Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
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SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
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C (Centre)
 
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MP (Green)
 
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Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74091 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #100 on: April 10, 2018, 02:00:49 PM »

I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.
AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.
Yes, I do not recall SD campaigning on deporting "hundreds of thousands. At least." I cannot think of another RRWP in Western Europe that has explicitly said the same, either.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #101 on: April 10, 2018, 02:13:17 PM »

I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.
AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.
Yes, I do not recall SD campaigning on deporting "hundreds of thousands. At least." I cannot think of another RRWP in Western Europe that has explicitly said the same, either.

While the FPÖ is not saying it, they are doing it right now:

Last year, there were a record 12.000 deportations here (under SPÖVP).

But with Kickl (FPÖ) recently speeding up the raids (as campaigned on), deportations this year are likely reaching 20.000-30.000

So, in the coming 5 years this would mean 100.000-150.000 removals from the country - assuming they keep the pace.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #102 on: April 11, 2018, 03:39:25 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2018, 07:46:07 AM by muon2 »


Since not many Swedes want to back full-blown fascism, AfS is unlikely to do much better than their various predecessors on the far-right fringe.

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #103 on: April 11, 2018, 11:03:13 AM »



Thank you for your answer, SwedishCheese. How anti-Israel are AfS exactly? I suppose I could live with a "not our problem, don't engage with it" stance to the point where I could still vote for them over SD (who are better on this issue), but anything further than that (i.e. outspoken solidarity with "Palestine") would be a dealbreaker.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2018, 11:20:10 AM »

AfS are Nazis so they probably want Jews to be dead. Hardly surprising David B would be a fan of theirs.
... Huh

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.
I used to know an Alliance voter online, very weird person. And extremely smug. All these parties must be like that as well.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.
This positioning doesn't pass the bullsh*t test. No Palestinian supporter on the far right actually cares about Palestinians, they only care about opposing Jews. Regardless, the damage on this subject is already done, as Sweden is unlikely to withdraw its recognition of Palestine even under an Alliance or right-wing government. If AfS want to stay neutral (no foreign aid to P., neutral votes in international fora) I could live with their stance, otherwise it becomes problematic. Anyway, difficult to form an opinion of them. I will just follow in what direction they develop themselves. Seems like they attracted some of the more serious SD politicians.
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Aboa
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« Reply #105 on: April 11, 2018, 05:04:16 PM »

I don't remember neither Kasselstrand or Hahne actually saying anything about Palestine after 2011 and even then they justified as a counter move to SD stance against Palestine statehood. I doubt it's in anyway central question in AfS agenda.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #106 on: April 12, 2018, 03:53:22 AM »

AfS are Nazis so they probably want Jews to be dead. Hardly surprising David B would be a fan of theirs.
... Huh

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.
I used to know an Alliance voter online, very weird person. And extremely smug. All these parties must be like that as well.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.
This positioning doesn't pass the bullsh*t test. No Palestinian supporter on the far right actually cares about Palestinians, they only care about opposing Jews. Regardless, the damage on this subject is already done, as Sweden is unlikely to withdraw its recognition of Palestine even under an Alliance or right-wing government. If AfS want to stay neutral (no foreign aid to P., neutral votes in international fora) I could live with their stance, otherwise it becomes problematic. Anyway, difficult to form an opinion of them. I will just follow in what direction they develop themselves. Seems like they attracted some of the more serious SD politicians.

I was just noting that people liking Kasselstrand are very rare and the only one I've encountered was predictably fascist and weird.

And it's a little odd that someone who makes such a big show out of Jewish identity would be so positive towards people like Kasselstrand. I can assure you he doesn't make us feel very safe.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #107 on: April 12, 2018, 04:19:22 AM »

Anyway, the signalling of AfS is very obvious if one knows anything about the far-right.

How can you tell if a far-right party is actually closeted Nazis?

1. Does their hatred of Jews trump their hatred of Muslims so much that they oppose Israel? Check!
2. Does their hatred of global world order/the US/capitalism/The West (read:Jews) trump their hatred of Muslims so much that they oppose the US, NATO etc? Check!
3. Do they for unclear reasons make a big deal out of animal rights in the tradition of a certain mustachioed gentleman? Check!
4. Do they get their inspiration from creepy videos where people shout about race war? Check!
5. Do they support openly racist "identitarians"? Check!

They're also not attracting serious SDers. People like Mikael Jansson were always uncomfortable with SD dropping the overt racism. If one knows anything about Swedish politics this is very clear. SD no longer opposes race-mixing and this upsets some people. Though not very many outside their activist base. Toss in a few dissatisfied whingers who are in it for personal reasons and you have a party but not a very appealing one.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #108 on: April 21, 2018, 07:07:43 AM »

Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #109 on: April 21, 2018, 08:34:33 AM »

Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.

Geez.

Have you talked to this guy since? Tried to knock some sense into him?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #110 on: April 24, 2018, 08:35:20 AM »

Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.

Geez.

Have you talked to this guy since? Tried to knock some sense into him?

I argued with him online about the "blacks are too dumb to work" position but I haven't met him in person in about a year. I think he's become a bit of a lost cause.

In other news, the Centre party sided with the government on their amnesty mess so the Alliance is probs done.
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« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2018, 12:52:36 PM »

https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers

Social Democratic aim to halve refugee numbers.

I guess a resumption of the Green-Red coalition is out of the question?
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2018, 01:50:16 PM »

https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers

Social Democratic aim to halve refugee numbers.

I guess a resumption of the Green-Red coalition is out of the question?

It'll be quite hard to sell a continuation of the coalition to the membership of either party. At the moment it doesn't even seem as if the two parties are trying to hide their contempt for each-other any longer.

I think if there's one thing we can be sure about when it comes to this election it is that government will be hard for whoever wins. (Though that seems to be standard in European elections nowadays...)
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« Reply #113 on: May 06, 2018, 01:58:47 PM »

I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).
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« Reply #114 on: May 06, 2018, 02:58:06 PM »

I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).

It's not really feasible. The reason the Alliance are having troubles is immigration. While the Centre Party and to a lesser extent the Liberals want a more generous immigration policy, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats wants further restrictions.

So the Centre Party doesn't agree with SAP on either immigration or economics, while they at least agree on economics with the Moderates. So if C isn't able to agree with M they aren't very likely to agree with SAP and form government with them.

My bet for a long time has been that we either get a pure Moderate minority government or a pure Social Democratic minority government.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #115 on: May 07, 2018, 08:04:35 AM »

I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).

It's not really feasible. The reason the Alliance are having troubles is immigration. While the Centre Party and to a lesser extent the Liberals want a more generous immigration policy, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats wants further restrictions.

So the Centre Party doesn't agree with SAP on either immigration or economics, while they at least agree on economics with the Moderates. So if C isn't able to agree with M they aren't very likely to agree with SAP and form government with them.

My bet for a long time has been that we either get a pure Moderate minority government or a pure Social Democratic minority government.

Assuming the Liberals and Greens get in, yes and even then they probably would be a minority government (albeit one that would usually win votes probably).
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #116 on: May 07, 2018, 08:07:02 AM »

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #117 on: May 14, 2018, 07:13:23 AM »

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #118 on: May 14, 2018, 07:56:37 AM »

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

Also, if you don't mind, who are you supporting?
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #119 on: May 14, 2018, 11:00:33 AM »

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

No, they have invested a lot of effort trying to re-brand themselves as a party that is though on immigration. Shifting their position on immigration and get people to see their new policy as credible and reliable has been one of their main focuses the last four years and changing position once more would be deadly for their support.

My guess is that although they want an Alliance government they'd be willing to sacrifice it if the choice was between that and start bleeding voters to SD again.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #120 on: May 14, 2018, 11:18:01 AM »

Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

Also, if you don't mind, who are you supporting?

Yeah, I agree with the above analysis that they're gonna stick to a tougher line for at least this election.

I don't really know who I'll support I'm pretty dissatisfied with all the parties tbh.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #121 on: May 18, 2018, 11:57:31 PM »

What are the current, official positions/statements of the center-right parties on a possible coalition with the far-right SD ?

Together, these parties would get some 60% right now.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #122 on: May 19, 2018, 06:55:14 AM »

I think everyone is officially opposed to it, but most people suspect M and KD would be open to it in practice. C is definitely totally opposed. L is somewhere in between that I think.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #123 on: May 19, 2018, 06:58:06 AM »

I think everyone is officially opposed to it, but most people suspect M and KD would be open to it in practice. C is definitely totally opposed. L is somewhere in between that I think.

Thx.

Between such a coalition of M+SD+KD, a SAP+M "grand" coalition, a SAP+M+SD really grand coalition and a minority government of either left or right, how would you rate the likelihoods in % ?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #124 on: May 19, 2018, 07:39:00 AM »

Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?
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