Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[parochial boy]

Some observations:

1. While the Sweden Democrats have become more normalized than before, there still is a taboo in confessing to vote for them (particularly given Swedish culture and mentality). This matters in telephone polls. Only the Sentio and YouGov polls are completely internet-based, and interestingly, they have much higher numbers for SD than the other polls. Sentio came closest to estimating SD's percentage of the vote correctly in 2014. There is no real reason to believe this is not the case this time.

2. SD have had a very solid campaign. No big gaffes in the last weeks, no truly shocking information that was revealed.

3. Immigration and crime by immigrants remain top concerns among Swedes, despite the establishment parties' push to talk about other issues.

Updated prediction:

Sweden Democrats 25%
Social Democrats 22%
Moderates 17%
Left 9%
Center 8%
Liberal 5%
Christian Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
AfS 2.5%
FI 1.5%

Red-Greens 35%
Alliance 35%

Turnout: 88%
Coalition: M, with explicit outside support from KD and L and tacit outside support from SD

Last time there was like a 2-3 point gap between the online and phone pollsters. This time it's been more like 5-6%. I don't know what to predict at this point, but I think a gap that substantial is going to be about far moer than just a "shy SD" effect.

[Tender Branson]

I agree with David here ...

The SD should have a big day tomorrow, but I'm not sure if it will be enough for first place.

Still, I cannot imagine they will get a better result than the FPÖ.

I also agree that an M-led minority government, backed by KD and L and maybe the SD on some issues is much more likely than a continuation of Red-Green. If the recent years and events are any indicator, I think Swedish voters will liquidate Red-Green tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

[Tender Branson]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

Ehm, he's the leader of a xenophobic party.

Should a Socialist politician not talk about Socialism, but instead talk about excessive capitalism ?

Should a Green Party politician talk about how to pollute the oceans with more plastic ?

[DavidB.]

A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

My prediction:

Social Democrats - 24,8%
Sweden Democrats - 19,8%
Moderates - 17,7%
Left Party - 9,7%
Centre Party - 8,7%
Liberals - 6,1 %
Christian Democrats - 5,9%
Greens - 4,9%
Feminist Initiative - 0,9%

Others - 1,5%

[Tender Branson]

Early voting is very popular in Sweden and "Radio Sweden" reports that until yesterday a new record has been set.

In 2014, about 42% voted before election day - a number that will be closer to 50% this year.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

And interviews in English with each party leader:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/gruppsida.aspx?programid=2054&grupp=27436

[Tender Branson]

Your party sympathies in percent, based on your answers:

75% S
63% MP
59% FI
58% V

47% SD
46% M
39% C
39% L
35% KD

[parochial boy]

I was always going to do something like this, heh

V - 78%
FI - 78%
MP - 71%
S - 61%

KD - 30%
L - 25%
SD - 25%
C - 22%
M - 13%

[Diouf]

Even though Jan Björklund is much less angry than Annie Lööf, then the words coming from his mouth are as negative towards SD as those from her. Björklund does emphasize the point about responsibility in terms of securing a stable new government, but I would still tend to put L and C in the same bucket and expect them to act in the same way. Also based on a strategic view, where they seem to appeal to many of the same voters despite the party histories being quite different.

If the Allianse parties get more seats than the Red-Greens parties, I think there is a good chance that an Allianse government with all four parties will be formed. In the party leader debate yesterday, this question was asked. The four Allianse parties AND the Left Party agreed that this should happen in such a scenario. Sjöstedt was quite clear that the "winning block" should form the government, so this suggests they might even lay their votes down. Löfven and Lövin did not agree to the same, but this mostly seemed to be bitterness about how the Allianse parties acted during the last four years. In the end, I think they could very well lay down their votes as well. SD said their vote in this scenario would come down to policy, but if all Red-Greens lay down their votes, then it doesn't matter.
If the Red-Green parties get more seats than the Allianse parties then the fun really begins. All Allianse parties, particularly M and KD, should be wary of just allowing Red-Greens to govern on for four more years without a majority. However, the political correctness in Sweden's political elite is so strong that I wouldn't rule out this happening in the end, particularly if the Red-Greens keep their cool and reject all centre-right governments in this scenario. There might be some tweaks and conditions, like keeping the Greens out of government or a demand that budgets should be made with the Allianse, but I can see it happen. And ultimatively the Allianse parties might all prefer this to some cross-bloc government, because they can easier keep their hands clean and it looks less like some very weird government just to keep SD out of influence. Also the Allianse parties can then postpone breaking up the Allianse, which they all seem quite attached to after the two terms governing together. If the Red-Green parties keep their cool and promises to vote down any centre-right government, then the only chance of such a government being formed is that the Allianse parties and SD makes an agreement. There is probably little possibility for an overlap where a government both includes C and L AND is palatable to SD. So it would likely be a M-KD government, perhaps a M government. Such a government should then find some middle way, particularly on immigration, that keeps both C+L and SD from voting them down. This should be quite hard with both SD and C making significant gains due to their clear and opposite views, but maybe it can be fudged. M-KD might hope that Social Democrats could offer to lay down their votes if they present a centrist economic programme and "mainstream toughish" on immigration, but again S should probably keep their cool and reject all centre-right governments in this scenario.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

lol

[Diouf]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

There is a 1-minute video clip here at the top, that shows the incident. It can be seen in Denmark, so probably also in the rest of the World. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/svt-tar-avstand-till-akessons-kommentar-sd-starkt-kritiska

Precise description and translation:

We are on SVT1, around 10 minutes after the end of the debate. There have been a quick flash interview with all party leaders right after the debate, and now the host and two guests start to debate the debate, so they roll a clip, which is where the video starts.

Jimmie Åkesson: "If only the immigrants get jobs, then everything will solve itself". That is what all the others (pointing at other party leaders) have always said. But that still isn't happening. Therefore one must ask why it is so hard for these people to get a job. That is because these people are not Swedish. They don't fit into Sweden. It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job.

Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

Jimmie Åkesson: It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job. You have to actually do what is required to become Swedish.

Clip ends, and we are back with the host and two guests.

Host says: We should start out by saying that Jimmie Åkesson's comments here were severely generalizing. SVT distances itself from this. (Turns towards one of the guests) Why does he express himself this way, Love (his actual name)?

Guest: The party has a very clear line, and normally expresses itself in this way, although they perhaps do not go this far always. They are very clear on their policies in this area, and they probably feel a need to go further. We can see that on migration policy, where they are now even against UN quota refugees. The party feels a need to go further since other parties have moved closer to and even taken over some of SD's policy positions.

[Boobs]

Swing voter?

[Tender Branson]

Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

[PSOL]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

[Omega21]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

So, there are no integration issues whatsoever that are a part of the problem?

Don't you think someone who does not fully integrate into Swedish culture and does not learn the language bears part of the responsibility for the lack of opportunities?

[DavidB.]

Great analysis on the coalition formation, Diouf.

My result for the test:
SD 60%
M 54%
C 48%
S 47%
MP 46%
L 45%
KD 41%
V 39%
FI 34%

[JonHawk]

Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

I got

SD - 72
L - 58
M - 55
S - 52
KD - 46
C - 46
V - 40
MP - 36
FI - 34

[Diouf]

M 68%
SD 63%
S 62%
L 61%
KD 61%
C 61%
MP 49%
FI 34%
V 32%

[Diouf]

SVT is dumping Eva Landahl, the editor who told the SVT host to make the comment about SD, for the election night coverage tomorrow. Newspaper Expressen revealed that she had liked Twitter comments that were critical of Sweden Democrats, including one very critical op-ed with the headline "Sweden Democrats is a completely unneccesary party". In the statement, it also says that "After discussions, we agree that it would have been better for viewers if we had handled Åkesson's comments in another way".

[Coffein00]

My prediction:

S: 23.5%
SD: 21%
M: 17.25%
V: 9.5%
C: 8.5%
KD: 6.25%
L: 5.75%
MP: 5.25%
Oth: 3%

S+MP(+V) : 38.25%
Alliance : 37.75%

S+C+L+MP : 43%
M+KD+SD : 44.5%

needed for majority: 48.5%

[ON Progressive]

On that compass I got:
V 59%
S 59%
L 55%
MP 55%
C 54%
FI 49%
KD 47%
M 45%
SD 37%

Not too surprising at the top. I guess the most surprising thing is the big gap between C and M, since they both seem like centre-right parties.

[Tintrlvr]

Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

I got what feels like a really strange result to me. Maybe because I emphasized "Sweden should join NATO" as a major issue?

KD: 65
MP: 65
FI: 63
V: 62
C: 55
S: 52
L: 48
M: 37
SD: 30

I thought KD was not all that distinguishable from M aside from being religious. And one of my major issues was ending religious free schools...

[Former President tack50]

My result for the test (not really surprised; I guess I'd probably vote for S if I were Swedish)

S: 64%
FI: 57%
MP: 56%
V: 53%

SD: 49%
KD: 49%
M: 46%
C: 46%
L: 43%

I guess I would be a swing voter though.