Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[pilskonzept]

Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

Election results counts aren't like polling two months from an election - they tend to converge pretty quickly on a result. I'm sure we'll have a clear picture of where things stand within an hour.

Not with that sort of neck-to-neck race between the blocks.

Swedes will keep their calm anyway...

[Mike88]

M seems to be over-performing, V and SD seem to be under-performing.

Yeah, it seems that my early reaction was a bit too pessimistic about M. Let's see if the trend continues.

[Tender Branson]

Here is just the map for towns + changes compared with 2014:

http://ext.di.se/val2018/partiresultat.html

It's interesting that SD does not gain more than 13% so far in the cities counted.

Which means they will never go above 25-26% nationally. Most of their gains seems to be in the 8% range, which would point to a 21% result nationally.

1 town (Mariestad) has a decline compared with 2014 so far.

The highest increase so far is in Klippan with +12.5%

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Liberals and Greens are below the 4% threshold right now. Obviously, very few precincts have been counted and they should rise as Stockholm comes in, but it's something to watch out for.

[Tender Branson]

At the bottom of the site you can click on:

Störst/minst stöd = strongest/weakest town for each party

Ökat/minskat mest = biggest gains/losses in each town compared with 2014

Select the party by clicking on their logo.

http://ext.di.se/val2018/partiresultat.html

[Tender Branson]

Only the clickable map:

http://ext.di.se/val2018/index.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

[Omega21]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Should be lit over the next few years, literally lol 🚗🔥

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

oh sweet summer child...

[Former President tack50]

Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...

I personally prefer the former. It's fun to make hot takes from just a handful of polling places at 0.01% counted

[Helsinkian]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Still worst S result in over a century.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Should be lit over the next few years, literally lol 🚗🔥

Seriously though.

[Tender Branson]

About 10% of the 6.000 precincts have been counted, but that is only 6.5% of the expected vote of 6.3 million so far.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the biggest gains for SD so far are in central/southern Sweden near the border to Norway.

The Social Democrats actually have some gains in the Stockholm suburbs and other urban areas.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

On the bright side, alt-right twitter isn't too happy.

[windjammer]

There are some polls giving SD at 16% and others at 19%. Whicj prediction should we trust?

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats are doing much better than I thought.

While there are some moderate losses in the rural areas, they are doing quite well in the urban areas (like the SPÖ last year). I think they could get 26-28% in the end.

At this rate, the SD will only end up around 18-20% in the end.

There are some polls giving SD at 16% and others at 19%. Whicj prediction should we trust?

The SVT one with 19% looks ok.

[Diouf]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

M catching up to S...

[jaichind]

It seems that S and M are doing better than expected.  I assume this is due to tactical voting to stop SD from being first or second largest party.  SD itself is also not doing as well as it would hope.

[BundouYMB]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

[Diouf]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

All the Allianse parties have made a point about not just letting forward another Red-Green government. As I wrote beforehand, we might end there. But based on everything they said in the campaign, the Allianse parties will try to form a government with this result.

[jaichind]

The current count implies the most tiny of leads for the Center-Left bloc with SD most likely around 17.5%-18%.  

[Vosem]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

[Oryxslayer]

The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.