Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[IceAgeComing]

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

Isn't that because of the way that the Exit Poll is done in the UK more than anything else?  I mean I don't know what the process is in other countries but from what I can gather they don't actually collect demographic information in the UK Exit Poll.

Again I'm not a Swedish expert: my rather hot take is that its going to be one of those elections where we sit waiting for the last votes to be counted before its crystal clear.  If we're working on the old rules of Swedish politics (the block that gets the most seats forms government with the other abstaining to keep the SDs out) then who knows at this point: the last count I saw had the two blocks tied although the Alliance were moving forward so they might just get an advantage.  If the option of cross-block governments becomes a thing then the Social Democrats have a clear advantage on forming one of those: the Alliance don't have anyone they can really peel off from the Red-Greens while there is at least a non-zero percent chance of a S-MP-L-C arrangement: although I think that its probably still very unlikely.  Its a bad result for the SDs and I don't see them getting into government at all - and if they do then its going to be as a clear Junior Partner and the history of far-right parties governing as junior coalition partners in right-wing governments isn't great for the electoral prospects of the far right party, at least in the short term.  I mean it'd also hurt the Moderates - it'd seriously strain their relationship with the Liberals and Centre Party and also probably wouldn't be overly popular with their own voters; so I suppose from a long-term accelerationist type view it'd kind of not be that bad for it to happen if you want a few Left governments with big majorities!

That's probably a load of unoriginal drivel; but at least its unoriginal drivel about Sweden which is better than yet another boring discussion about a certain American politician.

[Coffein00]

left bloc is ahead by 2 seats again
Center-Left     144
Allianse          142
S+MP+L+C    165
M+KD+SD        156

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think some people need to learn how to integrate into the norms of Atlas IE Board Society.

[parochial boy]

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

Isn't that because of the way that the Exit Poll is done in the UK more than anything else?  I mean I don't know what the process is in other countries but from what I can gather they don't actually collect demographic information in the UK Exit Poll.

Again I'm not a Swedish expert: my rather hot take is that its going to be one of those elections where we sit waiting for the last votes to be counted before its crystal clear.  If we're working on the old rules of Swedish politics (the block that gets the most seats forms government with the other abstaining to keep the SDs out) then who knows at this point: the last count I saw had the two blocks tied although the Alliance were moving forward so they might just get an advantage.  If the option of cross-block governments becomes a thing then the Social Democrats have a clear advantage on forming one of those: the Alliance don't have anyone they can really peel off from the Red-Greens while there is at least a non-zero percent chance of a S-MP-L-C arrangement: although I think that its probably still very unlikely.  Its a bad result for the SDs and I don't see them getting into government at all - and if they do then its going to be as a clear Junior Partner and the history of far-right parties governing as junior coalition partners in right-wing governments isn't great for the electoral prospects of the far right party, at least in the short term.  I mean it'd also hurt the Moderates - it'd seriously strain their relationship with the Liberals and Centre Party and also probably wouldn't be overly popular with their own voters; so I suppose from a long-term accelerationist type view it'd kind of not be that bad for it to happen if you want a few Left governments with big majorities!

That's probably a load of unoriginal drivel; but at least its unoriginal drivel about Sweden which is better than yet another boring discussion about a certain American politician.

I don't see how there is any prospect of SD being in government at all at the moment - knowing what we know about L and C. And bearing that in mind, it might tend to suggest that the route to S staying in government is ever so slightly easier

I'm tempted to say it doesn't matter though, who ultimately winds up being nominally in charge - there will be so little room to manoeuvre for any government that I dare say that the government will resemble a grand coalition in practice if not in name.

(on current numbers, S + MP + C + L have a bear marjority of one)

[Diouf]

All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Looks like the online polls were garbage polls after all. All in all, a tolerable result for the Social Democrats. Further, the swing against M, with many voters moving towards C, indicates that hostility towards the SDs is important for many bourgeois voters. Not a bad night!

[Izzyeviel]

I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.

Ok.

I wonder what the child president of the US thinks of his boys only getting 17.6%?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).

I agree. Reminds me of the situation in Germany last year. A coalition of S, C, and M could get a clear majority, but it would force a lot of concessions on all sides and grant SD a perfect opportunity to claim the title of "the only real opposition."

[Coffein00]

Center-Left   144
Allianse   143
S+MP+L+C   166
M+KD+SD   155

[Antonio the Sixth]

I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.

Ok.

I wonder what the child president of the US thinks of his boys only getting 17.6%?

Dude, you messed with the wrong Welshman.

[seb_pard]

What is C profile? Can they work with S and MP (or even with V)? And most important, what would their voters think if they agree with the Red-green?

[Coffein00]

Center-Left   144
Allianse   142
S+MP+L+C   165
M+KD+SD   156

needed for majority   175   
votes needed w/ V abstaining   161

[Diouf]

The final result will only be in place on Wednesday. Here there will be a count of the last early votes; those that did not make it to the right polling place for today. So this can be votes from Swedes abroad, or those voting early somewhere far from their normal polling place. This shouldn't be many votes, but it can change a few decimals, which could be decisive in such a close election. There might also be recounts in some places.

[JonHawk]

Was hoping SD would get at least 20%... but happy theres at least a million voters in 2018 that support them in Sweden... they will only increase from here given the integration and crime problems Sweden will continue to have.

[Diouf]

Löfven says that he hopes the damaging bloc politics is now over; and that broad cooperation between the parties will now take place. But he adds that if the Allianse parties insist on bloc politics, it is of course logical that the biggest bloc should govern. It would be wholly illogical for the smallest bloc to govern.

So, like all Allianse leaders, a total repeat of what was said during the election campaign, and we aren't much closer to knowing what will happen.

[seb_pard]

I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

What is C profile? Can they work with S and MP (or even with V)? And most important, what would their voters think if they agree with the Red-green?

C is economically center right and very pro-immigration. It could work with S and MP, but absolutely not with V. I could see them staying out of government by quietly lending the support it needs just to spite SD though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The final result will only be in place on Wednesday. Here there will be a count of the last early votes; those that did not make it to the right polling place for today. So this can be votes from Swedes abroad, or those voting early somewhere far from their normal polling place. This shouldn't be many votes, but it can change a few decimals, which could be decisive in such a close election. There might also be recounts in some places.

How do these voters tend to lean?

[Vosem]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.

[Hifly]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.

It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

[MAINEiac4434]

I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

Thanks for bringing this up — the folk singer José González is the child of two of those refugees.

[Mike88]

So, it's still close, but here's the almost final numbers of the Swedish general election 2018:

Riksdag (Parliament):

28.4% S (-2.8 ), 101 seats (-12)
19.8% M (-3.5), 70 (-14)
17.6% SD (+4.7), 63 (+14)
  9.8% C (+2.5), 30 (+8 )
  7.9% V (+2.2), 28 (+7)
  6.4% KD (+1.8 ), 23 (+7)
  5.5% L (+0.1), 19 (n.c.)
  4.3% MP (-2.4), 15 (-10)
  0.4% FI (-2.6), 0 (n.c.)
  1.0% Others (+0.1)

40.6% Red-Green (-3.0), 144 (-15)
40.3% Alliance (+1.2), 142 (+1)

84.4% Turnout (+1.1)

Landsting (County councilis):
 
28.7% S
19.2% M
13.0% SD
  8.6% V
  8.4% C
  7.1% KD
  6.3% L
  4.1% MP
  0.6% FI
  4.0% Others

81.6% Turnout

Kommun (Municipalities):

27.6% S
20.0% M
12.8% SD
  9.7% C
  7.6% V
  6.8% L
  5.2% KD
  4.6% MP
  0.9% FI
  4.7% Others

82.0% Turnout

[mileslunn]

Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.

It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.

[Mopsus]

I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

That isn’t at all important to note.

[BundouYMB]

I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

That isn’t at all important to note.

"A country's history and culture don't matter and shouldn't be preserved" - Mopolis