Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74089 times)
FredLindq
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« Reply #275 on: August 28, 2018, 06:55:03 AM »
« edited: August 28, 2018, 08:14:07 AM by FredLindq »

Novus poll, Malmö municipal election Published 2018-06-02
Social Democrats: 29,5% (-3,4)
Moderate: 22.6% (+0,6)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)
Left: 11.1% (+2,6)
Liberals: 5.8% (+0.4)
Greens: 5,0% (-3.6)
Centre: 2.3% (+0.6)
Feminist Initiative: 2.2% (-1.0)
Christian Democrats: 1,3% (-0.5)
Others 2,5% (-0.5)

There is a 3%-threshold.

Left-Green-Pink 47,8 (-5,4)
The Alliance 32,0 (+1,1)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)
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FredLindq
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« Reply #276 on: September 01, 2018, 01:28:25 AM »

A verk dirty Election so far....

https://www.ft.com/content/47b05d76-ad2e-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c
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DavidB.
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« Reply #277 on: September 02, 2018, 07:44:45 AM »

So what's with the SD candidate(s) with a Nazi past?
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Diouf
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« Reply #278 on: September 03, 2018, 11:36:24 AM »

Inizio polling.

Should your party be prepared to govern with support from Sweden Democrats?

72% Yes KD
64% Yes M
25% Yes L
08% Yes C

48% Yes All Allianse voters.
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Diouf
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« Reply #279 on: September 03, 2018, 11:51:01 AM »

SVT picture of the results of the election compass. The fat circles are the official response of the party to the compass. The small dots are that of individual candidates. The compass if of course with the classic left-right economic scale, and the vertical scale is globalization/multiculturalism at top and the opposite at the bottom.

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VPH
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« Reply #280 on: September 03, 2018, 01:07:52 PM »

SVT picture of the results of the election compass. The fat circles are the official response of the party to the compass. The small dots are that of individual candidates. The compass if of course with the classic left-right economic scale, and the vertical scale is globalization/multiculturalism at top and the opposite at the bottom.



Wait, so candidates can diverge publicly from the party? In a parliamentary system?
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #281 on: September 03, 2018, 01:52:21 PM »

TV4/Sifo poll: "Which of the following parties do you not want see in a government after the election?"
Liberals: 12%
Centre: 14%
Moderate: 17%
Social Democrats: 19%
Christian Democrats: 27%
Left: 34%
Greens: 37%
Feminist Initiative: 46%
Sweden Democrats: 59%
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Diouf
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« Reply #282 on: September 03, 2018, 01:58:31 PM »


Wait, so candidates can diverge publicly from the party? In a parliamentary system?

This shows answers to an election compass, so some of it can be just the difference between agree and fully agree on a question. Once in parliament all MPs from a party generally vote the same way. But the picture shows how there is a relatively big range between MP/candidates from particularly Liberals and Center, who have some candidates who are very pro-migration and fairly close to the Greens.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #283 on: September 03, 2018, 02:03:10 PM »

You would instinctively think list MPs a la Sweden would be less inclined to rebel than directly elected ones - no personal vote
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Diouf
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« Reply #284 on: September 03, 2018, 02:52:37 PM »

You would instinctively think list MPs a la Sweden would be less inclined to rebel than directly elected ones - no personal vote

Yeah, I mean in general one of the big advantages of PR is that you get more coherent parties and thereby a more transparent party choice for voters. So there should be much less need for rebels. The effect is probably the strongest with closed lists. The Swedish system is semi-closed in that MPs are elected according to their list rank, but candidates who win 5% or more of a party's votes will break the list and get elected. Still it can happen, particularly with parties who are new in government it seems. Miljöpartiet/Greens had 4 rebel MPs, who voted against government line a few times. In the end, I think they weren't really part of the Green group anymore.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #285 on: September 04, 2018, 11:25:35 PM »

For the Sweden Democrats, the spread between phone pollsters (16-19%) and online pollsters (24-25) is pretty huge right now.

I wonder what this means in the end ...
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #286 on: September 05, 2018, 05:53:46 AM »

For the Sweden Democrats, the spread between phone pollsters (16-19%) and online pollsters (24-25) is pretty huge right now.

I wonder what this means in the end ...


Shy voters.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #287 on: September 05, 2018, 06:09:55 AM »

So what's with the SD candidate(s) with a Nazi past?

How do you mean? It's originally a Nazi organization so it's full of closet Nazis. This has been known for years, the media usually exposes a bunch of them at irregular intervals. The last batch has been pretty bad even by SD standards though.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #288 on: September 05, 2018, 06:11:57 AM »

In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.
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Omega21
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« Reply #289 on: September 05, 2018, 09:54:33 AM »

In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.


Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.
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« Reply #290 on: September 05, 2018, 09:57:06 AM »

In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.


Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.

I mean, S in Denmark also did that and the DPP are just as powerful as ever.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #291 on: September 05, 2018, 12:34:45 PM »

I'll start with the predictions for Sunday:

23.6% Social Democrats (-7.4%)
21.4% Sweden Democrats (+8.5%)
17.0% Moderates (-6.3%)
11.5% Left (+5.8%)
  9.0% Centre (+2.9%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.5% Greens (-2.4%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 84.9% (-0.9%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #292 on: September 05, 2018, 02:20:55 PM »

The eventual support for the SD is the hardest to predict, but I assume the following:

Usually, if the far-right party is bouncing around wildly in support in pre-election polls, it means they are having a really good election day result.

On the other hand, I do not expect the SD to do as well as the FPÖ in Austria (26%).

The polls have been quite accurate in Austria, the Netherlands and France last year - not so much in Italy though, where the support for Lega and M5S was underestimated.

Still, Sweden is closer to the Netherlands or France politically rather than Austria or Italy - so I guess they will do well and better than what the polls show, but not as well as the FPÖ.

21-22% looks like the most likely outcome, unless there's a hidden sentiment among voters like before the first round of the Austrian Presidential election, where the polls predicted 20-25% for Hofer (FPÖ), but he got 35%. Obviously, that was right after the migrant invasion of 2015. But Sweden also has its fair share of immigration-related problems, so a surprising win for the SD in the 25-28% range can also not be ruled out ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #293 on: September 06, 2018, 10:57:24 AM »

SD 24, S 21, M 19, V 10, C 7, MP 5, L 5, KD 4, AfS 2.5, FI 2

Turnout 88%
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #294 on: September 06, 2018, 11:11:57 AM »

incredible
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DavidB.
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« Reply #295 on: September 06, 2018, 11:20:22 AM »

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #296 on: September 06, 2018, 11:25:21 AM »

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

I'm not sure if turnout can still rise on Sunday relative to the already high 86% from 2014 ...

I think in the case of Sweden, it might have peaked and is likely to fall a bit.

Sweden has naturalized a lot of migrants recently, and they are not as likely to vote as real Swedes.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180831/how-sweden-hopes-to-get-its-foreign-born-residents-to-vote

It would be a nice surprise though to see 87% or 88% turnout.
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windjammer
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« Reply #297 on: September 06, 2018, 11:28:40 AM »

I'll start with the predictions for Sunday:

23.6% Social Democrats (-7.4%)
21.4% Sweden Democrats (+8.5%)
17.0% Moderates (-6.3%)
11.5% Left (+5.8%)
  9.0% Centre (+2.9%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.5% Greens (-2.4%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 84.9% (-0.9%)
I agree with this prediction.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #298 on: September 06, 2018, 02:00:46 PM »

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #299 on: September 06, 2018, 02:23:18 PM »

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.
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