Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[The Lord Marbury]

Do V aim to participate in government one day?

They definitely wish to participate in the government nowadays. Of course back in their communist days they weren't interested and even had it as official policy never to bring down a Social Democratic government even though the Social Democrats refused to negotiate with them over any policy matter, simply because the alternative was considered worse.

This started to change in the 1980s as the party moved in a more Eurocommunist direction, with the party changing its stance in practice for the first time in 1990 when they voted down the Carlsson government's "crisis package" meant to cool down the then-overheated Swedish economy with measures including wage freezes and a temporary ban on strikes which the Left couldn't stomach. Other measures in the package also angered the right, so this marked the first time ever that V (or Vpk as it was known back then) had voted to bring down a Social Democratic government together with the right.

After the 1994 election after they had dropped the communism from their name and their constitution, they got to participate in budget negotiations for the first time. Even though S dropped them for C later in the term, the dissatisfaction with the S government's budget cuts propelled them to their best result ever, with 12% of the vote in the 1998 election. Even so, afterwards there was never any talk of joining the government and the party quite happily settled for influence over the budget and other bills, knowing that their votes would be required in cases where the right was united and S would have to negotiate. The deal with S got a little closer after the 2002 election, though mostly as a result of demands from the Greens. When S were unwilling to give the Greens cabinet seats, they reached a deal wherein Green advisors would be given positions within the S government, and V demanded the same deal but were never a driving force in those negotiations.

The party's attitude to participating in a government changed a lot during the following years, with it at least being discussed during the 2006 election, and when the Social Democrats and the Greens formed an alliance in 2008 Lars Ohly and V were quick to go out and criticize them and demand to be included. Which they eventually were because of internal left-flank pressure within the Social Democrats against Mona Sahlin, demanding their inclusion. Of course the Red-Green coalition were unsuccessful in the 2010 election, but it opened the floodgates and now V are openly talking about participating in a government. Sjöstedt famously held a press conference whilst visibly angry and upset after the 2014 election when Stefan Löfven had point blank told him that they would not get cabinet seats. That year, for the first time ever, they didn't vote for a Social Democratic candidate for PM in parliament, but rather chose to abstain.

This election they're not placing as much emphasis on participating in government as they did in 2014, but it's no question that they want to do so. However the experience that they've seen the Greens undergo in government may have made them a little more wary, but under the right circumstances they would definitely go for it. Jonas Sjöstedt has even said that they would be willing to participate in (or work with) a government which included the Centre or Liberal parties, something which would be considered a complete impossibility only 10 years ago.

[Kosmos]

How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?

In 2014 the mainstream parties (Alliance + S bloc) signed an agreement which would let the leader of the largest bloc be PM while the other bloc abstains on budgets and other important stuff. Does that agreement still stand?

That agreement did not last even a full year. It was very unpopular with centre-right voters, especially M and KD voters, and it was abandoned after KD delegates voted against it at their party conference in 2015.

Basically, M and KD wants to take power with passive SD support regardless of what bloc becomes the biggest. C and L, who have a bigger aversion to SD, have said that they can accept this if the centre-right is the biggest bloc (this would be somewhat similar to the 2010-2014 period, except with a much stronger SD obviously). However, if the left become the biggest bloc they seem to lean towards some form of centrist government with the Social democrats, although nobody knows for sure. C in particular is very economically to the right these days, so cooperation with S is a bit difficult to imagine.

[Helsinkian]

A group of "youths" torched dozens of cars in Gothenburg and other cities. At some places these "youths" also threw rocks at the firefighters.

[Ethelberth]

Some parties seem to have two types of "sedlar", regional and local. How the seats are distributed between them?

[Diouf]

Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.

[KingSweden]

Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.

Is she the one who said people who shop in bulk should be hit with tax penalties?

[Gustaf]

Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.

Is she the one who said people who shop in bulk should be hit with tax penalties?

You're referring to their traffic policy spokesperson Karin Svensson-Smith. And I don't Think that was exactly what was proposed it had to do with making parking by outlets and large shopping malls more expensive.

More crazy is probably her proposal now to replace half of Sweden's biggest highway with a railroad.

There are 3 elections concurrently in September, municipal, regional and national. So most parties will have 3 different lists at any given place.

[Ethelberth]

I mean situation of Centre party, one for realm, one for region, in parlamentary elections.

e.g.

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valsedlar/R/rvalkrets/07/valsedlar.html

It is funny, that you can swear in the election ticket (look at Skåne party)
.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It is funny, that you can swear in the election ticket (look at Skåne party)

Whatever you think of the Skåne party otherwise, you have to give them credit for creativity when it comes to their election list.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

BTW, realized that no-one answered your question Ethelberth.

Most parties have a constituency list for their party (with local candidates to parliament) but some also have a national list. This first started to become a thing at the 2010 election (I think) when the moderates did it. The idea is that the national list can be used anywhere in the country for example by people who want to vote for the party leader but doesn't live in that person's constituency and by expats that vote from abroad.

As far as I know there is no actual limit to how many different lists you can register for a single party, but at the local and regional level some parties will also have lists with only young candidates or old candidates for example. 

[DavidB.]

I saw that AfS are telling their supporters to write in their party name on the ballot. I assume this means they didn't manage to get enough signatures to have official ballots for their party? (I know how the Swedish system of picking ballots of every party works)

[windjammer]

Most likely coalition?

[freefair]

According to the latest Sentio poll, a Social Democrat-Green-Left-Centre coalition would have a majority. It could work, However I don't know if that would be compatible with Centre's current economic platform.

[Former President tack50]

According to the latest Sentio poll, a Social Democrat-Green-Left-Centre coalition would have a majority. It could work, However I don't know if that would be compatible with Centre's current economic platform.

Wouldn't that probably just lead to the current Social Democrat-Green government going on, but with both Left and Centre external support?

[Former President tack50]

Also, apparently today a news article came out saying that 58% of all rapes in Sweden are made by first generation inmigrants. 40% by inmigrants from Africa and the Middle East

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

I don't think this is particularly surprising but still, news articles like this probably help SD a lot I guess?

[parochial boy]

Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

[Hydera]

Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

Its bursting because SD is calling for an EU exit referendum and despite initial polls showing a drop in support because the idea is very unpopular in Sweden, he's continued to campaign on it. I guess he realized that even if he somehow outpaced the Social Democrats it would be meaningless since he will not be able to form any coalition. My guess is that rather than focusing on getting the first place he wants to build a long term euroskeptic movement which is dumb considering the problems that the UK have been getting since their referendum result.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

Its bursting because SD is calling for an EU exit referendum and despite initial polls showing a drop in support because the idea is very unpopular in Sweden, he's continued to campaign on it. I guess he realized that even if he somehow outpaced the Social Democrats it would be meaningless since he will not be able to form any coalition. My guess is that rather than focusing on getting the first place he wants to build a long term euroskeptic movement which is dumb considering the problems that the UK have been getting since their referendum result.

I'm sorry, but WHAT?

SD's campaign is not focusing on leaving the European Union. Sure the party is officially for leaving the EU, which they always has been, but it's not something they actively campaign on. Åkesson said in June that he wants a referendum in the near future, but if that was the reason for their decline, they'd have started declining two months ago, not now when everybody has forgotten about it.

And the idea that Åkesson is trying to loose support on purpose is probably one of the most silly things I've read on Atlas, and that is saying something.

The reason they've dropped slightly is much more likely the result of that they've had a pretty silent campaign so far and that people are focusing more on who should be prime minister and that some of their voters thus turn to M and KD to ensure that Stefan Löfven is given the boot. The fact that they are climate change deniers when the environment has become the second most important issue   is also a much more likely reason.

[Kosmos]

SD will do very well in the election, no doubt. But it does seem like they peaked a little too early.

Either way, this shall be interesting to follow.

[parochial boy]

Another vague comment on polling, but there does seem to be a theme of SD and SAP underperforming with younger voters; and C plus the smaller left wing parties overperforming. Not surprising of course, but it does contrast with what other people have said in this thread about SD allegedly doing well with the youngs

[Hifly]

Another vague comment on polling, but there does seem to be a theme of SD and SAP underperforming with younger voters; and C plus the smaller left wing parties overperforming. Not surprising of course, but it does contrast with what other people have said in this thread about SD allegedly doing well with the youngs

It contrasts with your idea of the existential crisis of the centre-right, as the age profile of Social Democrats is distinctively old, moreso than their main opposition.

[Gustaf]

SD used to do well among younger voters but have gained a lot among older voters while I Think the current Young are more progressive. SAP is doing horribly outside of senior voters.


As regards AfS a new party is responsible for Printing and distributing their own ballots so they are unlikely to have enough party activists to get ballots to every polling station. Therefore you encourage people to use blank ballots which are Always made available.

[Helsinkian]

This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

France has a similar system iirc.

So do The Gambia, but they use marbles, which is a cute idea.

[Former President tack50]

This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

Same here in Spain except it's even worse since large parties can afford to send ballots to every home so in the end a lot of people simply don't bother with small parties