Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2019, 03:00:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Mr. Rogers' Bunkerhood)
| | |-+  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 36 Print
Poll
Question: ?
S (Social Democrats)   -43 (25.7%)
M (Moderate)   -18 (10.8%)
SD (Swedish Democrats)   -46 (27.5%)
C (Centre)   -9 (5.4%)
MP (Green)   -7 (4.2%)
V (Left)   -28 (16.8%)
L (Liberals)   -6 (3.6%)
KD (Christian Democrats)   -5 (3%)
FI (Feminist)   -1 (0.6%)
Other   -4 (2.4%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 167

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 50664 times)
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #725 on: September 26, 2018, 01:42:42 pm »

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.
Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,226
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #726 on: September 26, 2018, 02:12:43 pm »

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I think maybe we just skip the government part completely. Worked well enough for Belgium that one time. No government that can raise taxes, no government that can have weird IT-related scandals, no government that is dependent on either the radical left or the radical right. Sounds pretty good to me to be honest.

There is no legal time limit on how long the Speaker can wait before using his four tries to get a Prime Minister approved. Why not use the fourth and last try in the summer of 2222. Tongue
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,305
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: -1.74, S: 5.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #727 on: September 26, 2018, 02:29:44 pm »

A new election might very well not lead to any "punishment" and yield the exact same result.
Logged
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #728 on: September 26, 2018, 02:41:45 pm »

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I think maybe we just skip the government part completely. Worked well enough for Belgium that one time. No government that can raise taxes, no government that can have weird IT-related scandals, no government that is dependent on either the radical left or the radical right. Sounds pretty good to me to be honest.

There is no legal time limit on how long the Speaker can wait before using his four tries to get a Prime Minister approved. Why not use the fourth and last try in the summer of 2222. Tongue

It's a good argument. If the Allianse or M-KD cared enough about changing policies, they would deal with the SD. But they don't want to. So maybe there is no majority for any change in policies, and that is fine.
Logged
bigic
Full Member
***
Posts: 138
Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #729 on: September 26, 2018, 04:07:54 pm »

Quote
If the Allianse or M-KD cared enough about changing policies, they would deal with the SD.
1. There is no M-KD-SD majority.
2. Policy changes that C and L want (they are necessary in such a hypothetical co-operation because of 1.)  mostly don't overlap with the policy changes that the SD want.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,275


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #730 on: September 27, 2018, 09:01:31 am »

I mean, in theory a new election could produce an Alliance plurality in which case they would just form a government I Think.

First round of speaker talks are happening today. No one seems to be budging yet.
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,215
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #731 on: September 27, 2018, 09:28:59 am »

I mean, in theory a new election could produce an Alliance plurality in which case they would just form a government I Think.

First round of speaker talks are happening today. No one seems to be budging yet.

Have there been any polls indicating which way the public might be leaning if there were another election?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,928
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #732 on: September 27, 2018, 09:39:57 am »

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I don't know. You can't let people vote and vote over again only because the result is not pleasent.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,653


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #733 on: September 27, 2018, 09:43:20 am »

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I don't know. You can't let people vote and vote over again only because the result is not pleasent.

Well when Spain did it, multiple elections just proved that very few voters change their mind shortly after an election. Issues have to change before voters can bring down the hammer.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,398
Denmark
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #734 on: September 27, 2018, 12:32:08 pm »

Doesn't seem like much movement in the first talks. Allianse parties still state their wish to form an Allianse government, which seems very unlikely considering the blank rejection from S and part of the Allianse's opposition to leaning on and negotiating with SD. Do we really need an Allianse government to be voted down in parliament before we can get past this stage?

Img


Img


Img


Img
Logged
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #735 on: September 27, 2018, 04:47:32 pm »

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,143
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #736 on: September 27, 2018, 05:10:15 pm »

Considering that the difference in seats between S-V-MP and M-C-L-KD is only of 1 seat, I wonder, could 1 or 2 people from S or MP simply defect from the party and abstain?

That way an Alliance government (with abstentions from SD and the 2 defectors) would be possible. It would also be incredibly controversial but still.

If not, I guess a new election will simply mean that the left will be demoralized and the Alliance will overtake the Red-Greens and/or the Greens drop out of parliament, and so an Alliance government will happen anyways.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,467
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #737 on: September 27, 2018, 05:40:10 pm »

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I assume S+M+one of the small parties is out of the question?
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,215
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #738 on: September 27, 2018, 05:57:14 pm »

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I assume S+M+one of the small parties is out of the question?

My understanding is that M is the most right-wing member of the Alliance, so this is not realistic. Even KD would be more likely to work with S. (Which does raise the question of whether S+C+L+KD is possible, but also seems far-fetched to me.)
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,398
Denmark
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #739 on: September 28, 2018, 03:38:00 am »

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I think, there are perhaps 3 government options possible.
A M-KD government that in some way convinces both SD and C/L not to vote against it.
A S-C-L-MP government that convinces V not to vote against it. Perhaps with Lööf as PM and Löfven resigning to make it palatable for the centre-right parties (which of course would make it more difficult for red-green parties to accept).
A S-M government.

But not sure whether they are more likely than new elections.
For the red-green parties, neither of the two last options give them the possibility to carry out left-wing economic policies, but if the Allianse no longer wants to let the red-greens govern without a majority, then this is hard to achieve anyway. The middle option would at least allow red-green parties to get their preferred policies on environment, immigration etc. Therefore it seems the best option for them, although will they make big sacrifices to lure C/L into this? S-M government really seems a last resort before new elections. And perhaps also an option that would require personnel changes in the top in at least one of the two parties, or perhaps Kristersson not sitting in the cabinet?
Logged
Gustaf
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,275


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #740 on: September 28, 2018, 06:41:54 am »

The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,653


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #741 on: September 28, 2018, 07:53:15 am »

Then there is the obvious option - M+C+L+KD with outside support from left, or S+MP+V with outside support from right. These are the simplest governments but they require a whole lot of brinkmanship until one side blinks, something I am not sure either player wants right now.
Logged
Lord Halifax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 572
Papua New Guinea


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #742 on: September 28, 2018, 08:45:49 am »

The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.

Not sure I understand that. I get that it would lead to continued liberal immigration policies, but wouldn't it collapse fairly quickly due to the vast ideological differences between the parties at the extreme ends while gradually creating a conservative opposition bloc made up of SD, M and KD? Splitting the Alliance into Conservatives and Liberals must be good for SD. Their long term goal is presumably a government based on an SD, M, KD majority.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,275


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #743 on: September 28, 2018, 09:21:58 am »

The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.

Not sure I understand that. I get that it would lead to continued liberal immigration policies, but wouldn't it collapse fairly quickly due to the vast ideological differences between the parties at the extreme ends while gradually creating a conservative opposition bloc made up of SD, M and KD? Splitting the Alliance into Conservatives and Liberals must be good for SD. Their long term goal is presumably a government based on an SD, M, KD majority.

Sure, maybe it'd be a longterm good but short term it would literally mean that that the people who switched from M to SD see that vote resulting in government with both C and MP in it. And it would mean zero influence for SD. I Think they don't want that.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,143
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #744 on: September 28, 2018, 10:26:28 am »

What about an "independent" consensus government? Kind of like Italy with Monti?
Logged
The Lord Marbury
EvilSpaceAlien
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 386
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -5.91

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #745 on: September 28, 2018, 10:54:44 am »

What about an "independent" consensus government? Kind of like Italy with Monti?

That would be extremely unlikely. Sweden has almost no history of such governments, the last time we had a government where the PM didn't belong to any party was from 1920 to 1921, before the first parliamentary election with universal suffrage for women had even been held. From the outset it was also clear that such an "independent" government would only remain in office for roughly year until the voting rights legislation for women had been implemented and a snap election would be held.

During that one year we actually had two governments led by independent, albeit right-leaning, PMs. The first PM was forced to resign after his government lost an important vote in the Riksdag, a situation which could definitely be replicated in this parliamentary term, and now there's four years until the next election and little appetite for a snap election from any side. In the end a government needs enough support in the Riksdag to at the very least pass a budget and preferably to pursue additional reforms, and I don't see how an "independent" Monti-style government would have any easier time with that than any of the other alternatives.

The only time I could actually see it possible that an independent PM takes office would be if Sweden were to end up in the midst of a crisis caused by war or a huge economic crash. But even if that were to happen I consider it far more likely that we'd just end up with a grand coalition instead.
Logged
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #746 on: September 28, 2018, 12:58:22 pm »

Yes, the problem in Sweden is not that people need to take a course of action but cannot agree on a government.
It's that nobody really wants to take a course of action enough to pay the price of government.
Maybe Löfven shadow government is not the worst outcome, then. For how long can this last?

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I think, there are perhaps 3 government options possible.
A M-KD government that in some way convinces both SD and C/L not to vote against it.
A S-C-L-MP government that convinces V not to vote against it. Perhaps with Lööf as PM and Löfven resigning to make it palatable for the centre-right parties (which of course would make it more difficult for red-green parties to accept).
A S-M government.

But not sure whether they are more likely than new elections.

So we are coming close to the most credible outcomes being:
1. New election;
2. Prime Minister Annie Lööf
Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,226
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #747 on: October 03, 2018, 03:42:31 pm »

As most readers of this thread (hopefully) knows, local elections were held at the same date as the parliamentary elections to the city councils of Sweden's 290 municipalities and local government formations is on-going everywhere.   

Today it was announced that the Sweden Democrats will get their first ever mayor in Sweden in the small town of Hörby in Skåne, were SD polled 35,3% in the election to city council. Whether this will start a trend remains to be seen.

Logged
bigic
Full Member
***
Posts: 138
Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #748 on: October 04, 2018, 01:33:18 am »

Norlen's first try is Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates.
https://www.thelocal.se/20181002/swedish-parliamentary-speaker-asks-centre-right-leader-to-form-government-ulf-kristersson-moderate
Logged
Ethelberth
Full Member
***
Posts: 133
Suriname


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #749 on: October 05, 2018, 05:28:31 am »


Today it was announced that the Sweden Democrats will get their first ever mayor in Sweden in the small town of Hörby in Skåne, were SD polled 35,3% in the election to city council. Whether this will start a trend remains to be seen.



What kind of places are Höör and Hörby?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 36 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines