Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Gustaf]

I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

[DL]

I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

Why would that be? Its not exactly unheard of for small "l" liberal parties in Europe to ally themselves with social democrats in coalitions. In Denmark the small "l" liberal Radical party has a long history of participating in coalitions with the Social Democrats and in Norway the Centre party is always aligned with the Labour Party. In Germany it would not exactly be unheard of for the FDP to make a deal with the Social Democrats and in the UK no one would be shocked if the Lib Dems made a deal with Labour (maybe not with Corbyn but certainly if the party was led by a more mainstream figure). In the Netherlands the D66 typically backs PvdA led governments etc...

Maybe its about time that there was a new paradigm in Swedish politics whereby instead of the rigid Alliance vs Left blocks (complicated by the SDs) - we get something a bit more flexible and where people will vote C or L for different reasons than before. Maybe they want to get some influence within a S led coalition and there is a large enough block of voters who are socially liberal and would rather vote for a centrist party that will be a moderating influence on a S government than be a party that supports a hard-right M government that has a tacit arrangement with the neo-Nazis in the SD.

Sometimes for things to stay the same, things are going to have to change

[DL]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

[Oryxslayer]

The problem with SD as I understand it is that they are a untrustworthy negotiator. While we place them on the far right, like every other anti-migrant party, their views cross the spectrum and make either bloc really not want to work with them. The Right sees SD's economic and day to day policies as basically S-lite, but only for Swedes. This won't work at all for their tax-cutting day-to-day policies. The left meanwhile sees the anti-migrant pro-swede policies of SD as unworkable within their platform of inclusion. This also ignores the fact that multiple parties, including the deciding L and C, were elected on fiercely anti-SD platforms. There is presently no workable government that would willingly include SD, which is why that option is off the table.

In a similar fashion though, I have long felt that V is what will prevent a Left+L+C govt. Like the SD, they would probably be outside the govt, but still have key influence over policy thanks to their votes. Its hard to see why parties on the fiscal right would sell out and accept a govt that tacitly has support from former communists. The only way I could see this working is if C+L got a larger presence in govt - say the Loof PM proposal, but with V specifically demanding Lofven, this I suspect will fail.

Which might mean new elections, and begs the question will SD go up or down. At first glace it seems obvious the anti-establishment parties will increase, but then you remember voters in these 'tied govt' scenarios are semi-rational actors. Like in Spain, voters might migrate from the unwavering parties (albeit temporarily) towards their preferred govt to try and break the impasse.

I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

I think he sees the L vote tottering at 4%, and prefers entering govt with the Left and having some influence, to losing votes in a subsequent election and falling out of parliament - resulting in no influence.

[Omega21]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

So, democracy is only good if you get the outcome you want, and if not you simply ignore the people?

Yeah, democracy fails sometimes, but it's the best thing we have, or would you like one-party rule better?

Plus, comparing the SD to the NSDAP is not really realistic, not even in the current political spectrum where "right-wing" means "ultra far right nationalistic white supremacist".

[DL]

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.

I agree with most of your points but your conclusion is wrong, at least right now. As I said above, both the Left and the Right see the Sweden Dems as having too much of the other side to be a loyal partner. They are not really a radical right party, more a anti-immigrant left party. Two, the liberals won't join a SD govt, that's a recipe for party collapse. So the M+KD+SD lacks a majority. The third thing as you pointed out is small majorities support negotiation. Thats not a recipe for success. That's a recipe for losing the half that opposes SD to C - it already kinda happened when M tried to tack right and say they were open to SD supporting govt.

[Coffein00]

Centre Party open to Löfven returning as Swedish PM:

http://www.thelocal.se/20181127/centre-party-open-to-lofven-returning-as-swedish-pm

But some of the demands, which are not very detailed represented in that English article seem unacceptable for S and apparently its an non-negotiable offer, take it or leave it.

We will see, there are still some days left, but this could be an "alibi"-offer, so that C doesn't get the blame if there are new elections.

edit: Liberals would tolerate Löfven, too, and have also a list of demands:
https://www.thelocal.se/20181128/liberals-offer-conditional-support-for-lfven-as-swedish-pm

Left-party says they would withdraw their support if the demands of C and L would be fulfilled:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/sweden-s-lofven-torn-between-left-and-right-in-bid-to-form-government-10977944

[Diouf]

Yeah, both C and L have now made wishlistes with every rightwing economic proposal they could dream up. There was very little mention of immigration wishes (where the centre-left parties are closer), so the two parties chose the issues where the difference between them and the left wing parties are the biggest. The question now is whether this is just Part 16 of C and L's attempt to drag out the process before eventually accepting a S-led government, or whether it's a pretense to make it look like they tried to negotiate. If it is the former, which I would tend to think, negotiations should take some time. There will be a lot of watering down of the proposals if S is to accept them. V is of course very critical of C and L's demands. It seems that L, due to the internal opposition, are only considering laying down their votes in the PM vote, not join the government. So if we get a Löfven-government, it is probably only S and MP that will actually vote for it while V, C and L all lay down their votes.

[Oryxslayer]

If the demands are met, V considers the govt too right wing. If the demands aren't met, L+C leaves. I don't see how this isn't designed to fail.

[Diouf]

If the demands are met, V considers the govt too right wing. If the demands aren't met, L+C leaves. I don't see how this isn't designed to fail.

Sure, it's a very real possibility and could easily happen because they are so far apart. However, the fact that the parties only need to lay down their votes probably makes it easier. Also C and L have moved very slowly in this process, but the direction has been clear. V could say that a S-minority government is in the end the least poor option, and that they will with a heavy heart lay down their votes (to ensure no power for SD), but they will fight all the right-wing economic proposals every way. C and L could lay down their votes if they get some concessions, and argue that they have succesfully managed to keep the two extreme parties out of influence and has managed to get a government based on the centre of politics.

[Diouf]

Swedish Radio report that L have called a meeting for its party council, the decisive party organ, on Tuesday. It is expected that the party council will then have to make a decision on a proposed deal with the Social Democrats in terms of government formation and the 2019 budget.

[Diouf]

Annie Lööf will hold a press conference at 10.00, and is expected to announce C's position on the formation of a Löfven government. The party committee and parliamentary group met yesterday to discuss the situation.

[Sestak]

Lööf says C’s will be voting no on a Löfven government, ending the possibility of an S government backed by V, C, and L (and really the possibility of any S government at all).

[Diouf]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

[Omega21]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

[The Lord Marbury]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

[Omega21]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?

[The Lord Marbury]

So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?

SD and Jimmie Åkesson have said numerous time that they want to form a "conservative bloc" with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats and they voted in favour of an M-KD government just a few weeks ago. I don't think they'd participate in such a government even if asked (which they won't be) as they enjoy their outsider role quite a bit, but they'd be happy to support it in parliament. Right now it seems like their overarching strategy is to do everything possible to create further divides between M and KD on the one hand and C and L on the other, in order to create the conservative bloc they desire.

[DL]

This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

What if the Liberals and the Greens (and maybe even the Christian Democrats) fall under the 4% threshold?!

[Diouf]

There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.

[MAINEiac4434]

There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.

S, V, MP maybe L voting in favor, the rest voting against I'm guessing?

[Diouf]

There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.

S, V, MP maybe L voting in favor, the rest voting against I'm guessing?

L is also voting against Löfven. He announced he would like to form a government with MP. So I guess S, V and MP voting for, all others against.

Today is the budget debate. Since no agreement was reached on a centre-left government, the M-KD budget for 2019 will very likely end up being approved

[Diouf]

The M-KD budget was approved as expected. Vote on Löfven on Friday, while he himself is at the EU council.