Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The level of analysis in this thread through the campaign has been really low - everyone insisting that whatever they wish to be so is an iron rule, when the reality is that things are quite uncertain. There are a lot of variables, there is a lot of information we don't have and the precedents to make assumptions on aren't fantastic. Would be nice if people were to raise their games slightly when the actual results come in.

[jaichind]

Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Well, less than 3% is considered as accepted statistical error in polls so all but Novus got SD result right.

[eric82oslo]

The level of analysis in this thread through the campaign has been really low - everyone insisting that whatever they wish to be so is an iron rule, when the reality is that things are quite uncertain. There are a lot of variables, there is a lot of information we don't have and the precedents to make assumptions on aren't fantastic. Would be nice if people were to raise their games slightly when the actual results come in.

What exactly are you getting at here? Can you be more specific?

[eric82oslo]

Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.  

I don't think there's a tradition among Scandinavian pollsters to adjust their methodology after elections in order to adjust to the election outcome, like it has been in the US and to a lesser extent perhaps in the UK. One reason might be because pollsters' predictions in Denmark, Sweden and Norway traditionally have been surprisingly accurate, although there always are a couple of parties whose support is off with a couple of percentage points or so. It's usually within 3 percentage points of where pollsters end up landing though.

This time however, we have seen a record high difference when it comes to internet polls such a YouGov and more traditional phone pollsters, especially regarding SD (where the difference has been up to 9-10% at most), but also to a large degree with S and M. So perhaps things will change after this election, if YouGov's numbers will come really close to the actual results.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Will V participate in minority government with SAP and MP if there will be only such option and Alliansen minority cabinet after elections?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.   

They have, here is a Swedish news article about Exit pollsters having adjusted their methodology this year in order for them trying not too underestimate SD again.

[jaichind]

Sweden Democrats leader Åkesson receives death threat: party

https://www.thelocal.se/20180908/sweden-democrats-leader-kesson-receives-death-threat-party

This seems to be from Islamic State



The letter reads

‘We will behead you if you do not withdraw from the election by the end of this week"

Perhaps IS is working secretly with SD ?  This will only push up the SD vote.

[Mike88]

Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

[Aboa]

Will V participate in minority government with SAP and MP if there will be only such option and Alliansen minority cabinet after elections?

SAP minority government, which would offer more leeway for Löfven, would probably be likelier in that case.

[eric82oslo]

Sweden Democrats leader Åkesson receives death threat: party

https://www.thelocal.se/20180908/sweden-democrats-leader-kesson-receives-death-threat-party

This seems to be from Islamic State



The letter reads

‘We will behead you if you do not withdraw from the election by the end of this week"

Perhaps IS is working secretly with SD ?  This will only push up the SD vote.

This could very well be fake, even produced within SD itself. Another and likely possibility is that it's genuine, as it has been obvious more or less since IS was created that there's nothing else they'd rather want than a clash or war between sivilisations, as that will only increase the support for IS. It's in both IS and SD's own interests to heighten this conflict, sadly. It's a win-win for both, and thus a loss for everyone else, the huge silent majority. Honestly, the media should not be reporting on this, just like satellite channels should not have live-streamed every single Trump rally during the 2015 an 2016 election campaign like they did. If we don't want a tabloid society based on fake stories and made up controversies, we should find a way to reduce this kind of journalism, even through laws if that becomes the only viable solution in the end. Even freedom of speech should have limits when it comes to hate rhetoric and hate propaganda. In this case, the hate propanganda is either a joint effort from both SD and IS, or, just as likely, if not more, a hoax perpetrated by SD alone in order to gin up anger and get their voters to the polls.

[eric82oslo]

Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

We can see from these numbers that early voting is up strongly where SD has traditionally had the most support, particularily in Skåne, while surprisingly it has substantially decreased in the regions where SD has had almost no support at all, mainly in the north of Sweden. This should be a huge worrying and warning sign for everyone who doesn't want SD to have a huge election night. If election day voting will look even remotely like this, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that SD will become the largest party. However that is a big if of course.

[Mopsus]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

[eric82oslo]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Do you know anything about Norway and Sweden in order to have an opinion? The question from the Polish user was why on earth Norway would live-stream the election coverage of another national broadcaster. I tried to give him a qualified reasoning for why that would be the case, as even I find it slightly odd and certainly a novelty. How does that make me a racist? If I'm such a racist, why would I have spent my entire life to fight racism?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

[jaichind]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Let’s go Swedish Social Democrats!

[RedPrometheus]

Let’s go Swedish Social Democrats!

[rc18]

Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

We can see from these numbers that early voting is up strongly where SD has traditionally had the most support, particularily in Skåne, while surprisingly it has substantially decreased in the regions where SD has had almost no support at all, mainly in the north of Sweden. This should be a huge worrying and warning sign for everyone who doesn't want SD to have a huge election night. If election day voting will look even remotely like this, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that SD will become the largest party. However that is a big if of course.

It’s bit of a mixed bag but these figures seem broadly in line with what you might expect from the changes in party support since 2014 based on the polls. S areas generally taking the biggest hit, M a bit of both, and SD areas generally over performing. I think it really depends how many of those new voters in some more M leaning counties are voting SD.

[JonHawk]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

[Mopsus]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

[parochial boy]

Let’s go Swedish Democrats!

Can we not do this?

I don't come here to watch 5 year old Americans farting at each other

[eric82oslo]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

The question was what made Sweden and Norway so close that we would live-stream a foreign broadcaster. To ignore the common history of more than a 1,000 years then makes no sense.

[Mopsus]

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

The question was what made Sweden and Norway so close that we would live-stream a foreign broadcaster. To ignore the common history of more than a 1,000 years then makes no sense.

And on a forum full of privileged white males like yourself, you can probably get away with that kind of self-centerdness (unfortunately). But it’s always preferable to practice sensitivity.

[Tender Branson]

Jimmie Åkesson (SD) just told reporters "he feels very optimistic about today and expects up to 30% of the vote."

Whatever this means ...