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| | |-+  Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
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Poll
Question: ?
S (Social Democrats)   -43 (25.7%)
M (Moderate)   -18 (10.8%)
SD (Swedish Democrats)   -46 (27.5%)
C (Centre)   -9 (5.4%)
MP (Green)   -7 (4.2%)
V (Left)   -28 (16.8%)
L (Liberals)   -6 (3.6%)
KD (Christian Democrats)   -5 (3%)
FI (Feminist)   -1 (0.6%)
Other   -4 (2.4%)
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Total Voters: 167

Author Topic: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote  (Read 50830 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #850 on: December 20, 2018, 11:04:20 am »

The Speaker has presented his timetable for the next steps in the process. He has given the party leaders more time to think things through during Christmas, but he says that there is a special responsibility on the two PM candidates, Löfven and Kristersson, who will have to report to him once a week (28 December, 4 January and 10 January). Then on 14 January, the Speaker will meet all party leaders. Immediately after those meetings, he will present his next PM candidate to parliament, who will then be voted on 16 January. If this vote fails, he will present his 4th and final candidate on 21 January, who will be voted on 23 January. New elections would therefore happen at 21 April at latest.
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Diouf
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« Reply #851 on: December 23, 2018, 05:13:09 am »

In the recent Ipsos poll, KD (8%) is bigger than C (7%) while both MP and L is right at the threshold. S+V+MP clearly bigger than the Allianse (44-37). C's migration spokesperson, Johanna Jönsson, has said that "I personally would prefer to find a solution with Löfven rather than with Kristersson in this situation. It's very difficult for me to imagine letting forward an ever more conservative M in a situation where they are constantly pressed to go further right by its voters, own politicians and other parties."

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Kosmos
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« Reply #852 on: December 25, 2018, 03:15:56 pm »

Most polls have KD in the 6-7% range though, and C usually (but not always) above 8%. So I am a little skeptical of the Ipsos poll for now. But time will tell.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #853 on: December 30, 2018, 03:42:37 am »

If there is no government formed by Jan. 23rd, will new elections automatically be held on April 21st ?

Or is there a possibility for them to be held together with the EU elections on May 26th ?

I assume that new general elections would have to be called immediately, but it would be better to hold them together with the EU elections because A) it would save money and B) turnout in the EU elections would be much higher than the usual low 45% even in Sweden, because general elections typically have 85-90% turnout.
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Diouf
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« Reply #854 on: December 30, 2018, 05:47:01 am »

Inizio poll also has KD booming; at 8.2%. C at 8.4% and L at 3.2%. Clear red-green lead in this one as well.

An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #855 on: December 30, 2018, 06:51:59 am »

An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.

I already thought that there would be a legal hurdle here ...

Maybe the Speaker should consider eliminating the Jan. 16 PM vote and set a final one in late February then, so that if this fails as well, the election can be held together with the EU elections.
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Diouf
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« Reply #856 on: December 30, 2018, 07:16:41 am »

An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.

I already thought that there would be a legal hurdle here ...

Maybe the Speaker should consider eliminating the Jan. 16 PM vote and set a final one in late February then, so that if this fails as well, the election can be held together with the EU elections.

I think the Speaker has bundled the two votes together to ensure there's not too much tactical thinking between candidates (wanting to be in the 4th PM vote where the pressure on those voting you down is the biggest). Instead the third vote is now the crunch vote, and the 4th looks more like a procedural vote to proceed to elections. There are basically only the same two government options, which have been obvious for a while and which have both been voted down already. L and especially C have drawn out the process, but now have to choose one option and allow it in the third vote or neither and vote no twice procedurally.

If there's a postponement, I think it would be of the third vote and would be because negotiations were flowing very positively, but needing a day or two more. So such a scenario would likely end up without a new election anyway.
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mubar
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« Reply #857 on: December 30, 2018, 01:06:20 pm »

This latest possible day of early election, 21 April 2019, is Easter Sunday though. In the middle of long holiday period (Sweden gives Good Friday and Easter Monday as public holidays too), it's about the worst possible day to hold an election. So I would certainly think that Sunday 14 April is the last realistic election date. Or maybe even earlier such as Sunday 7 April, since quite many people must have already booked long vacations around Easter, so calling a snap election for such a holiday season could negatively affect turnout and availability of election officials.

It wouldn't do much good to try to postpone the snap election to May if it must be held anyway. People are already upset that a proper budget couldn't be passed by the end of the year, dragging the govt formation for additional months wouldn't be good for stability. But having a parliamentary re-run in April and then the European election in May probably lowers the turnout in both, and as the famously high electoral participation boosts the trust and legitimacy of Swedish democracy, a potential drop in turnout seems scary.

Anyway, Sunday 14 April is also the date of Finnish parliamentary election. It would certainly be interesting to have our neighbours vote at the same time. Maybe we can start syncing all our elections as a sign of how close our nations are? Wink
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Gustaf
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« Reply #858 on: January 07, 2019, 10:18:34 am »

The Liberals met with both PM contenders today, one after the other. But Everything remains very secretive.
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« Reply #859 on: January 11, 2019, 05:26:26 am »

Looks like Centre and the Liberals are now supporting Löfven.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #860 on: January 11, 2019, 06:07:35 am »

Looks like Centre and the Liberals are now supporting Löfven.

Nothing has been settled yet but it looks like it could be heading in that direction. Aftonbladet reported a few hours ago that S, C, L and MP have reached an agreement where the Social Democrats have gone further in compromises with the Centre Party over employment and housing policy than in the failed attempt from December. The Greens will get back the air travel tax which was scrapped when the M-KD budget won the vote last month, while the Liberals will presumably get the same tax cut for high earners that was in the agreement from December, along with a plan for how the school system can be nationalized. All parties except for S are also in favour of reintroducing family reunification for refugees, though the Greens have been the driving force, and that also seems to be part of the agreement.

The Centre Party's advisory board will have final say for their party and will make their decision tomorrow, though the parliamentary group is meeting today and could announce what decision they will recommend the board to take as early as this afternoon. The Liberals will make their decision on Sunday through their party council, which will be broadcast live on SVT 2 starting at 12.00 CET.
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Diouf
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« Reply #861 on: January 11, 2019, 08:38:42 am »

Lööf has called a press conference for 15.30.
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Diouf
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« Reply #862 on: January 11, 2019, 09:52:27 am »

Annie Löof announces that C's parliamentary group and party board supports letting forward Löfven as PM by voting blank in the PM vote. Tomorrow, the final decision will be taken by the party council with 50 delegates from local party districts.

The Liberals are expected to follow the same path, although they are significantly more divided. 8 of 20 MPs have recommended supporting Kristersson in public. The party's parliamentary group and party board will meet tomorrow, and make a recommendation for the party council on Sunday.

Lööf is again very harsh towards the Left party. Claiming that they will be kept away from influence. She says they have driven Sweden leftwards during the last term; a development that will now be stopped. So she is daring them to vote no to Löfven, which would be hard for them. What other solution should the Left Party recommend instead? Their only other option seems total isolation. In this solution, they will get some things they want on environment and mass migration. However, they will look subservient if they just accept this S-C-L-MP deal without getting anything significant back. I still lean towards them allowing Löfven with a blank vote, but probably with a very harsh criticism of the agreed deal and a tough opposition stance during the term where they are likely to rise significantly.
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Diouf
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« Reply #863 on: January 12, 2019, 09:12:22 am »

C party council massively supports the deal with Löfven. 56-2 was the vote with only two representatives for C students voting against. Illustrates the fact that C has been much more united in seeking an accord with the centre-left than the Liberals
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Diouf
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« Reply #864 on: January 12, 2019, 12:30:50 pm »

Liberal's parliamentary group and party board recommends letting forward Löfven, but with more dissent. The vote was 13-7 in the parliamentary group, and 17-8 in the party board. Tomorrow, the party council will make the final decision.

Not a word has been uttered by the Left Party's leadership yet. However, former leader Lars Ohly states that the party has been humiliated by this deal (correct) and that they should not let forward Löfven with this deal.
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Diouf
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« Reply #865 on: January 13, 2019, 04:14:02 am »

Inizio poll of the words voters choose to describe their feeling about the agreement.

From the top: Disappointment, distrust, resignation, relief, concerned, angry, hopeful, confident, happy, proud, none of the above, don't know.

So M, KD and SD voters quite uniformly chose the five negative words (disappointment, distrust, resignation, concerned, angry). V voters mostly relieved, but certainly some dissent already visible. For L+C, there is relief, hope, confidence and happiness, but also 10-15% for each of the three top negative words. S+MP are very relieved, hopeful and confident and the negative choices only picked by 5-7%.

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Diouf
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« Reply #866 on: January 13, 2019, 05:39:44 am »

MP's party board accepts the deal as well. Hardly surprising.
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Diouf
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« Reply #867 on: January 13, 2019, 08:33:45 am »

News bureau TT writes that "The Left Party leans towards voting no to Löfven". The Party Board will have a meeting today, and then the parliamentary group will meet tomorrow before Sjöstedt go to meet the Speaker. The article states that the decision is for the parliamentary group to make, but that they generally follow the advice of the Party Board in major decisions. TT estimates that there will probably be a majority against the deal in both the board and in parliament. Both due to the specific right-wing economic policies, and the deliberate humiliation of the Left Party (the statements about them not getting any influence).
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Diouf
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« Reply #868 on: January 13, 2019, 09:27:55 am »

Liberals' party council votes to support the deal with 62-30. So now we await the Left Party's decision.
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Diouf
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« Reply #869 on: January 13, 2019, 11:43:05 am »

If the Left Party is to reject the deal now and don't let forward Löfven, the most sensible way today is probably to ask for negotiations around the deal to make it acceptable for them. In that way, they can perhaps avoid some of the blame if we end up without a Löfven government. This government formation surely has given more exctitement than one could reasonbly ask for. We have just seen a Liberal party council live streamed for hours on the state broadcaster with a majority of the members explaining their decision by stating just how awful it would be to support a government dependent on SD. Are they now just going to turn 180 degrees in a few days and do exactly that if the Left Party rejects the deal? That would really be something. And even if they did, would SD accept such a government?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #870 on: January 13, 2019, 12:29:28 pm »

  So if S was against family reunification of immigrants, are they developing an immigration policy closer to SD than the other parties?
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jaichind
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« Reply #871 on: January 13, 2019, 03:08:35 pm »

How will the vote work?   

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right? 
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against. 
I read that C(31) will abstain. 
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ? 
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?
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Aboa
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« Reply #872 on: January 13, 2019, 03:15:35 pm »

How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as to get confirmed government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #873 on: January 13, 2019, 03:17:06 pm »

How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.

Ah.  Got it.  Thanks for this.
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Diouf
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« Reply #874 on: January 13, 2019, 03:35:55 pm »

  So if S was against family reunification of immigrants, are they developing an immigration policy closer to SD than the other parties?

Well, closer than V, MP, C and L yes. Not that a position to the right of them will necessarily tell you much Smiley But yes , they have tightened their policies, and were the driving force for the government to introduce some stricter laws when the refugee crisis was at its highest. However, they are still aggressively opposed to SD in the migration area, calling them racists etc. And were willing to make concessions in the government negotiations, so I wouldn't say they have moved nearly as much as the Danish Social Democrats for example.
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