Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[mvd10]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

I love the inevitable small, densely populated blue spots in Stockholm though

[jaichind]

The count seems to be getting more favorable for S as time goes on on a relative to 2014 basis.

[BundouYMB]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

I was responding to the idea a 3.3% Red-Green lead is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation. That would be one of the most predictable results possible.

I wasn't saying Red-Green would definitely win.

[jaichind]

It seems more and more likely that the Center-Left bloc will emerge slightly bigger than the Center-Right bloc. 

[Oryxslayer]

As of right now:

Combined right is +0.8 on 2014, Combined left -3. Projecting to 2014 results gives us a margin of 0.4% between the two blocks. Which is why the race is to close to call.

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.

The central question seems to be whether the Greens make it in or not. The Center Party is strong enough to make the question of whether the other Alliance parties want to cooperate with the SDs or not moot (because any combination of the left-bloc plus Center gets you to the high 40s/a majority of the Riksdag even if the Greens don't make it), so it comes down to whether the Greens get in, and the left-bloc is almost certainly stronger than the Alliance, or they don't, and then the Alliance is stronger than the left-bloc.

The current distribution of areas in seems a little more favorable to the Greens than the country to my eyes, but I'm also not really familiar enough with Sweden to say for sure.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, this is definitely not the results the SD were hoping for

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

I was responding to the idea a 3.3% Red-Green lead is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation. That would be one of the most predictable results possible.

I wasn't saying Red-Green would definitely win.

3.3% Red-Green isn't necessarily super-predictable if Center/Liberals crashed or SDs did really, really well. But it seems pretty clear neither of those things have happened, so yeah, 3.3% Red-Green lead is a Lofven reelection. Even a 0.1% Red-Green lead is probably a Lofven reelection.

[jaichind]

FI seems to have crashed to 0.5% which gives an extra 2.5% pool of votes to augment the Center-Left bloc tally.

[Vosem]

Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol

[Diouf]

For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

[jaichind]

For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

But if the Center-Left bloc emerge larger, even slightly, I do not see a path to a Center-Right government given how certain Center-Right parties feel about working with SD.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Looking more like the TV4 exit poll was slightly more accurate than SVT.

[Vosem]

Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol

40.6 RG-40.0 Alliansen. Greens at 4.4. Narrowing pretty quickly.

[windjammer]

No way SD backs a minority govt?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any chance that the Liberals or Centre will break from the Alliance to prop up a SAP government?

[parochial boy]

So the commune I was born in is currently at 43% for M, furking terrific boys

Pretty solid result for the left block in Stockholm county as a wholethough, S ahead of M and the left block actually ahead of the right in Stockholm city - that's quite unusual

Actually, come to think about it - the left is progressing in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo - Global trends right?

[jaichind]

It seems the vote count is pretty consistent with a Center-Left bloc lead over the Center-Right bloc lead of around 0.5%.    I guess Löfven is back in.  But that just means the next election MP might fall below 4%.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

[MAINEiac4434]

Sweden Lolocrats

[Diouf]

For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

But if the Center-Left bloc emerge larger, even slightly, I do not see a path to a Center-Right government given how certain Center-Right parties feel about working with SD.

All paths are difficult with this scenario. Some of it will be a war of attrition between the two blocks; how long will they keep saying no to letting the other bloc govern. And for how long will they say straight no, and when will they open for maybe letting the others govern on some conditions. I think a significant part of the bookmaker's calculation is that SD is fairly certain to vote against all centre-left governments, while it is less certain how they will react to a centre-right government (also dependent on which kind of centre-right government, both in terms of parties and policies).

[Oryxslayer]

0.4% between the Blocks, 2 seats...

[Beezer]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Left is doing really well in Stockholm. Some of those neighborhoods are swinging more than 10 points to them.

[parochial boy]

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Kista/Rinkeby in Stockholm would be a good example. Rinkebysvängen N  is currently at 56% SAP and 17% V