Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
S (Social Democrats)
 
#2
M (Moderate)
 
#3
SD (Swedish Democrats)
 
#4
C (Centre)
 
#5
MP (Green)
 
#6
V (Left)
 
#7
L (Liberals)
 
#8
KD (Christian Democrats)
 
#9
FI (Feminist)
 
#10
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 74066 times)
mvd10
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« Reply #575 on: September 09, 2018, 03:34:10 PM »

Stockholm can turn blue any minute now Cheesy
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #576 on: September 09, 2018, 03:38:31 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2018, 03:55:20 PM by Delegate TheSaint250 »

As of right now, according to this website, Red-Green has a 2-seat lead.

Red-Green: 144
     S: 100
     V: 28
     MP: 16

Alliance: 142
     M: 69
     C: 31
     KD: 23
     L: 19

SD: 63

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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #577 on: September 09, 2018, 03:39:03 PM »

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%
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Diouf
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« Reply #578 on: September 09, 2018, 03:43:16 PM »

The general European trend of fragmentation continues, although at a slightly slower rate than expected. The two biggest parties lose a lot of votes, and both S and M lose them to both side of the value spectre. Both parties lost many voters to SD, but also to V and C respectively. It does not seem like this balancing walk will be easier to walk succesfully in the years ahead.
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afleitch
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« Reply #579 on: September 09, 2018, 03:43:50 PM »

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #580 on: September 09, 2018, 03:48:15 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #581 on: September 09, 2018, 03:50:54 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2018, 03:54:56 PM by Pennsylvania Deplorable »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #582 on: September 09, 2018, 03:51:43 PM »

Not groovy guys.
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mvd10
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« Reply #583 on: September 09, 2018, 03:52:04 PM »

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Well, it's not a shocker that they vote against an anti-migrant party but I'd be interested in their turnout rate. If the Red-Green alliance wins by a narrow margin this might just have tipped it towards them. I do wonder whether the dubious S facebook posts where they accused M and other right-wing parties of wanting to take away migrant children without a reason played a role. Probably not though, I don't think that many people read them (and the ones who heard about it probably knew it was a irrelevant local politician spouting nonsense).

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.

Economics, economics, economics. I mean, obviously a disproportionally poor group isn't going to vote for European centre-right liberals. Even if the GOP becomes more accepting of minorities they're still not going to get much higher than 25-30% simply because minority households have much lower incomes.
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afleitch
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« Reply #584 on: September 09, 2018, 03:52:27 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.

Hence 'voting against'; if you can shop around you can shop around.
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afleitch
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« Reply #585 on: September 09, 2018, 03:53:16 PM »

Part of me hopes the SD now go off the rails a little.
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Omega21
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« Reply #586 on: September 09, 2018, 03:54:40 PM »

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Lol

Reply to mod > Get reply deleted

You're such a strong character. When you don't know what to say, just silence the other side, because, you know, silencing the other side is not bad if you think their thoughts are invalid.
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reciprocity
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« Reply #587 on: September 09, 2018, 03:56:54 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?
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afleitch
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« Reply #588 on: September 09, 2018, 03:59:54 PM »

The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Lol

Reply to mod > Get reply deleted

You're such a strong character. When you don't know what to say, just silence the other side, because, you know, silencing the other side is not bad if you think their thoughts are invalid.

Whit?
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Diouf
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« Reply #589 on: September 09, 2018, 04:00:36 PM »

Jimmie Åkesson, before the coughing sat in,:"Now it is up to you, Ulf Kristersson, do you choose Stefan Löfven or Jimmie Åkesson?"
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« Reply #590 on: September 09, 2018, 04:06:42 PM »

Do we have any results for the smaller parties? All I've heard about is the FI crashing, but nothing about the AfS, PP, or NRM.
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Diouf
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« Reply #591 on: September 09, 2018, 04:10:47 PM »

143-143 between the blocks in seat distribution right now!
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parochial boy
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« Reply #592 on: September 09, 2018, 04:11:08 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Maybe they're just not as obsessed with identity politics as you are?
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Izzyeviel
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« Reply #593 on: September 09, 2018, 04:24:12 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?
Trump companies do what's profitable? Oh, the horror! If you think companies undercutting Americans with foreign workers is bad, then you should logically have supported Trump's campaign promises on immigration, which, had Paul Ryan not shot them down to focus on tax cuts for his donors, would have forced corporations (including Trump's) to pay a better wage.

Anyway, back to Sweden.

Trump believes that and still hires cheap workers from abroad. If you really believed that yourself, you logically should've supported the Democrats and their plan to introduce a minimum wage which would dramatically reduce the need for companies to hire cheap foreign labour.

Anyway, back to Sweden...
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Diouf
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« Reply #594 on: September 09, 2018, 04:32:44 PM »

Kristersson:"The Red-Green government should never have been formed. Now it's time for it to go". Urges Löfven to resign, and let the Speaker of Parliament start the consultation for forming a new government. As expected, he repeats points from election: The Allianse will stay together, and it is the biggest government alternative.
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reciprocity
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« Reply #595 on: September 09, 2018, 04:35:41 PM »

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?
Trump companies do what's profitable? Oh, the horror! If you think companies undercutting Americans with foreign workers is bad, then you should logically have supported Trump's campaign promises on immigration, which, had Paul Ryan not shot them down to focus on tax cuts for his donors, would have forced corporations (including Trump's) to pay a better wage.

Anyway, back to Sweden.

So you are saying the Trump is hypocrite? OK then. Businesses do not have to use foreign labour... they can if they want to decide who they hire. If Trump was so heartbroken, he would take the hit and hire Americans instead but he doesn't.
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Beezer
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« Reply #596 on: September 09, 2018, 04:39:14 PM »

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #597 on: September 09, 2018, 04:40:22 PM »

I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #598 on: September 09, 2018, 04:41:03 PM »

Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #599 on: September 09, 2018, 04:42:14 PM »

Shocking result here as the citizens of Sweden decide at the last minute to give a slight boost to the party which in Sweden has been traditionally associated with order and normality in the face of a surge by another party they see as radical and dangerous. Absolutely incomprehensible.
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