Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.

Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.

[parochial boy]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.

Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.

would be good if SD finished up with 14% though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General summary of the polling situation...

SAP - between 22.1% and 26.5%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
M - between 16.3% and 18.2%, with most polls showing about 17%.
SD - between 16.8% and 24.8%, with some very marked disagreements between polling firms. Most polls show high teens.
M - between 3.6% and 6.2%, with most polls showing around 5%.
C - between 6.0% and 9.6%, with most polls showing around 8%.
V - between 9.4% and 11.1%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
L - between 4.9% and 6.8%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
KD - between 4.8% and 7.0%, with most polls showing around 6%.

Almost all polls have shown an SAP lead (some quite large), and the exceptions have been within the MoE.

As for the two main party blocs:

Left - between 37.2% and 42.2%.
Bourgeois - between 34.4% and 39.9%.

All polls this month have had a Left lead, though sometimes within the MoE.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout 88%

incredible

It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.

If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.

Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.

would be good if SD finished up with 14% though...

lol

[jaichind]

I do not know much but my prediction

S    23.8
SD  20.1
M    16.7
V    10.1
C      8.4
L      6.0
KD   6.0
MP   5.8
FI    1.7
Oth  1.4

S+MP+V = 39.7
M+C+L+KD = 37.1

M under-performing to the benefit of SD.

[JonHawk]

S - 23.6%
SD - 22.1%
M - 17.9%
V - 9.1%
C - 7.1%
L - 5.9%
KD - 5.1%
MP - 5.0%
FI - 1.2%
Other - 2.0%

Turnout: 87.4%

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

S 27.0
SD 20.9
M 15.3
V 9.2
C 7.5
KD 7.4
L 6.0
MP 4.5
FI 0.7
AfS 0.2

I actually suspect S will overperform a bit off the back of people not wanting to see SD 'win'. C seem to me to be losing momentum while KD visibly have it. M will lose a lot of people to SD and return to Erlander-era numbers for the foreseeable future. AfS will get a derisory total and all the attention they got will look faintly silly.

[Diouf]

The last party leader debate is on SVT1 now, the main state channel. Viewers who turned on their television 5 min early were treated to this interesting story: Ali Khalil, a Stockholm councillor for the Green Party, offered 3.000 votes from his muslim community to the Moderates if they agreed to approve a building license for a new mosque. The Moderates rejected the offer. Guessing this kind of story could almost matter as much as the debate itself

[jaichind]

Panic in the Environmental Party: "We are below what the measurements show"

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/8w8J0Q/mps-panikplan-vi-ligger-lagre-an-vad-matningarna-visar

It seems MP is coming out with this just to make sure it can get last minute S tactical voting for MP to ensure a Center-Left plurality over the Center-Right bloc.

[Diouf]

Everything was about Åkesson and Sweden Democrats in the debate. At several times, it became everybody against Åkesson, particularly on immigration. Even Busch Thor from the Christian Democrats, who is probably closest to SD, was eager to say that SD had the wrong rhetoric or policy even when she herself made basically the same points. Åkesson's toughest duels were with Sjöstedt from Left Party, and particularly Löof from the Centre Party. Lööf and Åkesson had several intense duels, and at one point Åkesson even told Lööf to tone down her anger. Probably good for both parties in terms of votes to gain attention for their clear points of view, but does make it very difficult to see a government that is dependent on both parties. The Liberals again rejected dealing with SD, and talked up the idea of a cross-block agreement (that they aren't necessarily a part of themselves).

PM Stefan Löfven was quite muted and didn't play that big of a role. He was quite clear on his repeated points, particularly against the Allianse's proposed tax cuts, but was also severely hounded on his record on migration and crime from both Åkessson and Kristersson.

One should always be careful in guessing which way the opinion polls can be wrong. But with SD's role as the only proper opposition party during the term (which Åkesson reminded people tonight), an election campaign with immigration as a big subject after an extremely huge immigration inflow , and a final debate which centered around SD, I would be quite amazed if SD only managed to progress from 13 to 17%. I am fully aware that even if many voters agree with their viewpoints, it takes time for voters to give up previous party loyalties and go to the SD. But if SD only go from 13 to 17%, as Sifo, Demoskop, SKOP, Ipsos and Inizio polls suggest, then that really is a missed opportunity of huge dimensions. In these circumstances, without polls, I would have guessed something more like a doubling from 13% to 26%.

[Coffein00]

While minority governments are not that uncommon in Sweden, I would not rule out, that the Center-party and the Liberals leave their bloc to form a majority government ( S+MP+L+C ), if they would have enough seats and the Moderates start thinking about forming a coalition with the Sweden Democrats.

[jaichind]

The focus on SD should be fairly positive for SD.  Richard Nixon once said "If you ever hear of a group getting together to stop X, put your money on X."

[Diouf]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

[EPG]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

When you broadcast words, you have some responsibility for them.

"Maybe the ex-Nazis have a good point."

[DL]

The Centre Party and the Liberal Party seem so similar in Sweden. Why don’t they just merge? What issues actually set them apart?

[Tender Branson]

My updated prediction (tough race for 1st between S and SD):

22.6% Social Democrats (-8.4%)
22.4% Sweden Democrats (+9.5%)
17.5% Moderates (-5.8%)
11.0% Left (+5.3%)
  9.3% Centre (+3.2%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.2% Greens (-2.7%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 85.2% (-0.6%)

[eric82oslo]

My updated prediction (tough race for 1st between S and SD):

22.6% Social Democrats (-8.4%)
22.4% Sweden Democrats (+9.5%)
17.5% Moderates (-5.8%)
11.0% Left (+5.3%)
 9.3% Centre (+3.2%)
 5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
 5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
 4.2% Greens (-2.7%)
 1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
 1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 85.2% (-0.6%)

I'm generally agreeing, except with Left (will get less, too many spurous youth/student votes who don't vote at a high rate, the Norwegian Left party has plummeted on election day in almost every election for the past decade or longer) and with Moderates and Christian Democrats (will get more, because their voters are older and more affluent and always turn out at a super high rate, especially the super rich businness men of Moderates).

Compared to polls, I expect the biggest bumps to go to Sweden Democrats and then Moderates, while the biggest losers should be The Greens and then Left Party. That is always the case in Norway and our two countries are very similar after all. Although with some major differences too, which I've always found very fascinating. I've always felt more Swedish than Norwegian culturally and politically, though I'm 100% Norwegian genetically and a mix between Eastern and Western Norwegian, a big fault line in Norway both culturally, politically and geographically. Lol.

Turnout will be no more than 84% at most, very possibly lower. In Norway it's usually 76-78% and shrinking with almost every election.

[Diouf]

Front page of newspapers today:
The left one: "Åkesson's rage against SVT after the debate:'A Scandal'. Dissociated themselves from the SD-leader in direct coverage."
The right one: "Anger towards SVT's statement against Åkesson. Program leader dissociated themselves from them in program after debate on immigration. SD demands apology.
 

[TheSaint250]

Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

What's with the remaining 5% ?

Also: LOL at the continuation of Red-Green.

[Coffein00]

Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

What's with the remaining 5% ?

Also: LOL at the continuation of Red-Green.

the continuation of Red-Green (+Left) is not unlikely at all.

[SunSt0rm]

My prediction

24.5% Social Democrats
22.0% Sweden Democrats
18.5% Moderates
  8.5% Left
  7.5% Centre
  6.0% Christian Democrats
  5.5% Liberals
  5.0% Greens

[rob in cal]

  Ok, I've got 15 dollars wagered to win about 10 that SD comes in second. Lets see if atlas conventional wisdom puts me in the profit.

[mvd10]

23.0% Social Democrats
21.0% Sweden Democrats
17.5% Moderates
10.0% Left
8.0% Centre
6.5% Christian Democrats
6.0% Greens
5.5% Liberals
2.5% Others

Don't ask me what happens after this btw. Though I guess something like a continuation of the current government would be most likely since M+KD with SD outside support wouldn't have a majority and the centre-left would be bigger than the centre-right.

[DavidB.]

Some observations:

1. While the Sweden Democrats have become more normalized than before, there still is a taboo in confessing to vote for them (particularly given Swedish culture and mentality). This matters in telephone polls. Only the Sentio and YouGov polls are completely internet-based, and interestingly, they have much higher numbers for SD than the other polls. Sentio came closest to estimating SD's percentage of the vote correctly in 2014. There is no real reason to believe this is not the case this time.

2. SD have had a very solid campaign. No big gaffes in the last weeks, no truly shocking information that was revealed.

3. Immigration and crime by immigrants remain top concerns among Swedes, despite the establishment parties' push to talk about other issues.

Updated prediction:

Sweden Democrats 25%
Social Democrats 22%
Moderates 17%
Left 9%
Center 8%
Liberal 5%
Christian Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
AfS 2.5%
FI 1.5%

Red-Greens 35%
Alliance 35%

Turnout: 88%
Coalition: M, with explicit outside support from KD and L and tacit outside support from SD