Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Tender Branson]

Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

I would usually say because it is an online poll and because of young people being strong Far-Right supporters. And because Sweden has high turnout, which means young people are turning out in big numbers as well, they are also very accurate (YouGov and Sentio, both online polls, were the most accurate in predicting the SD-share in 2014).

[TheSaint250]

Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

I would usually say because it is an online poll and because of young people being strong Far-Right supporters. And because Sweden has high turnout, which means young people are turning out in big numbers as well, they are also very accurate (YouGov and Sentio, both online polls, were the most accurate in predicting the SD-share in 2014).

Ah ok. Makes sense.

I feel distrusting of YouGov in the Swedish election, but then again, it was the only major prediction group to predict a hung parliament in the UK last year.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm going to say - Swedes can correct me if I'm wrong - that a minority government is far, far, far more likely than any cross-bloc coalition.

[Gustaf]

Lots of things to answer. Online polls tend to show higher SD support. They've been more accurate for SD in the past but not the most accurate overall.

Sweden has a high bar for being in government together and also a long history of minority governments so I'd say minority government is most likely.

To be specific, the chance of an S+SD gov is 0%. M+SD+KD is like maybe 5% at most and M+S is probably a decent chance like 10%.

The most likely cross the aisle gov is probably something like S + C + L tbh.

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that the SD gained significantly in the last few months, going from 15% to around 20% and almost reaching the level of a year ago.

They will likely end up between 20-25%, putting them in a tough fight for 1st between the Social Democrats and the Moderates.

The Social Democrats are heading for an all-time low in this election, also because the Left Party is rather strong this time.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since today is the National Day of Sweden, I think it's suitable to update with some interesting opinion polls.

(Election result 2014 in parenthesis)


Yesterday SCB released their famous once-every-six-months poll which by many is seen as the most prestigious poll of all.

Sweden parliament:

Left party - 7,4% (5,7%)
Social Democrats - 28,3%  (31,0%)
Green Party - 4,3% (6,9%)

Centre Party - 8,7% (6,1%)
Liberals - 4,4% (5,4%)
Christian Democrats - 2,9% (4,6%)
Moderates - 22,6% (23,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 18,5% (12,9%)


The Gotheburg based newspaper Göteborgsposten has commissioned a poll from Sifo for the local city council election in Gothenburg.

Gothenburg city council:

Left party - 13,2% (9,4%)
Social Democrats - 15,4%  (22,4%)
Green Party - 5,0% (10,7%)

Feminist Initiative - 4,2% (4,0%)

Centre Party - 3,3% (2,7%)
Liberals - 6,3% (8,1%)
Christian Democrats - 1,8% (4,0%)
Moderates - 19,7% (22,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 9,9% (7,0%)

Democrats* - 13,9% (N/A)
Vägvalet (Road choice)* - 5,6% (4,9%)

*Local party


The Malmö based newspaper Sydsvenskan has also commissioned a poll from Novus for the local city council election in Malmö.

Malmö city council:

Left party - 11,1% (8,5%)
Social Democrats - 29,5%  (32,9%)
Green Party - 5,0% (8,6%)

Feminist Initiative - 2,2% (3,2%)

Centre Party - 2,3% (1,7%)
Liberals - 5,8% (5,4%)
Christian Democrats - 1,3% (1,5%)
Moderates - 22,6% (23,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 17,6% (13,1%)

[parochial boy]

It's a long shot, but supposing the Greens, Liberals, KD and FI all fall below the threshold; you could potentially have something like 15% of all votes being "wasted" as it were.

Would that start to lead to some demands for electoral reform?

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats are dropping like a rock in Sweden right now ...

They are down 8% in the last half year, from around 30% to about 21-23% now.

I wouldn't rule out the Sweden Democrats winning 25-30% of the vote now, if they are acting as a big vacuum cleaner for former Social Democratic and Moderate voters.

[DavidB.]

The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

[DL]

The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

Unfortunately, these days much of the "Jewish establishment" around the world has veered off to the far right and likes to turn a blind eye to ultra rightwing neo-Nazi anti-semitism (I mean who cares about the Nazis they only killed siox million of us) like this. They will spend 99.% of their time fretting about "anti-semitism on the left" and obsess over parsing every sentence uttered by Jeremy Corbyn, while ignoring these rightwing xenophobes. Look at how Netanyahu sucks up to anti-semitic xenophobes like Orban and Putin....

[kelestian]

The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

Unfortunately, these days much of the "Jewish establishment" around the world has veered off to the far right and likes to turn a blind eye to ultra rightwing neo-Nazi anti-semitism (I mean who cares about the Nazis they only killed siox million of us) like this. They will spend 99.% of their time fretting about "anti-semitism on the left" and obsess over parsing every sentence uttered by Jeremy Corbyn, while ignoring these rightwing xenophobes. Look at how Netanyahu sucks up to anti-semitic xenophobes like Orban and Putin....

Putin? Antisemite?

[The Lord Marbury]

In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

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[Tender Branson]

A gang-related drive-by shooting in Chicago Malmö left 3 people dead and 1 seriously injured.

I expect the Swedes to send a strong signal in September.

[DavidB.]

In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

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Not a smart issue to talk about right before an election. That said, I don't think it was antisemitic. I followed the controversy, and his argument was that Sweden (essentially like Russia) is a multicultural society that comprises multiple peoples: the Swedish nation, but also Jews and Sami. According to this line of reasoning Jews and Sami are equally Swedish in terms of citizenship but are distinct peoples with a right to their own culture and heritage, together making up Sweden. Not recognizing this would essentially force these minorities into the Swedish mold.

One can agree or disagree with this. I am on the fence, and I understand why many Jews would dislike the perception of their Swedishness being questioned. I certainly would feel awkward if the Dutch right started talking about this subject. However, I don't think it is antisemitic, as I think Söder meant to say what I outlined in the above paragraph.

[ingemann]

In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

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This is the danger with falling in love with a clever debating point, you forget how it can be used against you. This would  have been a excellent anonymous attack on a internet board, it was less smart to use by a senior member of a party, which was original founded by neo-Nazis.

[Diouf]

YouGov poll for June

[Tender Branson]

YouGov poll for June

   

[Tender Branson]

The Sweden Democrats gain 16% compared with the 2014 election and 5.5% compared with the same poll from last month.

Lowest ever result for the Social Democrats, while the Greens and Christian Democrats would be kicked out of parliament ...

On the other hand, the Left Party also gains 3.5% compared with the 2014 election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The KD getting kicked out seems like s certainty now, the greens will be close.

[Diouf]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

[Former President tack50]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

[TheSaint250]

Are YouGov polls reliable in Sweden? They've largely been on the outside by showing, first, SD leading when no one else did and, now, SD leading by such large margins when no one else is.

[ingemann]

I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

No a coalition between the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats are not possible.

[ingemann]

Are YouGov polls reliable in Sweden? They've largely been on the outside by showing, first, SD leading when no one else did and, now, SD leading by such large margins when no one else is.

Honestly no poll is really reliable with the Sweden Democrats, I suspect that YouGov have been able to see that they other polls gave SD too low a vote, when compared to the size of error last election and now they have gone to far to th other side.

[parochial boy]

As much as anything, it seems quite, unusual, in the context of a scandiwegie election, to be seeing such a swing away rrom the incumbent at this stage