Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Tender Branson]

Since the government website is slow and breaking down all the time, use the SVT results page:

https://valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html

[Mike88]

2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.

We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...

Yeah, it's a really small sample, but if M is underpolling in their strongholds, it doesn't bode well for them and exit polls could be overperforming, big time, M. But, there's a long way to go yet.

[The Free North]

Since the government website is slow and breaking down all the time, use the SVT results page:

https://valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html

This appears to be the best we have but the lack of a map is disappointing for obvious reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was it expected that the two coalitions would be so close to each other?

Yes - nearly all polls had a Left lead within the MoE, often less than 1pt.

[mgop]

so right wing minority gov with support of sd. because with this result there is no way for left wing government.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

They are not Swedes or Nords then (exception made for the native non-Germanic Sami up North) any more than I would be Khosian if I moved to Cape Town. Swedes, and indeed all ethic groups, have a right to celebrate and preserve their heritage.

Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.

Here's 2014 SVT  prognosis based on exit poll and actual results:

V 6.6  (5.7)
SAP 31.1 (31.2)
MP 7.1 (6.8 )
C 6.5 (6.1)
L 6.0 (5.4)
KD 5.0 (4.6)
M 22.2 (23.2)
SD 10.5 (12.9)
FI 4.0 (3.1)

If this election is like the last few in Sweden, as well as many across Europe, SD will outperform polls due to social desirability bias. That said, they can't be happy with where the exit polls are putting them right now. The international media will make "far right wins big" the headline no matter what, but SD needs a minimum 20% and second place to be satisfied with the result.

Right now, V is the real winner, as they will either be needed to form a left wing government or they will be the primary left wing opposition to a grand coalition, and thus poised to grow even more at the expense of S.

[Omega21]

I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.

There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.

I agree. Shame to see so many Swedes trust the far-right with their lives and vote. People never learn.

Um, I'm pro SD, and I wouldn't call them far-right really...

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.

This link isn't working for me. Is there anywhere else with a live results map?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[The Free North]

Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.

This link isn't working for me. Is there anywhere else with a live results map?

The link has been down for a while.

[JonHawk]

Good to see that horrid tv4 exit poll was wrong

[jaichind]

The count so far is not giving SD the swing it needs to go above 20% and M seems to be over-performing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The count so far is not giving SD the swing it needs to go above 20% and M seems to be over-performing.

Good.

[The Free North]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

[jaichind]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

Yeah, why take the fun out it.  Its like saying, do not bother watching the game since a late minute score might change the result.  Sure, but watching the game has intrinsic entertainment value.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

Election results counts aren't like polling two months from an election - they tend to converge pretty quickly on a result. I'm sure we'll have a clear picture of where things stand within an hour.

[jaichind]

The results so far seems to imply a slight Center-Right lead over the Center-Left plus SD relative under-performance at a result a good deal below 20% and a clear third behind M.

[Former President tack50]

If anyone cares apparently this site has a results map

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

[jaichind]

If anyone cares apparently this site has a results map

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

I think that site is slower than the official results page.

[The Free North]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

Yeah, why take the fun out it.  Its like saying, do not bother watching the game since a late minute score might change the result.  Sure, but watching the game has intrinsic entertainment value.

I very much enjoy the game.

[jaichind]

M seems to be over-performing, V and SD seem to be under-performing.

[Tender Branson]

Good page with maps and changes compared with previous elections:

https://www.di.se/val/

[Diouf]

Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...

[jaichind]

I very much enjoy the game.

Yes, in fact that is why the Brazil way of counting votes really sucks.  They count almost 90% of the result and then release it all at once.  They are taking all the fun out of it.