Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Beezer]

[bigic]

C 76%
KD 72% (?!)
M 69%
L 63%
MP 47%
S 45%
SD 40%
V 38%
FI 33%

[Dereich]

C:   79
KD: 77   
M:   70
L:    61
   
MP:  50
S:    49

SD:  46

FI:   42
V:    34

The English version of the test was really helpful, though on reflection I'm not sure who it was aimed at outside of Atlas types.

[jaichind]

SD: 75
M: 72
L: 65
C: 55
KD: 46
S: 41
V: 30
MP: 24
FI: 22

[MAINEiac4434]

[PSOL]

After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

So, there are no integration issues whatsoever that are a part of the problem?

Don't you think someone who does not fully integrate into Swedish culture and does not learn the language bears part of the responsibility for the lack of opportunities?

How can they integrate if structurally they are barred from unemployment. With language it is a problem of lack of resources, the government can fix it by putting money into specialized classes for that. I’m just stating out that the logic of them not being Swedish is why they are not employed like regular Swedes is flawed thinking.

[The Lord Marbury]

A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

[Tender Branson]

A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

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https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?

[Tender Branson]

Btw, the polls are now open and close at 8pm local time (2pm Eastern).

[Tender Branson]

Early voting:

2.75 million people have voted early vs. 2.67 million in 2014 and 2.38 million in 2010.

7.49 million people are eligible to vote vs. 7.33 million in 2014 and 7.12 million in 2010.

[The Lord Marbury]

A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.

[Tender Branson]

A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.

Sorry, but that's what I wrote ... my Swedish (and that of Google Translate) is not that good yet.

Let's use Diouf's translation instead. I think he understands Swedish much better than I do:

Precise description and translation:

Jimmie Åkesson: "If only the immigrants get jobs, then everything will solve itself". That is what all the others (pointing at other party leaders) have always said. But that still isn't happening. Therefore one must ask why it is so hard for these people to get a job. That is because these people are not Swedish. They don't fit into Sweden. It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job.

Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

Jimmie Åkesson: It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job. You have to actually do what is required to become Swedish.

"They don't fit into Sweden." is not the same as my faulty translation: "They do not belong."

What Åkesson says here is that a large number of immigrants have problems integrating into Swedish society because their culture is so different to the Swedish one, which creates all kinds of problems, incl. not being hired by Swedish companies.

That is something totally legitimate to say and is far from racist. Immigrants are not a race either. You should clearly be able to speak about these problems on SVT, without being disassociated. Why would a Swedish insurance company boss for example hire a Muslim immigrant from Somalia or Pakistan, who doesn't speak Swedish, wears a niqab at work and refuses to take it off ? Or a male one who refuses to speak or co-operate with the other sex because of his perverted religious views ?

[The Lord Marbury]

I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.

[Tender Branson]

I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.

While the SD's talk about immigrants often gets too excessive and extreme, in essence, he's right about what he says about many immigrants who recently arrived and how far removed they are from Swedish culture.

You are really disputing the fact that because of the 100.000s of additional immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East, rapes did not increase in Sweden by a lot ? You dispute the fact that immigrants from these areas now account for 80% of rape suspects these days ? You dispute the fact that these raped Swedish women would be un-raped now if these immigrants would have been kept out of the country in the first place ?

Please WAKE UP for once and stop tolerating these abuses to the Swedish people.

[Velasco]

Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

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Please, please, please...

[The Lord Marbury]

I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.

While the SD's talk about immigrants often gets too excessive and extreme, in essence, he's right about what he says about many immigrants who recently arrived and how far removed they are from Swedish culture.

You are really disputing the fact that because of the 100.000s of additional immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East, rapes did not increase in Sweden by a lot ? You dispute the fact that immigrants from these areas now account for 80% of rape suspects these days ? You dispute the fact that these raped Swedish women would be un-raped now if these immigrants would have been kept out of the country in the first place ?

Please WAKE UP for once and stop tolerating these abuses to the Swedish people.

I actually prefer listening to researchers and experts rather than raving populists and racists. Like criminologists who actually who actually work with these issues and know far more about than some random guy on Twitter or a forum who seems to think that an opinion based on gut feelings and cherry-picked data is worth the same as an opinion based on years of peer-reviewed research.

I don't dispute that rape numbers in Sweden have gone up if you just look at raw statistics, and I don't dispute that there may be an overrepresentation of individuals with an immigrant background. However I also don't dispute the fact that the rape definition has been broadened at several points over the past 15 years which makes it far more difficult to get a true picture of the situation than you seem to think. I also don't dispute the fact that rape is one of the most underreported crimes in the world and a majority of rapes go unreported in every country in the world - but Sweden may be the furthest ahead in the share of reported rapes in part because of the broad definition but also due to an active political ambition over the past 30 years to reduce the number of rapes that go unreported.

I base this view on actually listening to experts, not by following alt-right "news" sites or opinionated people on Twitter. Which is why I'm also aware that there are a great deal of addittional factors than culture which influence why people commit rapes, murders or burglaries, such a socio-economic factors. But the far-right never seems interested in those.

I do dispute the attitude that you and others on the alt-right seem to have that rape is only an important issue when it's committed by immigrants. I don't hear you or others talk about the fact that the overwhelming majority of rapes are committed in someone's own home by someone the victims knows - most often their spouse. I only hear them care about rape victims when the man responsible is an immigrant - and in that case pretty much only when the rapist has another skin color, the don't seem to get too upset when a rape is committed by a Finnish or German immigrant.

I do dispute the fact that people like you or Jimmie Åkesson for that matter only seems to care about gender equality or women's rights when they see it as under attack by immigrants, but when it's an ethnically Swedish (or Austrian) man attacking those rights all I hear from your direction is silence. Or worse, the far-right are the ones attacking women's rights, just like SD are doing when they want to limit access to safe abortions.

I also dispute the idea of generalizing about entire groups of people because there exists a minority of criminals in that group - because every single nationality has criminals. It would be like me saying that every Austrian is a potential pedophile or every Finn is a potential knife-wielding murderer. It's crass, stupid and lowers the level of intellectual discourse to a moronically low level.

Please, for your own sake, stop talking about Sweden like you actually know anything about the situation in the country. Because every single post I've seen you make here makes it clear that you don't know anything.

[DavidB.]

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.

"They are not Swedish" is a pretty factual statement for people who do not hold Swedish citizenship. For Åkesson, the idea that "they do not belong here" follows, which is indeed value-based: others may disagree. Every politician uses basic facts and, based on their values, draws certain conclusions from these facts that others might not necessarily follow. Politics is still about ideas, so "there are no facts involved here" doesn't necessarily tell us much about the value of a statement, unless people get their facts wrong (which Åkesson doesn't, even if you may disagree with him).

If I were Swedish, I would have been undecided between AfS and SD for a long time, but ultimately I'd go for SD and this comment would definitely have helped in making up my mind.

[Diouf]

Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

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Please, please, please...

Yes, it is unfortunate that Swedish government try to cover over this problem by not making statistics on this very important area.
Luckily a few journalists have actually bothered to do this work in some areas.

For example the below research that shows, that of all sentenced for rape in Sweden between 2012 - 2017, 58% were born abroad. Quite a significant overrepresentation.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

[eric82oslo]

Early voting:

2.75 million people have voted early vs. 2.67 million in 2014 and 2.38 million in 2010.

7.49 million people are eligible to vote vs. 7.33 million in 2014 and 7.12 million in 2010.

This clearly indicates to me that turnout will be lower this year. Early voting has hardly increased at all. There have been instances even when early voting has increased a lot, where the final turnout tally has decreased in the end. Also, because of the huge increase in the support for SD, there's not really any viable majority government in sight this time around, which could further suppress turnout. And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

[DavidB.]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

[Velasco]

Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please, please, please...

Yes, it is unfortunate that Swedish government try to cover over this problem by not making statistics on this very important area.
Luckily a few journalists have actually bothered to do this work in some areas.

For example the below research that shows, that of all sentenced for rape in Sweden between 2012 - 2017, 58% were born abroad. Quite a significant overrepresentation.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

To begin with, claiming that 80% of rap suspects are foreigners without statistical evidence is just propaganda. I think the reasons why that statistical data is no longer kept are pretty well explained in the article I linked. According the experts interviewed. the figures are pretty stable in the different researches made over the years, so maybe the importance of collecting that statistical data is relative. Anyway, despite data without elaboration can be manipulated for populist means, possibly it'd be better to have statistics. In any case the researches concluded that, while a vast majority of immigrants have no connection with crime, the risk is higher among people born outside the country. However, it seems that it diminishes with second generation immigrants. Factors like age, gender, income and level of education have to be measured as well. because in all likelihood they have an impact in crime rates. Finally, an interesting fact is mentioned in the article: according to UK police statistics show a disproportionate amount of ethnic minorities stopped ans searched by the police. Possibly black people in the USA would gave something to say on the matter. I mean, we are talking about complex issues that need a more nuanced approach than that of Breitbart News or Mr Akesson. I hope that Swedes don't forget where SD come from...  

[eric82oslo]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

[DavidB.]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

[eric82oslo]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)

[windjammer]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)

Well,
I think SD is going to deport a lot of migrants if they come to power, so there is a difference in terms of policies.
Additionnally, a M-SD govt isn't going to stop the rise of the SD, it's better them to join a rightwing government with vague measures to appease the psychological  phobias of their electors rather than ending up in a situation they will continue to rise.