Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[TheSaint250]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

While you're right, the thing is that the left certainly won't have anything close to a majority. So it's unclear what would happen. There has been speculation that C and/or L could join S. That'd be very controversial though and potentially a little suicidal for them. It also is unclear to what extent they want to work with V or MP (probably not very much).

Ok thanks!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

[Gustaf]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

It is precisely that. Though at the same time they're pushing an amnesty for Afghani refugees and allowing public prayer calls so I'm not sure their triangulation is going to be all that effective in the end.

[President Johnson]

Probably Social Democrats, maybe moderates.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

My Isidewith results say my vote for V in the poll was best for my values, according to it I side with...
V 67% of the time,
S 66% of the time,
M 44% of the time,
SD 30% of the time,
and Centre 29% of the time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

[Aboa]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

While SAP has in the past advocated banning religious schools I think the current proposal is to review all schools on a regular basis and to make harder to get license to run one not to ban them.

[DC Al Fine]

SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

The worst part of this veiled racist nonsense is that Jews (and to a lesser extent conservative Christians) get royally screwed. Want to run a normal Christian/Jewish school? Too bad! Want to butcher meat in a kosher manner? Whoops, that's too close to Halal

[DavidB.]

Apparently Jewish schools get to remain open under the SAP plan because they would be ethnic rather than religious, or so I heard.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think it's because most religious schools in Sweden are relatively new (a product of the charter movement), but the one Jewish school law is protected by the rules of sui generis.

Basically they're being effectively closed by a pincer. The government will close off public funding for them (as exists in some countries already) but there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

[parochial boy]

there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea

Totally in agreement there, although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.

That's why it would be a good thing though.

[Gustaf]

The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

Given that most Swedish political parties are unusually pragmatic - in different ways o/c - to such an extent that we can even label it an important part of Swedish political culture, the Greens are a great mystery.

[Gustaf]

The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

Given that most Swedish political parties are unusually pragmatic - in different ways o/c - to such an extent that we can even label it an important part of Swedish political culture, the Greens are a great mystery.

Haha, very true. If they and KD both miss the threshold I won't shed any tears.

[MAINEiac4434]

Brannon wants to visit SD to “learn from them”, but they don’t want him:

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/03/steve-bannon-reveals-plans-to-visit-sweden-to-learn-from-the-nations-far-right-party_partner/

Non-US posters: is Bannon viewed as particularly extreme even beyond Trump?

[DavidB.]

Non-US posters: is Bannon viewed as particularly extreme even beyond Trump?

I doubt many people know who he is. Those who do are probably likely to view him as the main alt-right "influential" within his (former) circle, so yes, they will probably view him as more extreme than Trump.

That said, having Bannon come over isn't bad in PR terms because he's Bannon (most people don't know him), it's bad because he's tied to Trump, who is very unpopular in Europe, even among many voters for radical right-wing parties.

[DavidB.]

Lots of talk about AfS in the right-wing internet sphere. Swedes, do you have the impression that they are taking off? Chances of them making it into parliament?

[MAINEiac4434]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

[DavidB.]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Lots of talk about AfS in the right-wing internet sphere. Swedes, do you have the impression that they are taking off? Chances of them making it into parliament?

I'd rate their chances as rather low. Right now they're sort of in the spot-light because of the defections but besides that they seem to be rather unknown among the general public. Gustav Kasselstrand has had a following among the alt-right for a long time but it doesn't seem to translate to the comman SD-voter. When Kasselstrand was expelled from the party there was hardly a dent in SD's poll numbers.

I also think people have sort of a hard time to differentiate what makes AfS different from SD. Back when Kasselstrand was still a member of SD his main beef with the leadership was that he didn't like their pro-Israel policies, that he thought the party lacked internal democracy, and that he wanted them to move right on economics (a subject he has made a 180 U-turn on since he now accuses SD of having become to close to the right...) So I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.

[MAINEiac4434]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.

I meant AvS might harm SD by taking away a chunk of the vote SD can’t make up with center-right coverts.

[DavidB.]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.

I meant AvS might harm SD by taking away a chunk of the vote SD can’t make up with center-right coverts.

Sure, but SD's actual percentage of the vote doesn't matter as much as its coalitionability. It might be better for SD to win 17% of the vote but to be perceived as the more moderate party than to win 23%, to still be called Nazis, and to be sidelined. Of course, should AfS really win so much that SD barely make any gains compared to 2014, this would be different, but this scenario does not seem too likely to me.

Thank you for your answer, SwedishCheese. How anti-Israel are AfS exactly? I suppose I could live with a "not our problem, don't engage with it" stance to the point where I could still vote for them over SD (who are better on this issue), but anything further than that (i.e. outspoken solidarity with "Palestine") would be a dealbreaker.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.

AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.