Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?

[Aboa]

Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?

No they still have 22 seats in 13 municipalities. Most importantly in Stockholm.

https://www.dagenssamhalle.se/nyhet/farre-mandat-fi-forsvinner-fran-fyra-fullmaktige-sparr-satter-stopp-23812

Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.

[Diouf]

All votes have now been counted, and the distribution is still 144 for the Red-Greens, 143 for Allianse parties and 62 for Sweden Democrats. This the preliminary result. Friday and during the weekend, there will be a recount of all votes, and then the official result will be announced. However, normally this will only change very few votes.

[DavidB.]

Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.

Roma/travellers voting for Schyman?

[The Lord Marbury]

Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.

Roma/travellers voting for Schyman?

Uh no, that's just plain ludicrous.

An actually believable explanation could be that Annelie Nordström, the former president of Sweden's largest trade union, Kommunal, used to be a county and municipal politician in Vilhelmina during the 90s when she was a Social Democrat. She may still hold on to a decent amount of popularity in her old home town, that she carried with her when she joined FI.

Then there's other factors, for instance if they campaigned on some big local issue. And of course in small places like Vilhelmina where a turnout of 82% only amounts to less than 4500 votes, how well known and popular the party's candidates are in the community is pretty important.

[DavidB.]

It may well be a completely incorrect suggestion, and I immediately accept that it is, but I don't see why this idea was "plain ludicrous". Wouldn't be the first time that a marginalized community prefers a candidate from their own ethnic group in a party claiming to stand up for them.

[The Lord Marbury]

It may well be a completely incorrect suggestion, and I immediately accept that it is, but I don't see why this idea was "plain ludicrous". Wouldn't be the first time that a marginalized community prefers a candidate from their own ethnic group in a party claiming to stand up for them.

It's ludicrous to suggest that there is a significant Roma community in Vilhelmina or pretty much any of the small municipalities in the inland of Norrland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not after they were all sterilised, no...

[DavidB.]

Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.

[Ethelberth]

Correct answer to Vilhelmina question seems to be Inez Abrahamson, rural feminist and journalist.

[The Lord Marbury]

Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.

I guess I'm just starting to lose my patience with people from the alt-right raving about how Sweden is doomed and how the country is going to collapse, but when you actually start talking to them a bit more you realize that they pretty much know nothing at all about Sweden and get most of their information from Twitter and Breitbart.

Sorry about that.

[DavidB.]

Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.

I guess I'm just starting to lose my patience with people from the alt-right raving about how Sweden is doomed and how the country is going to collapse, but when you actually start talking to them a bit more you realize that they pretty much know nothing at all about Sweden and get most of their information from Twitter and Breitbart.

Sorry about that.

Cool, but I'm not some uninformed person or an alt-righter who gets his information from Twitter and Breitbart and knows "pretty much nothing at all about Sweden." You're really barking up the wrong tree. Almost all of what I say about Sweden I would say about the Netherlands too.

Though I'll readily admit that yes, I have no idea where Roma communities in Sweden would live. But it's not as if I was "raving" or even claiming something in the first place - note the question mark in my initial comment.

[Diouf]

The official results are now out, and the recount did not change anything.

Social Democrats 100
Left Party 28
Green Party 16

Red-Greens combined 144

Moderates 70
Center Party 31
Christian Democrats 22
Liberals 20

Allianse combined 143

Sweden Democrats 62

The new parliament will open on 25 September, but the day before the new Speaker will be elected. This position is quite central as the Speaker has taken over the position in government formation that would traditionally belong to the monarch. The Speaker talks to representatives of the parties and names formateurs, informateurs or PM candidates. In the first two round of voting, a MP needs more than half of the votes to be elected Speaker. If that doesn't happen, the top-two votegetters from the second round will face off in the third round, where the one with the most votes is elected Speaker.

If Stefan Löfven does not resign as PM, one of the first jobs of the new Speaker will be to arrange a confidence vote about the PM. This confidence vote must be held within two weeks of parliament opening. It is important to note that in order for a PM to lose the confidence of the house, a majority of MPs need to actively vote against the PM. So any blank vote is de facto a declaration of confidence in the PM. Based on their statements in the campaign, it currently seems unlikely that the Allianse parties will prop up Stefan Löfven for four more years. Similarly, SD will almost certainly vote against Löfven. So Löfven either resigns or is voted out, and then consultations with the Speaker starts about finding a new PM. The Speaker can then present a new PM candidate for parliament, who will face a confidence vote. Again it requires a majority of MPs to vote actively against a candidate. The Speaker is allowed four chances to present a PM-candidate for parliament. If they all fail to be accepted, there will be a new election within three months.

[parochial boy]

And AFS only got 0.3%

Is that one of the worst ratios of level of attention to actual result ever?

[DavidB.]

Wow, yes, terrible AfS result.

Ultimate turnout was 87.1%, up 1.3% from 2014. Pretty impressive.

[JonHawk]

Looks like SD was the largest party in 31 municipalities and 20% and above in 154 out of a total of 290  swedish municipalities. Pretty good.

[Lord Halifax]

And AFS only got 0.3%

Where can you see that? Seems Others are lumped together on both val.se and in the media.

[parochial boy]

And AFS only got 0.3%

Where can you see that? Seems Others are lumped together on both val.se and in the media.

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html

Scroll down to about  the middle of the page

[EPG]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

[mvd10]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

[adma]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

I prefer to call them "electoral incels".

[bigic]

In my opinion the poor result of AfS is good because it shows that there is almost no space in Sweden for a party right of SD. SD did worse than predicted, which is also good, but they did better than in 2014. which is bad.

[EPG]

I would say more that it was a tense election about future & leadership, where it was considered too costly to risk a protest vote for small parties like Feminist Initiative.

[Diouf]

Expressen poll of 609 Moderate councillors and local party leaders. Should the party negotiate with SD if it's necessary to gain power? 324 (53%) says yes, 285 (47%) says no. So a narrow majority is opposed to the current party line. Polling of Moderate voters tend to show an even bigger share willing to cooperate with SD.

Dagens Industri newspaper reports that the Allianse will propose Moderate MP Andreas Norlén as Speaker. The 45-year old has been a MP since 2006, and led the Constitutional Committee in the last term. Social Democrats so far state that they will try to reach a cross-bloc deal about the Speaker; a deal that would hopefully lead to a cross-bloc government negotiation as well. If the Allianse parties stay together in this question, then Norlén will very likely end up as speaker. In the last round of voting, you would expect SD to go for him over a left-wing candidate.

[DL]

Expressen poll of 609 Moderate councillors and local party leaders. Should the party negotiate with SD if it's necessary to gain power? 324 (53%) says yes, 285 (47%) says no. So a narrow majority is opposed to the current party line. Polling of Moderate voters tend to show an even bigger share willing to cooperate with SD.

So if the Moderates did in fact start to negotiate with SD, what would happen A. to all those Moderate bigwigs who are totally opposed to any cooperation with SD? B. What happens to the Alliance between the M and the Liberals and Centre parties?