Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[TheSaint250]

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

so it seems the election will hinge more on the smaller parties staying above the threshold more than the larger parties increasing or decreasing in size?

[Sestak]

so it seems the election will hinge more on the smaller parties staying above the threshold more than the larger parties increasing or decreasing in size?

Not that different from what we had last year in Norway, actually.

[KingSweden]

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

I’d probably swing between Liberals and Center. I was a big Reinfeldt fan but Moderates are tacking right to box out SD, who are godawful.

[TheSaint250]

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

I’d probably swing between Liberals and Center. I was a big Reinfeldt fan but Moderates are tacking right to box out SD, who are godawful.

Ah ok. Thanks!

[Helsinkian]

The support for the Feminist Initiative is on the perfect level where it isn't high enough to get them to parliament but is high enough to screw the Greens.

[DavidB.]

Former Sweden Democratic Youth leader Gustav Kasselstrand founded a new party to the right of the Sweden Democrats, named Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige). Under Kasselstrand's leadership, SD cut all ties with Sweden Democratic Youth because they had become too radical for SD.

Some consider Kasselstrand's move to form a new party to be "a gamechanger" in Swedish politics (Daniel Poohl, CEO of a left-wing organization) as AfS are "bringing together far-right factions that have resisted cooperation in the past and have not been able to find homes within the Sweden Democrats or the small neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement." Others, like political scientist Cas Mudde, say that this is great news for SD, as it backs up SD's claim that they have become more moderate -- so moderate that extremists leave the party in droves and found their own one.

[MAINEiac4434]

Former Sweden Democratic Youth leader Gustav Kasselstrand founded a new party to the right of the Sweden Democrats, named Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige). Under Kasselstrand's leadership, SD cut all ties with Sweden Democratic Youth because they had become too radical for SD.

Some consider Kasselstrand's move to form a new party to be "a gamechanger" in Swedish politics (Daniel Poohl, CEO of a left-wing organization) as AfS are "bringing together far-right factions that have resisted cooperation in the past and have not been able to find homes within the Sweden Democrats or the small neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement." Others, like political scientist Cas Mudde, say that this is great news for SD, as it backs up SD's claim that they have become more moderate -- so moderate that extremists leave the party in droves and found their own one.

I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.

Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?

[TheSaint250]

I doubt AfS will have much of an impact, but hopefully this continues to push radical elements out of SD.

[DavidB.]

I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.

Agreed.

Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?

Seems more like the Gauland supporting type to me...

[MAINEiac4434]

I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.

Agreed.

Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?

Seems more like the Gauland supporting type to me...

Yeah, I forgot that Petry sort of represented the “moderate” (using that term very lightly) wing of AfD before she left the party.

[Sestak]

Wait, does that mean that SD are essentially going to become Sweden's version of Blue Reform, except more popular?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean, the DPP has also split a rightist formation. Surprised Norwegian Progress hasn't also done so by now.

[parochial boy]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway? And conversely, is there any chance of SD doing well up North this year? - going by *global trends* analysis, working class small towns like Kiruna or Gallivare seem to have avoided giving them many votes up until now.

[Lord Halifax]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

[parochial boy]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either

[Lord Halifax]

What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.

Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either

The "lots of problems with them" is the important part, there is an ongoing gang war in Malmo, crime is high, Jews have been persecuted and so on. Malmo is an old industrial city with a strong working class culture. These places are often good for RWPPs. This thesis explains the SD appeal in Malmo fairly well: http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1459290&fileOId=1487460

[Gustaf]

4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

Enough to give SD enough concessions to gain their support, or would they just be banking on their support because they wouldn't want to bring the right bloc down? If the latter, and SD don't play ball, then their unwillingness to see the left bloc govern as a minority will likely be returned.

As for the poll: V

I'm pretty certain M won't let a Red-Green minority form like they did last term. I however don't think they're ready for any sort of formal deal with SD. So more the latter alternative you mention.

Other things brought up here:

1. Kasselstrand is a crazy fascist and the kind of guy I'd fear for my life from. Thankfully, open fascism has never been a particularly popular concept in Sweden. He'll get some die-hard racists on board but I doubt they will have much impact.

2. The Swedish North has a very strong left-wing tradition. Places like Gällivare and Kiruna extremely so. These are also places where there aren't that many immigrants and where depopulation means people don't necessarily mind some people moving in. SD has crept up in support in places like Dalarna though where the left doesn't have quite the same stranglehold.

3. SD support in Skåne is less about Malmö and more about the rest of the region. It should also be noted that SD used to be a lot more Skåne-based than they are now, because their support has gone up more in other parts of the country.

For reference, SD got about their national average in Malmö but racked up a lot of votes elsewhere.

Skåne has seen a lot of immigrants and also a lot of problems with those immigrants. Malmö is in pretty bad shape. Skåne is also historically more conservative than most of Sweden (not Malmö but the more rural areas). To crazily generalize, Skåne is more like the US South with large landowners having influence historically. It was part of Denmark until the 1600s and was thus more feudal. To some extent I have a feeling its voting patterns still resemble other such parts of the world more than the rest of Sweden. It's, for lack of a better word, a bit less Swedish than the rest of Sweden, sort of like how Denmark is a bit less Scandinavian. It does have industrial areas hit hard by loss of manufacturing but I don't feel that is the main reason for their rise much like I don't buy that as the story behind Trump support. There are lot of angry, racist, fairly well-off white men in Skåne.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

as I like to do, if our poll results were the actual results...

S: 110 Seats (-3)
SD: 92 Seats (+43)
V: 80 Seats (+59)
M: 43 Seats (-41)
C: 24 seats (+2)
Other: 0 seats (-60)

11% of votes go to parties below threshold.

Most likely coalition: S+V 190/349 seats

[TheSaint250]

If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

[Gustaf]

If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

SD is free to vote for Alliance budgets if they want. However, I'm not sure the Allicance would form a government if they didn't know their budget was guaranteed to pass. It is also not clear that SD would offer supply and confidence without anything in return (I doubt it). And, crucially, C (and maybe L) probably wouldn't agree to any such deal with SD.

[TheSaint250]

If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

SD is free to vote for Alliance budgets if they want. However, I'm not sure the Allicance would form a government if they didn't know their budget was guaranteed to pass. It is also not clear that SD would offer supply and confidence without anything in return (I doubt it). And, crucially, C (and maybe L) probably wouldn't agree to any such deal with SD.

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

[Diouf]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

[TheSaint250]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

[Gustaf]

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

While you're right, the thing is that the left certainly won't have anything close to a majority. So it's unclear what would happen. There has been speculation that C and/or L could join S. That'd be very controversial though and potentially a little suicidal for them. It also is unclear to what extent they want to work with V or MP (probably not very much).