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Question: ?
S (Social Democrats)   -43 (25.7%)
M (Moderate)   -18 (10.8%)
SD (Swedish Democrats)   -46 (27.5%)
C (Centre)   -9 (5.4%)
MP (Green)   -7 (4.2%)
V (Left)   -28 (16.8%)
L (Liberals)   -6 (3.6%)
KD (Christian Democrats)   -5 (3%)
FI (Feminist)   -1 (0.6%)
Other   -4 (2.4%)
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Total Voters: 167

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 50706 times)
bigic
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« Reply #750 on: October 05, 2018, 05:45:57 am »

Horby is a small town in Scania (south of Sweden) - small town and rural Scania and Blekinge (also in southern Sweden) is where the Sweden Democrats are strongest.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #751 on: October 05, 2018, 05:54:47 am »

I know. These small towns of Scania are often somewhat  industrial or suburban-exurban. Höör-Hörby area used to be quite Centre-partyish, but not anymore. I just wanted to know whether there is some peculiarity that makes them more sensitive to SD.
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bigic
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« Reply #752 on: October 06, 2018, 06:58:12 am »

Support for all parties in Sweden remained relatively stable since the election, with a minor gain for the Social Democrats and a minor loss for the Moderates.

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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #753 on: October 06, 2018, 12:51:20 pm »

I know. These small towns of Scania are often somewhat  industrial or suburban-exurban. Höör-Hörby area used to be quite Centre-partyish, but not anymore. I just wanted to know whether there is some peculiarity that makes them more sensitive to SD.

The reason that SD pulled their best local election results there is most likely based on local issues. As you noted Hörby used to be a Centre stronghold due to being a strongly agricultural area. The town of Hörby itself has become an exurban commuter town to Malmö, Lund and Kristianstad due to good infrastructure to the three cities and low house prices.

The Moderates had a huge success in the 2006 and 2010 local elections which went to their head and the Moderate Mayor Lars Ahlkvist had a series of scandals, most famously having the municipality pay 600 000 SEK for a portrait of himself as a Roman soldier, and he was eventually forced out by his own party members a few months before the 2014 elections. The Moderates lost more than half of their voters and has been fighting internally since.

After their defeat the Social Democrats took over with a broad coalition containing most parties except the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats. That mayor, funnily enough named Susanne Meijer, managed to become even less popular. In the last few years there has been fights in central Hörby between different groups of immigrants which she handled very poorly by first denying that it was a problem at all, and once she did admit the problem she had a town hall meeting informing the citizens about what the local administration was doing to combat it but didn't allow any critical questions from the audience. During the four-year term most other parties, like the Centre Party, left due to internal disagreements and joined the opposition.

So both the two major parties having lost the public's trust in combination with immigration related problems is probably what allowed the municipality to have exceptional results for SD, even by Skåne standards
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 12:54:38 pm by Swedish Austerity Cheese »Logged
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« Reply #754 on: October 09, 2018, 02:20:19 pm »

Ulf Kristersson announced today that he gives up on the idea of an Allianse government backed by the Social Democrats, which has been obviously impossible from the start. He said he would now talk to the other Allianse parties to figure out the way forward. He ended with saying that his goal remained forming an Allianse government. This must just be an internal signal to the Allianse parties that he remains loyal to the idea of the Allianse, because it seems very hard to see how such a government should be formed. The Centre Party and Liberals will not sit in a government requiring votes from SD, and SD will not support a government with these two parties. Both the Liberals and Center seem to prefer to drag this government formation as far out as possible, perhaps as a way to make their potential cooperation with the Social Democrats go down easier ("we tried all other paths" etc.). The Liberal leader Jan Björklund even said that the Allianse should start talks with the Greens about support. This seems bizarre. Not only would that require a lot to convince the Greens, who have better options, but also because support from the Greens isn't enough to form a government, it would require an additional party.
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« Reply #755 on: October 09, 2018, 03:09:43 pm »

Ulf Kristersson announced today that he gives up on the idea of an Allianse government backed by the Social Democrats, which has been obviously impossible from the start. He said he would now talk to the other Allianse parties to figure out the way forward. He ended with saying that his goal remained forming an Allianse government. This must just be an internal signal to the Allianse parties that he remains loyal to the idea of the Allianse, because it seems very hard to see how such a government should be formed. The Centre Party and Liberals will not sit in a government requiring votes from SD, and SD will not support a government with these two parties. Both the Liberals and Center seem to prefer to drag this government formation as far out as possible, perhaps as a way to make their potential cooperation with the Social Democrats go down easier ("we tried all other paths" etc.). The Liberal leader Jan Björklund even said that the Allianse should start talks with the Greens about support. This seems bizarre. Not only would that require a lot to convince the Greens, who have better options, but also because support from the Greens isn't enough to form a government, it would require an additional party.

Another problem I see is that if C+L just back a S govt, it still lacks a majority. Such a govt would require either outside support from V - which means C+L have to bite a bullet, or M. If M is providing outside support, it begs the question of why not just reversing S and M's positions (Alliance govt-KD) won't work. Any govt that is comprised of M+C+L+S is going to be a moderate one.
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« Reply #756 on: October 12, 2018, 11:03:32 am »

Ulf Kristersson wrote today on his Facebook, that he has outlined two options for his Allianse colleagues, which they will discuss until Tuesday at latest.
The first option is to take an Allianse government to parliament, and see if it can survive a no-confidence vote. This will in all likelyhood be voted down. The only option would be if SD lays down it votes, which it has refused to do. And C & L has refused to govern based on support from SD. However, C & L might prefer this defeat to show that they have given the Allianse possibility all they had, so they can leave it with "a clear conscience".
The second option is what Kristersson calls the "3-2-1" model with 3, 2 or 1 Allianse parties in government. He states that such a government would follow Allianse economic reform policies fully, and cooperate closely with the remaining Allianse parties outside government. It would also seek agreements with other parties in parliament, but will keep V and SD out of influence. With the last addition, it seems unlikely that such a scenario would have a much bigger chance of SD laying down their votes for an "Allianse government in all but name". Åkesson has already commented on this proposal to Expressen:"It seems completely unreasonable that we should lay down our votes for a government that promises not to give us any influence while opening up for cooperation with S and MP. This will of course not happen." Åkesson then added a comment about the terrible decision by Kristersson and the national M leadership to allow Stockholm Moderates to form a coalition with the Greens. He fears that such a cooperation will be sought at the national level as well, which he calls "alarming"
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Diouf
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« Reply #757 on: October 13, 2018, 10:22:55 am »

The answer to Kristersson's post came already today.
First, the Liberal leader Jan Björklund held a press conference. He stated that the party still wants Kristersson to be PM and hopes that the Speaker would prolong his mandate as informateur (ends on Tuesday), but that he rejects Kristersson's two ideas which would require SD support/laying down votes. Instead Björklund proposes 3 solutions. A huge Allianse-Socialdemocrat government, a grand coalition with S and M supported by the rest of the Allianse, and an Allianse+Greens government. When asked whether the party could sit in a S-led government, he said he didn't intend to speculate on that question.
Shortly after, Center Party leader Annie Löof also held a press conference. She stated that Åkesson's rejection of Kristersson's proposals showed that they were already doomed, but added that the Centre Party wouldn't have agreed to it anyway. She stated her preference for Kristersson as PM in a government with broad support and therefore hoped the Speaker would grant him additional time, but didn't mention potential solutions. She didn't reject the idea of sitting in a S-led government, but stated that this required that all Allianse parties joined such a government.
While the press conferences were ongoing, Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt tweeted:"Four Allianseparties and a Funeral. We don't need another two weeks of this drama. The Speaker should give Stefan Löfven the chance to build a new government".
Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch Thor also held a press conference, which has just finished. She repeated a previous point that the party was so secure about its own values and policies, that it didn't care who voted for them. It will not negotitate with SD, but wouldn't mind governing on their support. She said that she could have easily imagined Kristersson leading a narrower centre-right government, and was dissappointed in C and L for rejecting this. She completely rejected the idea of joining a S-led government, and said an Socialdemocrat-Allianse government was completely out of the picture.
Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has announced that he is sad that C and L rejected his proposals. He will now meet the Speaker tomorrow to discuss the way forward.
A Green Party spokesperson praised C and L for rejecting cooperation with SD, and said she agreed that cross-bloc cooperation is necessary. But she firmly rejected supporting a Kristersson-led government. A similar message was made by the Social Democrats
Sweden Democratleader Åkesson rejoiced that the Allianse soon seems to be a done thing. This opens up the possibility of a conservative bloc in Sweden, which would be very good.
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The Saint
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« Reply #758 on: October 13, 2018, 11:24:03 am »

It seems as though a S + MP + C + L will end up being the only viable option unless the latter two decide to accept SD backing (which seems less likely than them abandoning The Alliance).
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bigic
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« Reply #759 on: October 13, 2018, 11:31:37 am »

Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.
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« Reply #760 on: October 13, 2018, 12:50:39 pm »

Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

I think the Left Party could very well do that. They haven't rejected this possibility, and with the Allianse no longer willing to be support parties for a red-green government, it is hard to see better options for the Left Party. It is difficult to see left-wing economic policies being enacted with the current parliamentary composition (unless the Left Party opens for cooperation with SD, haha), but a S-C-L-MP could at least ensure many migrants and significant measures on environment and climate. And if the result of the government's economic policies edge too close to the neoliberal dystopia propagated by C and L, the Left Party will still be independent enough to pick up a lot of S and MP voters.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #761 on: October 13, 2018, 01:12:16 pm »

Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

I think the Left Party could very well do that. They haven't rejected this possibility, and with the Allianse no longer willing to be support parties for a red-green government, it is hard to see better options for the Left Party. It is difficult to see left-wing economic policies being enacted with the current parliamentary composition (unless the Left Party opens for cooperation with SD, haha), but a S-C-L-MP could at least ensure many migrants and significant measures on environment and climate. And if the result of the government's economic policies edge too close to the neoliberal dystopia propagated by C and L, the Left Party will still be independent enough to pick up a lot of S and MP voters.

The problem with this I think is that it depends upon V, which would be a hard pill for C+L to swallow.
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« Reply #762 on: October 13, 2018, 01:26:32 pm »

The problem with this I think is that it depends upon V, which would be a hard pill for C+L to swallow.

This will certainly cause some issues, and opens the two parties for criticism from the conservative parties. However, a crucial difference is that in terms of budgets, the government would be able to get their budget through parliament unless V, M, SD and KD agree on an opposition budget which is unthinkable. This is the difference towards an Allianse government depending on SD, which would be dependent on SD votes to beat an opposition Red-Green budget. So for C and L, the problem will mainly be the confidence vote where they do have to rely on the Left Party; in other aspects the government would largely be able to govern without them if they prefer. The Left Party knows this, so they will probably try to set up different conditions for laying down their votes in the confidence vote because this is where their influence is. However, I think they will budge in the end. As described above, such a government still seems their best possibility and I think their current rhetoric reflects that.
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« Reply #763 on: October 14, 2018, 05:36:21 am »

Ulf Kristersson announced today that he has told the Speaker that he hasn't been able to find support for a government. The Speaker will have new talks with the other party leaders tomorrow and expects to appoint a new informateur. Kristersson's announcement is a rejection of the wishes from C and L, who wanted him to go on for more weeks and try to investigate a new set of impossible coalition possibilities. C and L might try to continue this farcical protraction process tomorrow by still asking for Kristersson to remain as informateur, but it is hard to see that the Speaker will not appoint Löfven as informateur.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #764 on: October 14, 2018, 11:40:02 am »

Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance Smiley
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« Reply #765 on: October 15, 2018, 09:35:18 am »

As expected, the Speaker appointed Stefan Löfven as the new informateur. For a start, he will get two weeks to investigate the potential for forming a government. The big question now is whether C and L will continue to draw out the proces or whether they are ready to engage already. Perhaps, they still think it is to soon to look accommodating towards the Social Democrats. They have made noises about S and M cooperation, the biggest responsibility at the two biggest parties etc. So it's quite possible that C and L would prefer a round of talks that focused on creating either a S-Allianse government (completely impossible) or a S-M government (probably the least likely of all the not impossible scenarios). Once such a round of talks has finished without any result, then perhaps we could start getting talks about the S-C-L-MP scenario. If Annie Löof is going hard for the PM post, that would make C even more likely to not engage seriously in this round of talks. Lööf can then hope she gets to lead the next round of negotiations after two Löfven failures. Then we have ourselves a game of chicken between Löof and Löfven. Will one of them give up the PM role (or be forced to by their party) or will we have a big crash(and new elections?)
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #766 on: October 15, 2018, 02:29:13 pm »

Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance Smiley

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

GENDER:

Women:

V - 11%
S - 29%
Mp - 5%

C - 11%
L - 5%
Kd - 7%
M - 17%

Sd - 14%


Men:

V - 7%
S - 23%
Mp - 3%

C - 8%
L - 6%
Kd - 7%
M - 19%

Sd - 24%

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« Reply #767 on: October 15, 2018, 02:39:19 pm »

Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance Smiley

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

AGE:

18-21 years:

V - 12%
S - 20%
Mp - 6%

C - 12%
L - 5%
Kd - 7%
M - 21%

Sd - 13%


22-30 years:

V - 13%
S - 23%
Mp - 5%

C - 11%
L - 4%
Kd - 7%
M - 20%

Sd - 14%


31-64 years:

V - 9%
S - 25%
Mp - 4%

C - 9%
L - 6%
Kd - 7%
M - 18%

Sd - 21%


65+ years:

V - 6%
S - 33%
Mp - 3%

C - 7%
L - 6%
Kd - 10%
M - 15%

Sd - 19%
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« Reply #768 on: October 15, 2018, 02:49:05 pm »

Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance Smiley

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

OCCUPATION:

Blue-collar workers:

V - 10%
S - 31%
Mp - 3%

C - 7%
L - 3%
Kd - 6%
M - 13%

Sd - 26%


White-collar workers:

V - 9%
S - 25%
Mp - 5%

C - 10%
L - 7%
Kd - 8%
M - 20%

Sd - 14%


Small-business owners and self-employed:

V - 6%
S - 12%
Mp - 3%

C - 12%
L - 5%
Kd - 9%
M - 26%

Sd - 25%

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JonHawk
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« Reply #769 on: October 15, 2018, 10:38:32 pm »

Wouldn't SD lose votes if there is another snap election? soft M to SD voters might swing to Moderates to give them a better chance of forming government. SD should just let the M-Alliance government happen and pick up the pieces in the next election.
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Diouf
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« Reply #770 on: October 16, 2018, 03:00:57 am »

Wouldn't SD lose votes if there is another snap election? soft M to SD voters might swing to Moderates to give them a better chance of forming government. SD should just let the M-Alliance government happen and pick up the pieces in the next election.

Well, it's quite hard to guess how the dynamics of a snap election will shape out, and who will be blamed for causing it. Perhaps soft M to SD voters already swung back to M at the most recent election, and are now disappointed that M keeps talking SD down and ruling out cooperation. I don't think there's any certain vote loss waiting for SD, and even if there were, I'm not sure it should mean that SD should allow a government which clearly states that it despises them and won't cooperate with them. Also there's the problem that C and L do not want a government on SD votes.
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« Reply #771 on: October 29, 2018, 12:54:03 pm »

Seems like the SAP gave up. Like no one is willing to collapse in the next election.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-politics/sweden-closer-to-snap-election-as-lofven-drops-bid-to-form-government-idUSKCN1N3132
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« Reply #772 on: October 29, 2018, 01:27:09 pm »

Does Lööf get to try now?
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Diouf
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« Reply #773 on: October 29, 2018, 04:25:47 pm »

The Speaker said today that he wouldn't appoint a new informateur. Instead he would take a more active role. He will chair meetings in what he seems as the four coalition possibilities. The Grand Coalition (will start with S +MP +Alliance, but could be scaled down to fewer parties), the S-C-L-MP option, the MP-Allianse option, and an Allianse government (start with all four parties, but could end up with fewer parties). His stated goal is to close a couple of doors, so the different parties won't keep bringing up options that are completely rejected. He hopes to cut down the options to one or two different cabinets. It is perhaps slightly weird not to include the possible support parties for these cabinets, since they will be crucial for whether a government can come to exist. However, when the intent is to cut down the options, it probably makes sense not to make it too complex yet.
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« Reply #774 on: November 02, 2018, 06:32:55 am »

The speaker will inform on his next move Monday morning. This will likely be his conclusions on the meetings in the four coalition possibilities. He could rule out some of them completely and/or pick one option which looks most likely. He could then appoint an informateur/formateur to further explore that possibility. He has previously announced that there will be a vote on at least one PM candidate in the fall (i.e. before the end of November). However, the Speaker would look bad with his PM candidate voted down, so he would likely prefer some additional time before progressing to a vote.

While the S-C-V-L-MP majority still seems the most likely majority behind a new government, it sounds like there is very little movement between S and C. Therefore, there is more and more talk about the possibility of a narrow C-L-MP government, accepted by S and V. This narrow government would only have 67 seats in the 349 parliament, and won only 18.51% of the votes in the election. The closest historic references are probably Ullsten's L-only (39 seats, 11.1%) government from 1978-1979, which was allowed to govern by S and C, and Fälldin's C-L (102 seats, 28.7%) cabinet from 1981 to 1982, which was allowed to govern by M.
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