Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[DC Al Fine]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

[eric82oslo]

Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

And interviews in English with each party leader:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/gruppsida.aspx?programid=2054&grupp=27436

My results:

MP: 71%
FI: 69%
V: 67%
S: 59%
L: 46%
C: 44%
KD: 38%
M: 37%
SD: 25%

Sounds almost 100% correct to me. I'm genuinely surprised that C scores so high and L so low though, but I realize that the Norwegian counterparts to these parties are quite different. Swedish C is much more moderate and less agrarian than the Norwegian one, while I suspect Swedish Liberals to be quite a bit to the right of the Norwegian one, even if even the Norwegian Liberals have been moving to the right for the last decade or two and now even is a part of our really quite far-right government. I always score really high with the Norwegian Liberals in Norwegian compasses, mostly because they value the environment higher than almost any other party, but also because they're the only right side party to truely value multiculturalism and all the good sides brought on by immigration, which is not often valued in political discussions sadly, since politics in its rawest sense is about fixing problems, not valuing all the positive aspects of one's culture.

[eric82oslo]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

[eric82oslo]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)

Well,
I think SD is going to deport a lot of migrants if they come to power, so there is a difference in terms of policies.
Additionnally, a M-SD govt isn't going to stop the rise of the SD, it's better them to join a rightwing government with vague measures to appease the psychological  phobias of their electors rather than ending up in a situation they will continue to rise.

You mean an M+S government. It's confusing even to me, as both parties in theory could be shortened to SD.

[DC Al Fine]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.

[eric82oslo]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.

It depends on the size of the tax cuts. Unless you live in the US, tax cuts do not come alone, as politicians in most other countries are reasonably responsible and don't want to create too much of a deficit. That means, in most cases, cutting drastically in welfare programmes and help to the poor, which means poverty rising quite significantly. That's what I meant with crimes against humanity, not the tax cuts themselves. I'm sure that Bernie Sanders would not disagree with my assertion, and I think quite a lot of people, especially the poor, think and believe the same way. I believe the world has two main, existential challenges going forward over the next century or so. One is quite obvious one, dealing with the environment (plastic pollution, global warming, deforestation, desertification and overpopulation being the main threats) and the other one is the unspeakable, ludicrous income inequality in the world today, both between countries and within countries. Both are major crimes against humanity in my opinion. You and others are free to disagree.

Both of these major threats are the main culprits for creating refugees in today's world and both can very easily, and even likely, lead to war. Many scientists have for decades warned that water shortages in parts of the world, especially in the Middle East and Africa, could one day lead to a major regional war. This is just one of tens if not hundreds of examples of consequences from these two threats that could potentially lead to a war breaking out. If not wars are crimes against humanity, then certainly nothing is.

(Btw, it was not the tax cuts, but the income inequality that I meant was the crime against humanity. I guess I wasn't clear enough about that.)

[EPG]

I don't see how anyone could support a party that still harbours lots of neo-Nazis, unless they have no problem with anti-Semitism. Evidence is that when these kind of people get into power, anti-Semitic rhetoric like Soros derangement becomes mainstream.

[reciprocity]

MP 79%
V 74%
FI 67%
S 65%
SD 36%
KD 32%
C 31%
M 29%
L 28%


I guess when you say high speed rail investment is a priority, you get the Greens as #1.

[DavidB.]

I don't see how anyone could support a party that still harbours lots of neo-Nazis, unless they have no problem with anti-Semitism. Evidence is that when these kind of people get into power, anti-Semitic rhetoric like Soros derangement becomes mainstream.

SD are the only party that seek to end mass immigration (i.e. the biggest threat to Jews in Sweden) and the most pro-Israeli party too. In other words, they are the most pro-Jewish party in Sweden. Whether or not there are some people in SD who have questionable views about Jews is irrelevant to me, as long as it is not part of representatives' official rhetoric.

Criticizing Soros is not necessarily antisemitic. Funny how people who defend Soros always play this card when it comes to Israel, but not when it comes to Soros.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

[Former President tack50]

The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

Considering that in Sweden SD seems to be about as toxic as AfD in Germany, it's only fitting that a "grand coalition" would be the best exit.

Though the numbers don't fit for a grand coalition in Sweden, but Sweden is also not afraid of minority governments (unlike Germany) so it could work, or alternatively just bring C and L in.

Though IMO the best option would be for whichever party has the most seats (in this case probably S, but possibly SD) to form a minority government by default. And if the rest want to bring them down, just have a no confidence vote with a viable majority government.

[jaichind]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

[parochial boy]

As a leftist I do believe the wealthy should pay more in taxation, however, we've seen in France during Hollande (75% Tax) how some wealthy french families left France to Belgium, London and Switzerland.
The french treasury lost a lot of revenue as a result..

Unfortunately greed is what motivates some people, Adam Smith talked about it, he praised greed at the beginning of his writings he was later horrified when he saw the enslavement of people and cruel nature of humankind in the Carribbean and Virginia.

I believe the wealthy should pay more, but we also saw time after time when taxes are so high wealthy people would move to another country...

That would be why an organisation that can do something about it, like, say, the EU, would be a good thing...

[DC Al Fine]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.

It depends on the size of the tax cuts. Unless you live in the US, tax cuts do not come alone, as politicians in most other countries are reasonably responsible and don't want to create too much of a deficit. That means, in most cases, cutting drastically in welfare programmes and help to the poor, which means poverty rising quite significantly. That's what I meant with crimes against humanity, not the tax cuts themselves. I'm sure that Bernie Sanders would not disagree with my assertion, and I think quite a lot of people, especially the poor, think and believe the same way. I believe the world has two main, existential challenges going forward over the next century or so. One is quite obvious one, dealing with the environment (plastic pollution, global warming, deforestation, desertification and overpopulation being the main threats) and the other one is the unspeakable, ludicrous income inequality in the world today, both between countries and within countries. Both are major crimes against humanity in my opinion. You and others are free to disagree.

Both of these major threats are the main culprits for creating refugees in today's world and both can very easily, and even likely, lead to war. Many scientists have for decades warned that water shortages in parts of the world, especially in the Middle East and Africa, could one day lead to a major regional war. This is just one of tens if not hundreds of examples of consequences from these two threats that could potential lead to a war breaking out. If not wars are crimes against humanity, then certainly nothing is.

(Btw, it was not the tax cuts, but the income inequality that I meant was the crime against humanity. I guess I wasn't clear enough about that.)

Again, bad policy, even terrible policy (in your opinion) =/= state sponsored genocide. To put them in the same category  trivializes the term.

Criticizing Soros is not necessarily antisemitic. Funny how people who defend Soros always play this card when it comes to Israel, but not when it comes to Soros.

As an aside, I have been criticizing Soros for years and only became aware of his Judaism in like 2017. Guess I'm a raging anti-semite. You should probably stop associating with me

[bigic]

And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.

Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

The problem is that Centre and Liberal voters don't want this (according to Ipsos). Just 25% of Liberal voters want co-operation with Sweden Democrats, the figure for Centre voters is even lower - 8%. Although 64% of Moderate voters and 72% of Christian Democrat voters are in favour - but there is currently no M-SD-KD majority.

[JonHawk]

I notice the foreign media are already shilling hard against Sweden Democrats. I think the debate where the SVT unnecessarily intervened and literally all parties being against SD will work in SD's favor. I think it will be close between SD and S maybe least than a point.

[eric82oslo]

As a leftist I do believe the wealthy should pay more in taxation, however, we've seen in France during Hollande (75% Tax) how some wealthy french families left France to Belgium, London and Switzerland.
The french treasury lost a lot of revenue as a result..

Unfortunately greed is what motivates some people, Adam Smith talked about it, he praised greed at the beginning of his writings he was later horrified when he saw the enslavement of people and cruel nature of humankind in the Carribbean and Virginia.

I believe the wealthy should pay more, but we also saw time after time when taxes are so high wealthy people would move to another country...

I agree, and I believe there are three ways to remedy this. Either by raising taxes on the rich incrementially and over a period of time, instead of doubling them one day to the next for instance. Another way is to raise taxes on luxury items, everything from cars and flights to certain types of unhealthy and environmentally-hostile meat. A third is to work across borders, to strife for a more supranational world. EU has started the process of harmonizing taxes already I believe, let's hope they'll have some success with it. Preferably you should do all three at the same time.

[eric82oslo]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732

[parochial boy]

Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

[jaichind]

Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

I think that is more about SD over-performed their pre-election polls in 2014 by around 2.5% so if you add in that amount to SD's average polling last couple of days you get the low 20s.

[eric82oslo]

Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

I think that is more about SD over-performed their pre-election polls in 2014 by around 2.5% so if you add in that amount to SD's average polling last couple of days you get the low 20s.

I think SD will get between 20% and 25%. I think there's about a 40% chance that they'll become the biggest party.

[jaichind]

On Betfair the odds of SD being the largest party is 3/3.15 which implies that it is around a 1 in 3 shot.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732

Why the hell Norwegian tv streams Swedish tv?

[eric82oslo]

How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732

Why the hell Norwegian tv streams Swedish tv?

Cause we're crazy about Sweden, we even have a joint talk show which has run in both countries for more than ten years now, and before that for about ten years in Norway only hehe. We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar. Also, until we found oil in the 1970s, Norwegians considered themselves Sweden's little brothers and most Norwegians loved watching Swedish TV, including children's programming. It was almost as popular as our own programming. Today of course, Sweden has become our little brothers in many respects, at least economically. As a result, Swedes have poured into our country during the past 15-20 years. Besides Poles, Swedes are our biggest immigrant work force due to our wages being 40% higher and our unemployment almost only half of that in Sweden.

PS: This is only a live stream for the election day broadcast, so it happens at most one day every four years hehe. I'm not sure if this is the first election day live stream or if they've done it for previous elections as well.

[Tender Branson]

Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.