Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Gustaf]

These poll questions are a bit dubious (they're all qualified with "if necessary") and have notably low response rates.

There is no majority for an M+SD cooperation so that ain't happening. What could happen maybe is an M/M+KD government somewhat propped up by passive SD support or something. But we'll see.

Speaker election is step one, announcements of candidates today. Seems like Alliance will rally behind a well-respected M guy. I Think he probably wins. More interesting will be the challenge from V to SD for second deputy speaker. Traditionally that post goes to the 3rd biggest party (which is SD) so SD has it currently. But there is no formal rule and it's a secret ballot election.

[Diouf]

The Alliance has officially announced that they are proposing the aforementioned Andreas Norlén as Speaker. After the failure to find cross-bloc agreement on a Speaker, the Social Democrats have proposed MP Åsa Lindestam as Speaker. She has been a MP since 2002 and was deputy chair of the Defence Committee in the recent term. It is not yet clear whether other parties will put forward candidates, perhaps SD, but in the end it will almost certainly be a vote between the two above candidates in the last round. Sweden Democrats will likely end up supporting Norlén, but they could play it tough and demand that the Allianse votes for SD's Söder as second deputy in return.

The Allianse have stated that they won't vote in the second deputy speaker contest. The Social Democrats were a bit more fluffy, but generally stated they supported the normal principle of distributing the deputy seats after size. If they support the Left Party candidate, she will win, but if they also lay down their votes, SD will win.

Both blocs childishly continues to the support the principle of not allowing any SD MPs to become chairs or deputy chairs of committees.

[Intell]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

Wealthy surburban white males are more for V and SD?

Otherwise this forum has to be the least representative of its demographics then.

[mvd10]

Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

Wealthy surburban white males are more for V and SD?

Otherwise this forum has to be the least representative of its demographics then.

They're not (I'm going to assume wealthy suburbans in Sweden are disproportionally for M or L, but slightly less so this election). But as far as I know Atlas skews heavily white, male, suburban and wealthy (and LGBT I guess), yet in European polls the right-wing populists and the left always win. I guess the right-wing populists do so well because of American Republicans following Trump and just voting for the ''Trumpist'' option in European countries even though they'd normally be part of a more establishment right-wing party, especially the ones that didn't even vote for Trump in the primaries but support him now. Or maybe centre-right voters are just less idealistic and less inclined to join online political forums lol. Right-wing populists believe the globalists are out to get them, left-wing people tend to be fairly idealistic in general but idk about your average VVD/M/Venstre voter lol.

[EPG]

I would guess this forum is most missing women, people with children and families, and retired people. Those are pretty big demographics in European elections.

[parochial boy]

I think the demographic "people who talk about politics on the internet" as a whole tends to massively overrepresent the far left and far right parties - it's not just an atlas phenomenon

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The average Swedish voter will care about things that will be largely irrelevant to a foreign observer on atlas - concrete things like the conditions in the local hospital or whatever, rather than less tangible concepts that appear in overseas news.

[Diouf]

Sweden Democrats have announced that they will vote for Moderate Andreas Norlén as speaker on Monday. This means Norlén will have the support of a majority and be elected Speaker. With a centre-right Speaker, he will likely try to arrange the PM confidence vote as quickly as possible. Perhaps already on Tuesday. Stefan Löfven will almost certainly lose this vote, so the question is whether he will resign before the vote or want to face the vote in parliament. If he resigns, he avoids the humiliation of being voted out which could also be used as an argument by the Speaker to not give him the first chance in government negotiations. However, the Social Democrats seem very fond of the message that "The Allianse is cooperating with the evil racists in SD", so Löfven might try to double down on that message by letting the Allianse and SD vote him out.

[Gustaf]

Speaker election is happening right now. SD has said they will vote for the M-candidate while the Red-Green will vote for a Social Democrat. Speaker elections are done by secret ballot notably.

By custom, the deputy speakers are awarded based on party size but there is no formal rule. This time V is challenging SD for second deputy speaker. S has said they will vote for the V candidate. The Alliance has said they Think SD should get it but interpreted this as they will abstain.

[Gustaf]

Andreas Norrlén from M won the speaker election with all Alliance + SD voting for him. The Social Democrats got deputy speaker uncontested without vote. After lunch there will be a face-off between SD and V for second deputy speaker.

[Diouf]

The Social Democrats voted for Lotta Johnsson Fornarve from the Left Party, while most of the Alliance MPs abstained (although 20 voted for Söder), so the Left Party candidate won the role as second deputy Speaker. Jimmie Åkesson understably angry: "This is so weak, particularly from the Moderates. We allow their candidate to become Speaker, and then they allow a Communist to become deputy speaker insted of Söder. That is weak." SD proposed Söder as third deputy Speaker, but of course parliament chose the Centre Party candidate.
After this humilation, I think SD will and should take an even harder stance in government negotations. Vote against all governments, that is not based on direct negotiations with them.

As expected, Norlén has arranged the confidence vote in Löfven as quickly as possible. It will be tomorrow 09.30, where Löfven will in all likelyhood be voted out.

[Diouf]

I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

I don't really see how SD benefits from letting Löfven continue. There will be more left wing policies, and the Allianse could attack SD for letting it happen. If SD says they will vote no to every government that isn't based on negotiations with them, they will get one of three options, who all seem fairly good. Either a government based on negotiations with them (unlikely), another painful compromise between the two Blocs or parts of them (quite likely), or a new election (not that likely, but shouldn't probably be ruled out).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

There is no reason for them not to vote against Löfven in the confidence vote. Kristersson won't automatically become Prime Minister (it's not a vote between two candidates)  so SD has the opportunity to vote out Löfven with-out having to approve Kristersson if the Speaker suggests him as the new Prime Minister.

Though it would be funny to see SD reward the government for actively voting against Björn Söder by allowing them to carry on until the budget vote in late November. I mean they're not the sharpest bunch but... that would be something.

   

[Former President tack50]

I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

There is no reason for them not to vote against Löfven in the confidence vote. Kristersson won't automatically become Prime Minister (it's not a vote between two candidates)  so SD has the opportunity to vote out Löfven with-out having to approve Kristersson if the Speaker suggests him as the new Prime Minister.

Though it would be funny to see SD reward the government for actively voting against Björn Söder by allowing them to carry on until the budget vote in late November. I mean they're not the sharpest bunch but... that would be something.    

If Löfven gets voted out, who becomes the interim prime minister? Does Löfven get to stay until there's a new government?

Also, does no budget mean a snap election is mandatory? Or is it just one of those things that are political custom but not written into law anywhere?

[Diouf]

Löfven loses confidence vote

142 voted for him to stay as PM, 204 voted for him to leave. 3 were not present. Löfven will now continue as an interim PM.

[DavidB.]

Moderate MP Hanif Bali voted against Löfven with his middle finger.
https://twitter.com/hanifbali/status/1044494044955648000

[Diouf]

The splits in the Allianse are becoming clearer in public:

Ebba Busch Thor (KD):"We have to stop this feeling where we are so insecure about our own judgements and own policies, that we are frigthened by the sheer existence of SD in parliament. I stand for our policies and our judgements, no matter who votes for us. Therefore I'm prepared to sit in a government, even if it takes support from SD.

Jan Björklund (L): "There is no such thing as passive support from SD. Because the Allianse is smaller than the Red-Green Bloc, it would require support from SD in many votes and they are not gonna do that for free. That situation would require active negotiations and agreements with SD, and I don't want to give them that power."

[bigic]

Isn't the Alliance's position that they are larger than the Red-Greens because Left Party didn't participate in the previous government?

[Diouf]

Isn't the Alliance's position that they are larger than the Red-Greens because Left Party didn't participate in the previous government?

Well, yeah their talking point was that "The Allianse is clearly the biggest government alternative" because the Left Party was not in the government. But in terms of parliamentary arithmetics, the reality of the oneseat deficit will be obvious at each vote. So as Björklund hints, you would need active support from SD to win votes every time the Red-Green unites their vote against it. Björklund and others in the Allianse are then talking about support for S for an Allianse government to avoid this scenario, but it would of course be completely bizarre for S to participate in such a solution.

[Diouf]

Speaker Andreas Norlén has announced that he will start talks on government formation on Thursday. Here he will meet representatives of all parties for 45 minutes each, in order according to the size of the parties.

[Diouf]

Gustav Fridolin, co-chair of Greens, says the party would prefer a S-C-L-MP government. Such a government would have only 167 seats, so it would require some of the other parties to not vote against it in the confidence vote. But Fridolin hopes that V and/or M/KD would do that. Fridolin argues that such a government would be quite stable in terms of passing a budget, since its budget proposal could only be defeated if V, M, KD and SD all vote for the same opposition budget, which is unlikely to happen. In day-to-day politics it would then have to make deal with V or M/KD to pass legislation.

Tobias Billström, Moderate parliamentary group leader, rejects the idea of a M-KD government with support from SD. Such a government would have 154 seats. He says that even if it is allowed to govern by other parties, it would have grave difficulties getting a budget passed. I'm not as sure that the budgets will be a problem; it would require C or L voting for the same opposition budget as all Red-Green parties. However, it will probably be difficult to avoid a majority against in the confidence vote if it's clear that the government will negotiate with SD. If a M-KD government is to be accepted, it must in some way feel acceptable to both C/L and SD, which is the difficult part. Could also be difficult in day-to-day legislation.

Newspaper Expressen reports about internal problems between the Allianse parties and inside several of them. Busch Thor's comments about governing with support from SD angered C and L, but KD and some in M accuse these two parties of giving up on the Allianse to join the Red-Greens. Inside M, there is dissatisfaction with the way SD was handled. Hanif Bali and a dozen of other MPs criticized that the Allianse would not vote for Söder and give SD their deserved Committee chairmenships. Apparently the M leadership said it had been a necessary sacrifice to give to C and L. However, several MPs went against party line, and voted actively for Söder.
Inside L, there is dissatisfaction with the election result, and many believe Björklund must be replaced. He has led the party since 2007. Former Minister of Equality and Integration, Nyamko Sabuni, has been mentioned several times as a replacement.
Inside C, several voices accuse Annie Löof of running the party as a "one-woman show" with no dialogue or discussion about how the party should act. The party had a decent, but not as great as expected election, so this is probably the less serious problem. But if the party enters into government/supports a S-led government, such dissatisfactions could quickly become very important.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, pretty tense times at the moment. I still struggle to see L become a support party for S. It'd be virtually guaranteed electoral suicide.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah, pretty tense times at the moment. I still struggle to see L become a support party for S. It'd be virtually guaranteed electoral suicide.

So would participating in a government in need of active support from the Sweden Democrats as well though.

The real nut to crack in the government formation is that not a single government can be formed that doesn't result in a major electoral hammering for at least one party. Which party will be the one that sacrifices itself in order for us to have a government?

Maybe the Christian Democrats. They're the ones who're big on the whole "died for our sins" thing after all.   

[EPG]

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I think maybe we just skip the government part completely. Worked well enough for Belgium that one time. No government that can raise taxes, no government that can have weird IT-related scandals, no government that is dependent on either the radical left or the radical right. Sounds pretty good to me to be honest.

There is no legal time limit on how long the Speaker can wait before using his four tries to get a Prime Minister approved. Why not use the fourth and last try in the summer of 2222.