Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[FredLindq]

Rumours has it now tha V votes No.

If so there is a majority against Löfvén.

[Diouf]

Would be interesting to see what the Speaker does if that is indeed what V tells him?
Will he put forward Löfven anyway? It would be kind of weird if he did not when there has been a lot of energy and time devoted to this agreement, which is the biggest movement during the whole process. Of course, you can also argue that it would be weird to put forward Löfven twice in a row, without a majority. Perhaps also depends on the exact message of V. If they go for the "we are ready to negotiate about the agreement" line, then the Speaker would probably be more justified to put forward Löfven perhaps as there is then at least a theoretical chance that they could be convinced to vote blank.

[Diouf]

Left Party rejects the deal, and says it will not let forward Löfven under this agreement. Sjöstedt recommends that Kristersson is put forward for the PM vote, since the M-KD budget is the agreed budget for the year. He says they will have discussions with Löfven to remove the intolerable things from the agreement, so that they can let him forward.

[Gustaf]

Lolllllll

This is fantastic. I get where V is coming from though. This is going to be a nightmare negotiation for everyone.

[The Lord Marbury]

Note that Sjöstedt said that he didn't require anything in writing or it was changes to the agreement with the C, L and MP which he prioritized. It rather sounds like he'd settle for a handshake and gentleman's agreement with Löfven where the Social Democrats promise continue to working with V on issues outside of the four-party agreement and protect things that V got in the budget negotiations during the previous term in the forthcoming negotiations with C, L and MP.

Björklund also said in his press conference that it wouldn't a problem if S pushed for things in budget negotiations where Sjöstedt happened to be of the same opinion, and since a lot of if not all of the things V got during the past term are also things that S likes there could be a way out there. Maybe Löfven will give some assurances that S will protect and push for things like free medicine for children, free buss passes for youth during the summer holidays and tax deductions for union memberships in the budget negotiations.

[Diouf]

Speaker Norlen announces that he postpones the PM process by two days to allow for Löfven to gather enough support. So there will be a new Speaker round on Wednesday, then the Speaker will put forward his PM candidate. The vote will then be on Friday.

So now a few days to make an agreement as described by Lord Marbury above

[The Lord Marbury]

Sjöstedt says that V will abstain in the vote on Friday and let Löfven form a government, with the threat that the party will put forward a vote of no confidence later in the term if the government presents proposals before parliament that would weaken the Employment Protection Act and liberalise rent control regulations for new flats.

I wonder how C and L will react to this since those two proposals were two of their biggest victories in the agreement with the Social Democrats.

[Diouf]

Löfven elected PM with a S-MP government.  115 voted yes (S + MP), 77 voted blank (C+V+L), 153 voted against (M-SD-KD).

A fairly long government formation by Swedish standards. Despite C and L drawing out the negotiations quite a lot, the direction of travel seemed clear throughout the process. The two parties' ideological commitment to mass migration/opposition to SD meant that there seemed a very little chance of them accepting a Kristersson government. Even after the two times, they voted down Löfven there was no indication that they would turn towards Kristersson. So looking at the S-C-L-MP deal, you can argue that S should/could have negotiated even tougher as C/L were never likely to choose another PM than him, and a new election looked likely to develop favourably for S and the centre-left. However, the final declaration of whether they conceded too much can probably only be made after the government has come to an end and its policies can be judged. Several of the proposed policies in the agreement are meant to go to commissions etc., and then a real agreement on the specifics are to be reached.

[The Lord Marbury]

Löfven has just delivered his policy statement to the Riksdag and announced the members of his cabinet. The Greens have dropped from six to five ministers after the losses they suffered in the election, while the Social Democrats stay at 17, including the Prime Ministers. Six ministers are departing the government, three of whom were known before today. No big surprises with individuals without a lot of political experience like was the case with Alice Bah Kuhnke or Annika Strandhäll in 2014, pretty much all of the new names are experienced politicians to various degrees.

Ministers who retain their previous portfolios
Magdalena Andersson, 51 (S) - Minister for Finance
Peter Hultqvist, 60 (S) - Minister for Defence
Margot Wallström, 64 (S) - Minister for Foreign Affairs. Pretty much the same responsibilites that she had during the previous term, but she loses the Nordic cooperation issues to Ann Linde.
Tomas Eneroth, 52 (S) - Minister for Infrastructure. The same job he had before, but he moves from the Ministry of Enterprise to become head of a new Ministry of Infrastructure.
Morgan Johansson, 48 (S) - Minister for Justice and Migration. Briefly lost responsbility for migration policy to Heléne Fritzon following Anders Ygeman’s resignation in 2017 when he also became Minister for Home Affairs. Now he is responsible for the same areas as he was when first appointed in 2014.
Ann Linde, 57 (S) - Minister for Trade and Nordic Cooperation. Handled trade during the past term as well, but loses responsibility for EU affairs to Hans Dahlgren whilst gaining the Nordic cooperation issues from Margot Wallström.
Ardalan Shekarabi, 40 (S) - Minister for Public Administration. Keeps the public administration portfolio he had during the previous term but gets added responsibility for consumer affairs which have been on Per Bolund’s table for the last four years.

Ministers who get new portfolios
Mikael Damberg, 47 (S) - Minister for Home Affairs. Was Minister for Enterprise and Innovation during the previous term
Peter Eriksson, 60 (MP) - Minister for International Development. Was Minister for Housing and Digitalization during the previous term
Lena Hallengren, 45 (S) - Minister for Social Affairs. Was Minister for Children, the Elderly and Gender Equality towards the end of the last term after Åsa Regnér left the government in early 2018 to take up a UN position.
Annika Strandhäll, 43 (S) - Minister for Social Security. She returns to the job she had before 2017, when she was appointed Minister for Social Affairs after Gabriel Wikström’s resignation
Anna Ekström, 59 (S) - Minister for Education. Was Minister for Upper Secondary Schools and Adult Education during the previous term after being appointed in 2016 following Aida Hadzialic’s resignation.
Isabella Lövin, 55 (MP) - Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Environment and Climate Change. The co-leader of the Greens was Minister for International Development and Climate Change during the previous term.
Ibrahim Baylan, 46 (S) - Minister for Enterprise. Was Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy in the Prime Minister’s Office from 2016 and before that he was Minister for Energy in the Environment Ministry.
Per Bolund, 47 (MP) - Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Housing. Was also the deputy in the Finance Ministry during the last four years, but now gets to handle housing as well.

New ministers
Hans Dahlgren, 70 (S) - Minister for EU Affairs, was previously Stefan Löfven’s State Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office. One of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Social Democrats, having first started in the Foreign Ministry during the 1970s, later working directly under Social Democratic Prime Ministers Olof Palme, Ingvar Carlsson, Göran Persson and lastly Stefan Löfven.
Matilda Ernkrans, 45 (S) - Minister for Higher Education and Research, former Chair of the Riksdag’s Education Committee
Jennie Nilsson, 46 (S) - Minister for Rural Affairs. Former Deputy Chair of the Riksdag’s Enterprise Committee and Mayor of Hylte municipality in Halland before being elected to parliament.
Amanda Lind, 38 (MP) - Minister for Culture and Democracy. Former Party Secretary of the Greens and before that Deputy Mayor of Härnösand
Åsa Lindhagen, 38 (MP) - Minister for Gender Equality with added responsibilities for anti-discrimination and anti-segreation issues. Former MP and Deputy Mayor for Social Affairs in Stockholm from 2014 to 2018.
Anders Ygeman, 48 (S) - Minister for Energy and Digitalization. Former leader of the Social Democratic parliamentary group and before that Minister for Home Affairs under Löfven until his resignation under the threat of a vote of no confidence in 2017.

Leaving the government
Gustav Fridolin, 35 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Education, leaving politics and returning to teaching after the Greens elect a new co-leader in May.
Heléne Fritzon, 58 (S) - fmr. Minister for Migration, running for the European Parliament
Alice Bah Kuhnke, 47 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Culture and Democracy, running for the European Parliament
Sven-Erik Bucht, 64 (S) - fmr. Minister for Rural Affairs
Helene Hellmark Knutsson, 49 (S) - fmr. Minister for Higher Education and Research
Karolina Skog, 42 (MP) - fmr. Minister for the Environment

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

[Diouf]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

[mgop]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

well it doesn't really matter, we are 3,5 years from next election

[Lord Halifax]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

well it doesn't really matter, we are 3,5 years from next election

From the next ordinary election. An extra election before then is more likely than not.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

well it doesn't really matter, we are 3,5 years from next election

From the next ordinary election. An extra election before then is more likely than not.

The Left Party won't trigger an early election if there is any chance of M-KD-SD winning a majority. Can you imagine them voting No confidence  in Löfven and we get a dark blue government. They'd never be forgiven by their own voters.

As for the Liberals, they're more scared of an early election than any other party.

The marriage between the left and the liberal parties might be a shot-gun marriage, but the alternatives for all involved parties would be much worse than sticking it out until the term is over, so I can't see any reason to think there'd be an early election.

[Gustaf]

Lol Swedish Christian Democrats at 12% in new Sentio poll. What the hell is happening?

C+L supporting Löfven's left wing government, Ebba Busch Thor being more charismatic/popular than Ulf Kristersson to pick up those votes. Also this latest poll was carried out just after KD opened for negotiations with SD on specific policy issues, something all parties had rejected so far. In that way, the party has taken the lead in creating a common right wing alternative to the current majority.

In the Sentio Poll, M-KD-SD have 49.3%, while the current centre-left majority is on 48.0%. And with L and MP under the threshold, there is a clear majority for the conservative opposition.

well it doesn't really matter, we are 3,5 years from next election

From the next ordinary election. An extra election before then is more likely than not.

The Left Party won't trigger an early election if there is any chance of M-KD-SD winning a majority. Can you imagine them voting No confidence  in Löfven and we get a dark blue government. They'd never be forgiven by their own voters.

As for the Liberals, they're more scared of an early election than any other party.

The marriage between the left and the liberal parties might be a shot-gun marriage, but the alternatives for all involved parties would be much worse than sticking it out until the term is over, so I can't see any reason to think there'd be an early election.

I agree. It'll be a bit lol once L and C manage to get an unprecedently conservative government with SD Reliance elected though. Good job from them.

[Diouf]

New Liberal leader questions left-liberal cooperation



The Burundian-born Nyamko Sabuni has been elected the new leader of the Liberals. Sabuni was one of the critics of the party's decision to support the Social Democrats after the 2018 election, and she has been critical of the too leninent immigration policies of her party and country. She has described the country's integration policies as "a gigantic societal failure" and said that the lenient immigration policies, including those in the left-liberal governance agreement, were naive and increased the risk that Sweden would face another situation like in 2015 and 2016 with massive influxes it cannot control. She argued that a multicultural society "was nothing to strive for" and that this vision has instead caused segregated and isolated cultures. Rejected asylum seekers should be deported much faster, and should not get second chances to stay in Sweden, and she also wants more discipline in schools, and a bigger economic benefit for going from unemployment to work.
The question is whether the divided Liberals will be able to reconcile their differences on immigration, and on whether the Liberals should stay a part of the left-liberal majority cooperation.
Sabuni became a MP in 2002, and then served as Minister of Integration and Equality 2006-2010, and Minister of Equality and Deputy Education Minister 2010-2013. Since then she has worked in the private sector and didn't run in the 2014 or 2018 election.

[Lord Halifax]

The Burundian-born Nyamko Sabuni

Her parents were Congolese refugees. Her place of birth isn't that relevant.

[Tender Branson]

Löfven has just delivered his policy statement to the Riksdag and announced the members of his cabinet.

Amanda Lind, 38 (MP) - Minister for Culture and Democracy. Former Party Secretary of the Greens and before that Deputy Mayor of Härnösand

I think Löfven made a big gamble allowing her into his cabinet, considering she could potentially hide Lord Voldemort on the backside of her turban ...

[Diouf]

The first time since SD emerged that one of the other party leaders sit down for discussions on policy cooperation with the party. Kristersson from the Moderates said he does not plan to meet with Åkesson, but is pretty vague on whether there could be an opening for cooperation soon. New Liberal party leader Sabuni says that the party is not negotiating with SD, but also said that "when we get closer to the 2022 election, we will sit down and look at the political map before making decisions about the future". Annie Lööf is, of course, extremely critical of KD getting closer to SD.

https://twitter.com/jimmieakesson/status/1146049893968109568

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can we change the title of this thread?