Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
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Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74087 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #175 on: June 30, 2018, 07:37:36 AM »

Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place. That said I wonder if this will ironically hurt the chance of a left government - if people tempted to lend a vote to MP to ensure they don't fall sub-threshold instead park their vote in SAP to stop SD declaring a symbolic "victory", we could see more wasted votes on the Left.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #176 on: June 30, 2018, 07:51:05 AM »

Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #177 on: June 30, 2018, 12:35:02 PM »

Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place. That said I wonder if this will ironically hurt the chance of a left government - if people tempted to lend a vote to MP to ensure they don't fall sub-threshold instead park their vote in SAP to stop SD declaring a symbolic "victory", we could see more wasted votes on the Left.

Ehh ... you expect a government with a 15% approval rating to gain in the last two months ?

More like the opposite.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #178 on: June 30, 2018, 01:03:01 PM »

Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?

Naive belief in precedent: I admit it's not much though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #179 on: June 30, 2018, 01:06:39 PM »

So long as you don't confuse tendencies with rules, then precedent is always something to bear in mind. Of course it isn't as if there's much uniformity with Swedish polling at present: different firms are showing strikingly divergent pictures.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #180 on: June 30, 2018, 01:21:50 PM »

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #181 on: June 30, 2018, 01:33:24 PM »

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #182 on: June 30, 2018, 01:45:39 PM »

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?
Seems likely that M and SD alone will not have a majority, and assuming KD don't get in, L is the next likeliest party to change its mind on cooperation with SD, especially if a) M do it too and b) SD will not actually be in the government. Though of course it remains to be seen whether they are ready to cross that bridge.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #183 on: July 01, 2018, 02:23:33 AM »

Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/rape-case-surge-puts-focus-on-crime-as-swedish-election-looms

https://www.thelocal.se/20180118/reported-rapes-in-sweden-up-by-10-percent
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mvd10
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« Reply #184 on: July 01, 2018, 10:19:35 AM »

Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/rape-case-surge-puts-focus-on-crime-as-swedish-election-looms

https://www.thelocal.se/20180118/reported-rapes-in-sweden-up-by-10-percent

I do wonder how many (marital) rapes committed by white Christian Swedes weren't reported in the 1970s/1980s because of shame or things like that. Still, a very worrisome development. Is this a huge issue in Swedish politics? When I read right-wing blogs (just for fun, don't judge lol) I always read horror stories about the situation in Swedish cities but is it considered a huge issue in Sweden? Do parties other than SD talk about it?
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PSOL
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« Reply #185 on: July 01, 2018, 03:45:48 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2018, 01:40:42 PM by PSOL »

Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).


I do wonder how many (marital) rapes committed by white Christian Swedes weren't reported in the 1970s/1980s because of shame or things like that. Still, a very worrisome development. Is this a huge issue in Swedish politics? When I read right-wing blogs (just for fun, don't judge lol) I always read horror stories about the situation in Swedish cities but is it considered a huge issue in Sweden? Do parties other than SD talk about it?
Hold on, I’ve heard this news before. It is bunk due to Swedish law counting each act as rape, plus more reporting. I believe tying it to American definitions of sex crimes makes it bunk.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #186 on: July 01, 2018, 04:06:06 PM »

I think it's a mixture of both. It would be naive to deny the influence of immigration on such crimes, but I highly doubt there were only 500 sex attacks in the whole of Sweden in 1975.
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PSOL
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« Reply #187 on: July 03, 2018, 01:42:23 PM »

Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #188 on: July 03, 2018, 04:49:46 PM »

Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.

What are you talking about? The 2010-16 increase is the fastest.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #189 on: July 04, 2018, 01:34:19 PM »

Sweden Democrats have been accepted into the European Conservatives and Reformists group at the European Parliament. Thus the party moves further toward the mainstream and away from the fringe; it's more difficult to label a sister party of the British Tories as far-right (though I'm sure people will try...).
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PSOL
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« Reply #190 on: July 04, 2018, 03:04:58 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2018, 03:17:19 PM by PSOL »

Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.

What are you talking about? The 2010-16 increase is the fastest.
I’m talking about in relation to the 1976 statistical note, if accounted then for Swedish law it is a huge increase, but not as much if counted for if you look at the American Metric, which is what Branson posted. Still a terrible thing that must be dealt with, no question. But using the Swedish data doesn’t look at how things are accounted for, each individual act of rape is recorded, while the American law accounts for more the perpetrator with time lapses. Just giving raw data without informing about Swedish law is misleading and that is what is wrong with that. So yes but my point still stands about needing subtext.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #191 on: July 04, 2018, 04:38:20 PM »

Sweden Democrats have been accepted into the European Conservatives and Reformists group at the European Parliament. Thus the party moves further toward the mainstream and away from the fringe; it's more difficult to label a sister party of the British Tories as far-right (though I'm sure people will try...).
I agree with your main point. However, the Tories will be out, and ECR will probably be PiS-led from next year onwards, meaning the group will move to the right: the Tories were always the ones keeping it from becoming openly nationalist.

From a domestic perspective this is a very smart move by SD, as the association with EFDD could be an argument for other parties to portray them as extreme, and Swedes don't want to rock the boat. I don't think SD's position on the EU has actually changed, though.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #192 on: July 04, 2018, 04:51:33 PM »

I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?
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EPG
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« Reply #193 on: July 04, 2018, 05:14:52 PM »

I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?

Everyone who knows the difference between ECR, EFDD and ENF writes on here.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #194 on: July 04, 2018, 06:08:20 PM »

I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?

Everyone who knows the difference between ECR, EFDD and ENF writes on here.


Probably the biggest and the most important from the point of view of EU is that ECR is not anti-EU group and they officially confirm their commitment to the EU idea, they just want a little bit less of that EU. EFDD and ENF group parties which are eurosceptic or even hostile to the idea of the EU. Differences between EFDD and ENF are mainly based on their member parties - they are both loose groupings without any strong institutional base - both of them might be stronger after 2019 or do not exist after 2019.
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EPG
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« Reply #195 on: July 04, 2018, 06:29:18 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2018, 06:34:13 PM by EPG »

Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #196 on: July 05, 2018, 04:18:52 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2018, 05:00:51 AM by DavidB. »

Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.
You don't know what you are talking about. The vast majority of the Swedes do not want to leave the EU, and neither do SD. If SD were to support Swexit and made this an important campaign theme, they would lose a lot of votes compared to the current polls.

Meanwhile, AfS have launched their campaign #enhalvmiljon, indicating the number of immigrants (half a million) they want out at the very least. 88.000 (makes you think) of them would be immigrants with Swedish citizenship.
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windjammer
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« Reply #197 on: July 05, 2018, 12:07:33 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if SD ends up joining the government.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #198 on: July 05, 2018, 01:02:42 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if SD ends up joining the government.

Word is the Moderates and the Centre Party have openly discussed it and seem to be leaving the door open.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #199 on: July 05, 2018, 02:21:16 PM »

Neither the Moderates and absoloutley not the Centre party has opened that door. The former M party leader Anna Kinberg Batra tried to open that door, M then droped sharply in the opinion polls and Anna resigned.
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