Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[EPG]

Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.

You don't know what you are talking about. The vast majority of the Swedes do not want to leave the EU, and neither do SD. If SD were to support Swexit and made this an important campaign theme, they would lose a lot of votes compared to the current polls.

Whatever, some people said the same about the UK. It's not likely but it might happen in Sweden, not tomorrow yes, not most likely to leave next yes, but it's foolish to exclude EU exits. It is a net payer, it has a lot of voters with baseline ideological hostility to the EU, and it gains relatively little from the common monetary policy or common foreign policy. Most importantly, trust in the EU and its institutions is low compared to national institutions. Sweden is a pretty good country and in a clash between a SD national government and the EU, people would take both sides. Whereas in Poland it's not likely and it won't happen - people would overthrow the government before leaving the EU.

[mileslunn]

Any chance of a Swedexit referendum if the Sweden Democrats do better than expected.  Yes risky, but considering how close the British one was and how things haven't been going great, it might be a way to shut down the issue.  Other idea perhaps is for Sweden to remain in the EU, but leave the Scheghen Agreement (UK and Ireland are not part of it) and re-establish border controls although not sure what the public attitude is on this. 

If Sweden Democrats come in first, is convention they get first chance to try and form government (Off course they will fail) or does the king speak with all the parties and give the mandate to whomever he feels is most likely to form one as opposed to the largest party?

[FredLindq]

No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.

[mileslunn]

No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.

I thought Eurosceptism was quite strong in Sweden?  Has Brexit led to a strong shift in the idea being a bad one as I heard in Denmark support for leaving EU dropped dramatically after Brexit negotiations got under way.  The odd thing is Brexit for all its woes hasn't been as bad as opponents said it would be, but it hasn't been smooth either like the supporters claimed.  I guess having someone drive around in a bus saying we send so much to the EU each week, lets spend on health care won't work as the 350 million pound bus was called out as a lie afterwards.

[FredLindq]

In 2001 it was 40-40 and before that more thought EU was a bad thing. The gap increseaed to 2010. The it has been stable. Sweden has to much to loose from leaving. All major companies are international.

[mileslunn]

You mean saying we see send 600 million SEK to Brussels every week lets spend it on health care instead (Adjusting for exchange rate and population) wouldn't work like the 350 million pound bus Boris Johnson rode around in.

[FredLindq]

Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.

[mileslunn]

Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.

True enough. Does Sweden by chance have any papers like the Daily Mail, Express, or Sun which regularly engage in EU bashing (as I think that had an influence in UK so if you lack those might explain difference). Also what are the numbers like for those migrating from other EU member states as I believe with English being the most widely spoken foreign language (Regardless of legalities tough to live somewhere if you don't speak the language) so UK got an unusually high number of people from elsewhere in the EU thus leading to Brexit. If numbers smaller probably less of an issue.

[FredLindq]

The two largest "tabloids" i.e. evening papers are 1) Aftonbladet, socialdemocratic (very close to the party, almost like Pravda) and 2) Expressen, liberal

Although one off the largest morning papers Göteborgs-Posten has recently changed from social liberal to more conservative. I do not think that they will start bashing EU tough.

Even the Sweden Democrats are not completely for leaving the EU. It´s economic spokesperson Oscar Sjöstedt a few days ago wrote an article in Swedens largest business daily newspaper.


"DEBATE. It caused resurrection when Jimmie Åkesson said in Di that Sweden should leave the EU. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act as endorsers to the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie, writes Oscar Sjöstedt, economics spokesman (SD).

The question of a Swedish EU membership is not on the table during a possible government debate this fall. That question shall not be decided by temporary parliamentary majority but shall be subject to a referendum. Therefore, the issue is also not central to this year's constituency, but since it has been woken up, I would like to take this opportunity to reflect on how we look at the matter.

Free trade and transparency in goods, services, capital and labor are favorable to Swedish industry. We want to work for more cooperation with countries both within and outside Europe to handle environmental issues, fight international crime and terrorism. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act for endurance against the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie."

[TheSaint250]

SD does want to hold a referendum, though, right? A sort of "Let's settle this once and for all"?

[Gustaf]

It is probably a mistake to compare current-day rape stats to ones in the 70s. The classification has changed since then for one thing.

It is however true that there has been a strong increase in sex crime in the last few years, especially for certain types (like gangrape) and it's also been shown that this is attributable to immigration (because nearly all the perpetrators are immigrants). It's an issue a lot of people care about, obviously and I suspect the general increase in crime in Sweden is driving a lot of SD's support.

[Tender Branson]

Massive wildfires all over Sweden right now ...

Temps have been around 30°C or higher for several weeks now (also in Finland and Russia) and even in the Arctic.

But it turns out that even though 70% of Sweden is covered with forests, they hardly have any planes to combat wildfires with water.

Hopefully Austria will send some water bombers to Sweden soon to help out.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[DavidB.]

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

[Former President tack50]

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

I guess Sweden actually does have literal feminazis XD

[Tender Branson]

New YouGov poll has the traditional parties S and M imploding and reaching all-time-lows (and the Social Democrats coalition partners, the Greens, are still below the 4% threshold):



The S+Green government is very unpopular already and now even has to explain to voters why they are shoving billions of kronas down the throats of immigrants and trying to integrate them, while at the same time having purchased no (= zero) aircraft to combat the virulent wildfires in the country. There have been wildfires already in 2014, but the Red-Green government didn't buy anything in that regard.

It's better to spend the money on immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East of course ...

[The Lord Marbury]

Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.

Freudenthal didn't identify as Finland-Swede, in fact much of his work was aimed at proving that Finland's Swedes weren't Finns (in ethnic sense) but part of Swedish nation.

To me it seems absurd to mix ethnicity with legal concept of citizenship and to deny someones ethnic identity just because they don't hold certain citizenship.

(Apologies for the late reply)

Except I'm not trying to deny someone's ethnic identity, I was just making a point that an elected official and representative of Sweden (in his role as Deputy Speaker) like Björn Söder (who's statements the discussion was about) should not be concerned with any other definition of Swedishness than the purely legal one. Basing public policy on any vague definition beyond that is pure lunacy in my book, something which numerous politicians' obsessions with phrenology in the early parts of the 20th century definitively proved.

Other than that people are certainly free to identify as Swedish on an individual level if they wish to do so, even if they don't have a Swedish citizenship. For that matter Swedish citizens are certainly free to not identify as Swedish either, after all there are definitely several Sami and members of other minorities who feel that way, but again the point is that it is up to them alone to decide whether or not they identify as Swedish; not Björn Söder or anyone else.

The two largest "tabloids" i.e. evening papers are 1) Aftonbladet, socialdemocratic (very close to the party, almost like Pravda) and 2) Expressen, liberal

Oh come on, Aftonbladet is no more of a Pravda to the Social Democrats than Expressen is to the Liberals or Svenska Dagbladet is to the Moderates. While LO may still own a tiny minority share of Aftonbladet, to insinuate that they have any direct control over the editorial process or any influence over the news published whilst comparing them to a party mouthpiece accomplishes nothing but showing off your own partisanship.

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

Fortunately she withdrew her candidacy after FI's leadership came out against her and urged her to step down. Even so I don't suspect that this will do much damage to FI either; they're so far down in the polls already that they'd be lucky to just hold on to their base. I'm guessing that they'll end up somewhere around 1% on election day.

The S+Green government is very unpopular already and now even has to explain to voters why they are shoving billions of kronas down the throats of immigrants and trying to integrate them, while at the same time having purchased no (= zero) aircraft to combat the virulent wildfires in the country. There have been wildfires already in 2014, but the Red-Green government didn't buy anything in that regard.

It's better to spend the money on immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East of course ...

Would you be so kind as to link to the parliamentary vote where MPs decided to cut back on emergency services in order to pay for immigration? If unable to do so, could you kindly point to some evidence of political parties pledging to invest more in emergency services rather than follow ideological commitments to either cut taxes or spend more on healthcare and aid to the unemployed, prior to the spike in migration in 2015?

Just because a certain cost could've been lower doesn't mean that politicians would've prioritized things that wouldn't have had a lot of political payoff at the time, compared to the ideological committments they were elected on. Difficult concept to grasp, I know.

Though regarding aircraft for fighting fires, Sweden actually rented two such planes during the 1990s whilst evaluating them, but the investigator came to the conclusion that buying them and maintaining them on a regular basis would come at too high a cost to justify as major forest fires in Sweden were (and still are) relatively rare. Instead it was considered more cost effective to rely on European partners in the event of forest fires of that size. Not unreasonable considering that in the 2010s only this year and 2014 have had fires of such a magnitude that planes were required. However now the idea of Sweden, Norway and Finland jointly buying and maintaining such planes have been raised, most recently by the leaders of the three countries' Green parties, and that idea may be seen as more appealing by the penny pinchers at the Ministry of Finance.

[Tender Branson]

The new Sentio poll still has the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) ahead, but also shows strong gains for the far-left Left Party (V):

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Man if the liberals miss the threshold and the greens make it it would be a bad day for the alliance

[DavidB.]

Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

AfS ... the Swedish version of our FLÖ-dwarfs (0.2% in the 2017 election vs. 26% for the FPÖ).

As for Vs strong performance in polls recently: I think it has to do with the massive unpopularity of the Red-Green government in Sweden.

Many of their disappointed voters from 2014 are now opting for the more radical fringes. See Austria in 2016 during the presidential election's first round.

[parochial boy]

It's crazy that there is still such a huge difference between online and phone polling, I mean, someone is going to end up with egg on their face

[Tender Branson]

It's crazy that there is still such a huge difference between online and phone polling, I mean, someone is going to end up with egg on their face

I'm 80% sure it will be the telephone pollsters who will end up with egg on their face ...

The extreme SD will do well, the extreme Left will do well.

All the establishment+government parties will face an utter disaster.

[The Lord Marbury]

Here's a pretty useful image from pollofpolls.se

It showcases the systematic overestimation or underestimation of several parties from various pollsters, in comparison to the polling average.

Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

V has been slowly ticking upwards for several months now, due to various factors. Partly its due to the drop in the support for the Social Democrats, with the gains really taking off when S presented the strict immigration policy the party would run on back in early May. The failure of FI to take off has also mainly benefited V. However the party has been gaining slowly for the past few years, in thanks to the benefitial position of being an opposition party which can criticize the government, while at the same time negotiating the budget with the government and getting influence over policy.

V has been pretty good strategists in these negotiations as well, by pushing for some things which may not be that expensive (benefits for glasses for children, free public transport for teens during the summer, etc) but are easily understood by voters and easy to communicate for the party. They've been pretty good at taking credit for all the good, popular things in the budgets, whilst criticizing S and MP for the bad things and for saying no to their demands of higher taxes for the very rich.

Jonas Sjöstedt is also pretty charismatic by Swedish standards, coming across as a very sympathetic and likable person in interviews and TV appearances. He's definitely one of the best performing party leaders in debates as well, if not the best at times, which doesn't hurt either.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do V aim to participate in government one day?