åkesson have said numerous time that they want to form a "conservative bloc" with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats and they voted in favour of an M-KD government just a few weeks ago. I don't think they'd participate in such a government even if asked (which they won't be) as they enjoy their outsider role quite a bit, but they'd be happy to support it in parliament. Right now it seems like their overarching strategy is to do everything possible to create further divides between M and KD on the one hand and C and L on the other, in order to create the conservative bloc they desire.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #27 on: December 17, 2018, 01:13:15 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2018, 04:36:12 PM by The Lord Marbury »

The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

But what would such a government look like and which parties would it get a majority with other than SD? I guess that a Kristersson government could say that it's not negotiating with SD and just adapt its budgets and legislation to such a degree that SD would be willing to vote for them, but that's just going to be plainly obvious after a while. And eventually SD are going to flex their muscles to show their power to their supporters by threating to vote for the Social Democratic budget unless they get concessions from Kristersson, so I don't think it'd be sustainable in the long run.

However Lööf always said that she'd never be part of a government dependent on SD during the election and said nothing about tolerating such a government, so I guess that's a loophole. However then you get to her refusal to support Kristersson in the Riksdag a few weeks back and the arguments she put forth then, which would be pretty difficult to backtrack from. How can you say no to a government with the argument that it would be dependent on the far-right one day and then say yes to it the next?

And then there's the issue of how the Centre Party's voters would feel about all this. Given that they framed this election as one about values and made SD their main opponents, would their voters buy C abstaining in a vote for a government that would be dependent on SD in every budget vote? It's quite possible that those voters would be infuriated with any move which gives SD more influence and would subsequently ditch the Centre Party, in spite of Lööf giving herself a loophole in her rhetoric during the election. It's a pure guess, but I think that some of their voters are much less right-wing than their membership and leadership and place a higher priority on keeping SD out of power rather than gutting the Employment Protection Act or implementing major tax cuts. I'm sure that the Centre Party is using it's big coffers to poll these issues, but I don't think there's a simple answer out there that won't result in accusations of betrayal from any flank of the party.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #28 on: January 11, 2019, 06:07:35 AM »

Looks like Centre and the Liberals are now supporting Löfven.

Nothing has been settled yet but it looks like it could be heading in that direction. Aftonbladet reported a few hours ago that S, C, L and MP have reached an agreement where the Social Democrats have gone further in compromises with the Centre Party over employment and housing policy than in the failed attempt from December. The Greens will get back the air travel tax which was scrapped when the M-KD budget won the vote last month, while the Liberals will presumably get the same tax cut for high earners that was in the agreement from December, along with a plan for how the school system can be nationalized. All parties except for S are also in favour of reintroducing family reunification for refugees, though the Greens have been the driving force, and that also seems to be part of the agreement.

The Centre Party's advisory board will have final say for their party and will make their decision tomorrow, though the parliamentary group is meeting today and could announce what decision they will recommend the board to take as early as this afternoon. The Liberals will make their decision on Sunday through their party council, which will be broadcast live on SVT 2 starting at 12.00 CET.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2019, 07:54:44 AM »

Note that Sjöstedt said that he didn't require anything in writing or it was changes to the agreement with the C, L and MP which he prioritized. It rather sounds like he'd settle for a handshake and gentleman's agreement with Löfven where the Social Democrats promise continue to working with V on issues outside of the four-party agreement and protect things that V got in the budget negotiations during the previous term in the forthcoming negotiations with C, L and MP.

Björklund also said in his press conference that it wouldn't a problem if S pushed for things in budget negotiations where Sjöstedt happened to be of the same opinion, and since a lot of if not all of the things V got during the past term are also things that S likes there could be a way out there. Maybe Löfven will give some assurances that S will protect and push for things like free medicine for children, free buss passes for youth during the summer holidays and tax deductions for union memberships in the budget negotiations.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2019, 04:57:35 AM »

Sjöstedt says that V will abstain in the vote on Friday and let Löfven form a government, with the threat that the party will put forward a vote of no confidence later in the term if the government presents proposals before parliament that would weaken the Employment Protection Act and liberalise rent control regulations for new flats.

I wonder how C and L will react to this since those two proposals were two of their biggest victories in the agreement with the Social Democrats.
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The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2019, 07:00:20 AM »

Löfven has just delivered his policy statement to the Riksdag and announced the members of his cabinet. The Greens have dropped from six to five ministers after the losses they suffered in the election, while the Social Democrats stay at 17, including the Prime Ministers. Six ministers are departing the government, three of whom were known before today. No big surprises with individuals without a lot of political experience like was the case with Alice Bah Kuhnke or Annika Strandhäll in 2014, pretty much all of the new names are experienced politicians to various degrees.

Ministers who retain their previous portfolios
Magdalena Andersson, 51 (S) - Minister for Finance
Peter Hultqvist, 60 (S) - Minister for Defence
Margot Wallström, 64 (S) - Minister for Foreign Affairs. Pretty much the same responsibilites that she had during the previous term, but she loses the Nordic cooperation issues to Ann Linde.
Tomas Eneroth, 52 (S) - Minister for Infrastructure. The same job he had before, but he moves from the Ministry of Enterprise to become head of a new Ministry of Infrastructure.
Morgan Johansson, 48 (S) - Minister for Justice and Migration. Briefly lost responsbility for migration policy to Heléne Fritzon following Anders Ygeman’s resignation in 2017 when he also became Minister for Home Affairs. Now he is responsible for the same areas as he was when first appointed in 2014.
Ann Linde, 57 (S) - Minister for Trade and Nordic Cooperation. Handled trade during the past term as well, but loses responsibility for EU affairs to Hans Dahlgren whilst gaining the Nordic cooperation issues from Margot Wallström.
Ardalan Shekarabi, 40 (S) - Minister for Public Administration. Keeps the public administration portfolio he had during the previous term but gets added responsibility for consumer affairs which have been on Per Bolund’s table for the last four years.

Ministers who get new portfolios
Mikael Damberg, 47 (S) - Minister for Home Affairs. Was Minister for Enterprise and Innovation during the previous term
Peter Eriksson, 60 (MP) - Minister for International Development. Was Minister for Housing and Digitalization during the previous term
Lena Hallengren, 45 (S) - Minister for Social Affairs. Was Minister for Children, the Elderly and Gender Equality towards the end of the last term after Åsa Regnér left the government in early 2018 to take up a UN position.
Annika Strandhäll, 43 (S) - Minister for Social Security. She returns to the job she had before 2017, when she was appointed Minister for Social Affairs after Gabriel Wikström’s resignation
Anna Ekström, 59 (S) - Minister for Education. Was Minister for Upper Secondary Schools and Adult Education during the previous term after being appointed in 2016 following Aida Hadzialic’s resignation.
Isabella Lövin, 55 (MP) - Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Environment and Climate Change. The co-leader of the Greens was Minister for International Development and Climate Change during the previous term.
Ibrahim Baylan, 46 (S) - Minister for Enterprise. Was Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy in the Prime Minister’s Office from 2016 and before that he was Minister for Energy in the Environment Ministry.
Per Bolund, 47 (MP) - Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Housing. Was also the deputy in the Finance Ministry during the last four years, but now gets to handle housing as well.

New ministers
Hans Dahlgren, 70 (S) - Minister for EU Affairs, was previously Stefan Löfven’s State Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office. One of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Social Democrats, having first started in the Foreign Ministry during the 1970s, later working directly under Social Democratic Prime Ministers Olof Palme, Ingvar Carlsson, Göran Persson and lastly Stefan Löfven.
Matilda Ernkrans, 45 (S) - Minister for Higher Education and Research, former Chair of the Riksdag’s Education Committee
Jennie Nilsson, 46 (S) - Minister for Rural Affairs. Former Deputy Chair of the Riksdag’s Enterprise Committee and Mayor of Hylte municipality in Halland before being elected to parliament.
Amanda Lind, 38 (MP) - Minister for Culture and Democracy. Former Party Secretary of the Greens and before that Deputy Mayor of Härnösand
Åsa Lindhagen, 38 (MP) - Minister for Gender Equality with added responsibilities for anti-discrimination and anti-segreation issues. Former MP and Deputy Mayor for Social Affairs in Stockholm from 2014 to 2018.
Anders Ygeman, 48 (S) - Minister for Energy and Digitalization. Former leader of the Social Democratic parliamentary group and before that Minister for Home Affairs under Löfven until his resignation under the threat of a vote of no confidence in 2017.

Leaving the government
Gustav Fridolin, 35 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Education, leaving politics and returning to teaching after the Greens elect a new co-leader in May.
Heléne Fritzon, 58 (S) - fmr. Minister for Migration, running for the European Parliament
Alice Bah Kuhnke, 47 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Culture and Democracy, running for the European Parliament
Sven-Erik Bucht, 64 (S) - fmr. Minister for Rural Affairs
Helene Hellmark Knutsson, 49 (S) - fmr. Minister for Higher Education and Research
Karolina Skog, 42 (MP) - fmr. Minister for the Environment
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