Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[VPH]

A few questions about the results:

1. Why are the left-leaning parties so strong up north? What is the industry there?

2. What would you say the difference is between the bases of the Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Centre Party? I know the Centre Party is more rural.

3. What's up in Gottlands? They seem to have odd voting habits.

4. Why is SD so much stronger in the South of the country?

[Ethelberth]

3. What's up in Gottlands? They seem to have odd voting habits.

In Gotland farmers vote Centre and fishermen SAP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. Why are the left-leaning parties so strong up north? What is the industry there?

Extractive-based heavy industries, including mining and so on. For instance, the Kiruna Mine - the largest iron mine in the world - is in Norrbotten.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think A is very unlikely and B probably most likely. That's also what the betting markets were saying before the election.

Why in the world would SAP ever agree to B? What the hell would they gain from it? If the Alliance thinks they have SD's support, let them rule with SD's support, and we'll see how well that turns out for them.

[Tender Branson]

Even though S + M didn't bleed as much support as some polls suggested they would and the Greens barely stayed above 4% and in parliament, I would still say that Red-Green was sort of "voted out" yesterday.

It would be better if there's a change of government now with the Alliance parties + some backing of the SD on some issues.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?

[Aboa]

Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?

I doubt views of the modern Centre Party leadership reflects the views of average Swedish farmer all that closely.

[Diouf]

An election district in Västra Götaland sent in the wrong results to the Election Bureau. They send in the figures for the regional election instead of the national election. This mistake has now been corrected. This changes the seat figures as one seat goes from C to SD, so now the Red-Green lead has increased to two seats before the count of the last votes on Wednesday.

[windjammer]

I don't understand why the right doesn't want to make a minority government backed by SD happen. SD will just continue to grow if they remain in the opposition. It would be easier to deal with them by making them back the government.

[rob in cal]

   Does the exit poll show a breakdown by income and education level?  Also, what % of the Swedish electorate is from an immigrant background?

[warandwar]

Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?

I mean, historically, yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Gustaf]

Ok, lots to respond to here:

1. Personally, I ticket split across all elections but voted Liberal nationally in the end. Was very torn though and decided on election day.

2. Again, since the Alliance won't do December deals anymore the exact balance between the blocs will not matter. The media spin is also primarily that it's tied.

3. Because of a counting mistake, C lost a seat to SD so it is now unlikely the Alliance would Catch up to the Red-Green bloc.

4. People wonder why S would accept option B I outlined. Well, it might be the only way they can exert some influence. Of course, they might win the chicken race but I have a feeling their outside options are worse. They're about to respond to it in a few minutes and I expect them to say no now. The question is what ends up happening in a few weeks.

5. M+KD+SD can't happen because it doesn't have a majority and everyone else would vote against it. It would also split both M and KD.

6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

[eric82oslo]

6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.

[SInNYC]

The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?

[Oryxslayer]

Quick map of the leading block by Constituency, that I whipped up in 5 min. Arguably the more important map because S's strength as a party means that they will always be winning the majority of a first-party map. I got more local maps that I am gradually posting on my twitter below.

[DL]

Any news on the final election results? Wan't today the day that the last votes from abroad etc... were supposed to tallied and added in?

[Hydera]

The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?

https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/category/countries/s/sweden


If you go back and check older results, Skane has always voted to the right of the country even when the left bloc was more popular in the past. Plus the immigration issue with Malmo becoming heavily settled by immigrants was what made the exurbs turn to the SD.



Also if you look at Sweden in this map, the exurbs of Malmo have lower wealth than that of the Stockholm metro. The conservative bloc tends to do better in areas of Sweden with higher wealth.

[jaichind]

Any news on the final election results? Wan't today the day that the last votes from abroad etc... were supposed to tallied and added in?

it seems the first re-count flipped on seat from SD to C so we are back to 144-143 lead for Center-Left bloc.

[bigic]

Counting of the overseas votes has changed the seat distribution inside the two blocs. It's still 144 Red-Green vs. 143 Alliance, but the Greens gained a seat at the expense of S, and L gained a seat at the expense of KD.
valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html

[Tender Branson]

Hydera, here is a newer map:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[eric82oslo]

The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?

https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/category/countries/s/sweden


If you go back and check older results, Skane has always voted to the right of the country even when the left bloc was more popular in the past. Plus the immigration issue with Malmo becoming heavily settled by immigrants was what made the exurbs turn to the SD.



Also if you look at Sweden in this map, the exurbs of Malmo have lower wealth than that of the Stockholm metro. The conservative bloc tends to do better in areas of Sweden with higher wealth.

I already told ya, but who would care to listen to an idiot like me right?

[Ethelberth]

6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.

They have no  farmers in Stockholm (besides some nobility perhaps). Eastern Scania has also some non-conformist tendencies. Some of the old KD regions have turned to SD.

[eric82oslo]

6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.

They have no  farmers in Stockholm (besides some nobility perhaps). Eastern Scania has also some non-conformist tendencies. Some of the old KD regions have turned to SD.

Yeah, on Djurgården (which literally means The Animal Farm), a famous island in the Stockholm archipelago, there's at least one farm.